Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Fell 2.3
Percent in January from December
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BTS 11-09
Dave Smallen
202-366-5568 |
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Wednesday, March 11, 2009
- The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) fell 2.3 percent in January from its December level, falling for the third consecutive month to its lowest level in more than five years, the U.S. Department of Transportation’s
Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today (Table 1).
The January
decline was the fifth monthly decrease in six months. The index has declined 7.7 percent in the
last six months, the largest six-month decline since an 8.4 percent decline in
1995. The 5.9 percent decline in the
three-month November through January period was the largest three-month decline
since April 2000 (Tables 1, 2).
The 2.3 percent
decline in January was the second January decline in five years and the largest
January decline since 1996. The index dropped 0.3 percent in 2007 (Table 3).
At 102.7 in January,
the freight TSI is at its lowest level since May 2003 when it was 102.5 and is down
9.2 percent from its historic peak of 113.1 reached in November 2005. For
additional historical data, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
The freight TSI measures the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire freight
transportation industries. The index
consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and
air freight.
The
7.8 percent decline from January to January left the freight index at its
lowest January level since 2002 (Table 4).
The 2.3 percent
decline in January resulted in a 3.5 percent drop in the freight index in the
five years from January 2004, the second five-year decline in the 19-year history
of TSI data. The first ever five-year
decline was a 2.7 percent decrease from December 2003 to December 2008. The index is still up 2.9 percent in 10 years
(Table 5).
The TSI is a seasonally
adjusted index that measures changes from the monthly average of the base year
of 2000. It includes historic data from
1990 to the present. Release of the February index is scheduled for April
8.
BTS has issued
a technical report explaining the TSI. BTS Technical Report: Transportation Services
Index and the Economy is available for download at
https://www.bts.gov/pdc/index.xml in the BTS bookstore.
Transportation Services
Index for Passengers
The TSI for passengers fell 0.3 percent
in January from its December level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI January 2009 level of 112.6 was 3.8 percent lower than
the January 2008 level, the first January-to-January decrease since 2002 (Table
7). The 3.8 percent decline from January to January left the passenger index at
its lowest January level since 2006 (Table 7). Despite the recent declines for
the year, the passenger index is up 13.5 percent in five years and 20.6 percent
in 10 years (Table 5).
The passenger TSI measures the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire passenger
transportation industries. The seasonally
adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.
Combined Freight and Passenger Index
The combined
freight and passenger TSI fell 1.8 percent in January from its December level
(Table 8). The combined TSI January 2009 level of 104.8 was 6.8 percent lower
than the January 2008 level, the first January-to-January decrease since 2007 (Table 9). The 6.8 percent decline from January
to January left the combined index at its lowest January level since 2004 (Table
9). However, the combined index is up 0.5 percent in five years and 7.2 percent
in 10 years (Table 5).
The combined TSI
merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.
More on TSI
NOTE: TSI numbers for September (Freight, Passenger and Combined)
were revised because of revisions in the output data of the component
transportation services. The September Freight TSI is 107.0, revised from the 108.0 reported in last month’s release. The September Passenger
TSI is 116.3, revised from 114.9. The September
Combined TSI is 108.9, revised from 109.4. The
TSI for October, November, December and January are
preliminary.
TSI
revision policy: TSI is updated monthly with the latest four months’ index
numbers considered preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest
preliminary TSI, and replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised
TSI. More information about the monthly revision policy, the
comprehensive revision conducted in July 2007 and the TSI index is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml
Table 1: Freight,
Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes since July 2008
Percent Change by
Month
(Seasonally Adjusted,
Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
July |
111.3 |
1.4 |
118.3 |
0.0 |
112.6 |
1.0 |
August |
108.7 |
-2.3 |
116.8 |
-1.3 |
110.3 |
-2.0 |
SeptemberR |
107.0 |
-1.6 |
116.3 |
-0.4 |
108.9 |
-1.3 |
OctoberP |
109.1 |
2.0 |
114.3 |
-1.8 |
110.1 |
1.1 |
NovemberP |
107.6 |
-1.4 |
114.0 |
-0.2 |
108.8 |
-1.1 |
DecemberP |
105.1 |
-2.3 |
113.0 |
-0.9 |
106.7 |
-1.9 |
JanuaryP |
102.7 |
-2.3 |
112.6 |
-0.3 |
104.8 |
-1.8 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 2: Freight
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2006-2009
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
0.4 |
-0.3 |
2.8 |
(P) -2.3 |
February |
-1.4 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
|
March |
0.4 |
1.1 |
-2.9 |
|
April |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
1.1 |
|
May |
2.4 |
-0.1 |
0.4 |
|
June |
-0.3 |
-0.7 |
-0.2 |
|
July |
-0.9 |
0.1 |
1.4 |
|
August |
-2.5 |
0.5 |
-2.3 |
|
September |
0.9 |
-0.9 |
(R) -1.6 |
|
October |
-0.1 |
1.7 |
(P) 2.0 |
|
November |
-1.4 |
0.4 |
(P) -1.4 |
|
December |
0.6 |
-1.7 |
(P) -2.3 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation
Services Indexes Year-to-Date Change, 2000-2009
Percent change from December of previous year
December to January
Excel | CSV
2000 |
-0.7 |
0.1 |
-0.5 |
2001 |
1.4 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
2002 |
0.9 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
2003 |
-1.3 |
-0.8 |
-1.2 |
2004 |
-1.5 |
-1.2 |
-1.4 |
2005 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
2006 |
0.4 |
1.9 |
0.8 |
2007 |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
-0.3 |
2008 |
2.8 |
-0.1 |
2.1 |
2009P |
-2.3 |
-0.3 |
-1.8 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 4: Freight
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the January
Freight TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
2000 |
104.2 |
4.4 |
2001 |
99.2 |
-4.8 |
2002 |
98.2 |
-1.0 |
2003 |
103.3 |
5.2 |
2004 |
106.5 |
3.1 |
2005 |
112.9 |
6.0 |
2006 |
111.7 |
-1.0 |
2007 |
108.5 |
-2.9 |
2008 |
111.4 |
2.7 |
2009P |
102.7 |
-7.8 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5:
Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2009 (January to January)
Excel | CSV
2008 |
1 |
-7.8 |
-3.8 |
-6.8 |
2007 |
2 |
-5.3 |
-1.2 |
-4.3 |
2006 |
3 |
-8.1 |
1.6 |
-5.8 |
2005 |
4 |
-9.0 |
4.4 |
-5.9 |
2004 |
5 |
-3.5 |
13.5 |
0.5 |
2003 |
6 |
-0.5 |
16.3 |
3.5 |
2002 |
7 |
4.6 |
23.0 |
9.0 |
2001 |
8 |
3.6 |
10.9 |
4.8 |
2000 |
9 |
-1.5 |
18.1 |
3.4 |
1999 |
10 |
2.9 |
20.6 |
7.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: The percent changes to January 2009 are all
preliminary.
Table 6: Passenger
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2006-2009
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
1.9 |
-0.1 |
-0.1 |
(P) -0.3 |
February |
-0.6 |
-2.0 |
-0.5 |
|
March |
1.0 |
2.2 |
0.8 |
|
April |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
|
May |
0.6 |
1.5 |
0.1 |
|
June |
-1.0 |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
|
July |
0.5 |
-0.1 |
0.0 |
|
August |
0.0 |
1.1 |
-1.3 |
|
September |
0.9 |
-0.1 |
(R) -0.4 |
|
October |
0.4 |
0.7 |
(P) -1.8 |
|
November |
-0.2 |
-1.5 |
(P) -0.2 |
|
December |
1.1 |
0.7 |
(P) -0.9 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 7: Passenger
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the January
Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
2000 |
95.3 |
2.1 |
2001 |
101.6 |
6.5 |
2002 |
91.5 |
-9.9 |
2003 |
96.8 |
5.8 |
2004 |
99.2 |
2.5 |
2005 |
107.9 |
8.7 |
2006 |
110.9 |
2.8 |
2007 |
114.0 |
2.8 |
2008 |
117.1 |
2.7 |
2009P |
112.6 |
-3.8 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 8: Combined Transportation
Services Index Monthly Changes, 2006-2009
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
0.8 |
-0.3 |
2.1 |
(P) -1.8 |
February |
-1.2 |
-0.5 |
-0.1 |
|
March |
0.6 |
1.4 |
-2.0 |
|
April |
-0.1 |
-0.2 |
1.0 |
|
May |
2.0 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
|
June |
-0.4 |
-0.6 |
-0.1 |
|
July |
-0.6 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
|
August |
-1.9 |
0.7 |
-2.0 |
|
September |
0.9 |
-0.7 |
(R) -1.3 |
|
October |
0.1 |
1.4 |
(P) 1.1 |
|
November |
-1.1 |
-0.1 |
(P) -1.1 |
|
December |
0.7 |
-1.1 |
(P) -1.9 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 9: Combined Transportation
Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the January
Combined TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
2000 |
101.4 |
3.7 |
2001 |
100.0 |
-1.4 |
2002 |
96.2 |
-3.8 |
2003 |
101.3 |
5.4 |
2004 |
104.3 |
2.9 |
2005 |
111.3 |
6.8 |
2006 |
111.2 |
-0.1 |
2007 |
109.5 |
-1.6 |
2008 |
112.5 |
2.7 |
2009P |
104.8 |
-6.8 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Brief Explanation
of the TSI
The
Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes
in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.
The
TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or
decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other
economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future
course of the economy. The movement of
the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand
the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross
Domestic Product (GDP).
The freight transportation index consists of:
For-hire
trucking,
Railroad
freight services
(including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland
waterways transportation,
Pipeline
transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and
natural gas), and
Air
freight.
The
index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private
trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local
transit,
Intercity
passenger rail, and
Passenger
air transportation.
The
index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services,
taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized
transportation.
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