Science Impact
Research Summaries
Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM)
— To reduce risk from the vagaries of the stock market and the economy, investors select financial portfolios based on their financial objectives and tolerance to risk. The USGS Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) was developed as a tool for communities to preserve life and property assets reflected in land use from the vagaries of nature and natural hazards. The LUPM is a modeling, mapping, and risk communication tool that can assist public agencies and communities in understanding and reducing their natural-hazards vulnerability. The LUPM builds upon financial-portfolio theory, a method for evaluating alternative investment choices based on the estimated distribution of risk and return from different investment possibilities. The conceptual model has been developed into an interactive, GIS-based decision support system (DSS) that stakeholders can use to select locations in which to invest a hazard mitigation budget, evaluate metrics such as the mean and variance of community wealth, and compare and rank policies. The model is unique in that it allows users to think through various levels of risk tolerance and hazard acceptability and allows users to compare the cost effectiveness of different policy alternatives. During FY 2005, the LUPM was applied successfully in addressing earthquake risk in the Memphis, Tennessee area (see below) and in addressing risk mitigation in the event of severe flooding in Squamish, British Columbia (see below).
In FY 2006, the LUPM will be enhanced to incorporate: a temporal component, the ability to assessing interdependent multi-hazards probabilities, a spatial covariance term, and a capability to evaluate environmental issues.
Contact:
Richard Bernknopf, Western Geography Science Center,
rbern@usgs.gov
Developing Tools to Improve the Application of Science Information to Inform Earthquake Risk Mitigation Decisions in the City of Memphis and Shelby County, Tennessee
— In the winter of 1811-12, the central Mississippi Valley was struck by three of the most powerful earthquakes in U.S. history. Even today, this region has more earthquakes than any other part of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains. Government agencies, universities, and private organizations are working to increase awareness of the earthquake threat and to reduce loss of life and property in future shocks.
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| Isoseismal map for the earthquake of December 16,1811, 08:15 UTC. |
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This 19th century woodcut depicts damage from the 1811 earthquake near New Madrid, Missouri. |
Geographic information systems (GIS), with their ability to integrate disparate geospatial data, are important tools for understanding and communicating the spatial distribution of risks associated with seismic hazards in regional economies. While hazard mitigation decisions typically are made by property owners, their choices are often affected by external policies implemented on regional scales (taxes, building codes, ordinances and regulations). These policies not only affect the vulnerability of particular locations, they also have economic consequences (effects on property values, insurance costs, tax rates, etc). For this reason, determining the effectiveness of any one policy requires an approach that integrates GIS-based regional risk assessments with analyses of the economic consequences of different mitigation policies
The USGS Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) is a GIS-based modeling, mapping, and risk communication tool that can assist public agencies and communities in understanding and reducing their natural-hazards vulnerability. It incorporates aspects of financial-portfolio theory, which evaluates alternative investment choices based on the estimated distribution of risk and return for different investment scenarios. The LUPM has been developed into an interactive decision support system (DSS) that stakeholders can use to select locations in which to invest a hazard mitigation budget, evaluate metrics such as the mean and variance of community wealth, conduct probabilistic risk assessments, estimate damage excedance probabilities, and compare and rank mitigation policies. The DSS is unique in that it allows users to think through various levels of risk tolerance and hazard acceptability and allows users to compare the cost effectiveness of different policy alternatives.
Application of the LUPM/DSS in Memphis, TennesseeThe city of Memphis, Tennessee and surrounding Shelby County has a dense urban population near faults capable of producing major earthquakes, a 25-40% probability of a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake in the next 50 years, and relatively low regional attenuation (in other words, seismic waves do damage over a greater area in this region than for the same magnitude earthquake in the western U.S.). Because of these attributes, Memphis was chosen as a test site to evaluate the LUPM/DSS as a tool to assist local government agencies in assessing the economic consequences of alternative hazard mitigation strategies.
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Memphis, Tennessee, a major inland port and transportation hub, has a dense urban population near faults capable of producing major earthquakes. |
The initial phase of the project (2004-2005) involved an analysis of hypothetical mitigation strategies that compare the benefits and costs of structural mitigation for new commercial buildings. Various scenarios were conducted for ~12,000 vacant commercial parcels, using a hypothetical mix of structures with a total estimated value of $9.6 billion. Scenarios were run with and without geologic risk information, with estimated mitigation costs of 10% and 30% of new building values, and with planning horizons of zero, 20 and 50 years. Preliminary results demonstrate a) that geologic risk information can substantially reduce costs by enabling more effective targeting of mitigation efforts, and b) that the choice of planning horizon markedly affects present-value estimates of mitigation benefits and costs.
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Using GIS, the data layer for vacant commercial parcels (red polygons) was intersected with the liquefaction potential data layer to select out parcels with a 60% or greater risk of liquefaction. |
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| The LUPM/DSS works together with ArcGIS. The program allows users to construct various scenarios by entering different event probabilities, mitigation strategies and costs, and planning horizons. The model computes estimated mitigation costs, asset wealth lost, asset wealth retained, and associated standard deviations of each estimate. |
Next Steps: Web Enabling the LUPM/DSS
Recent efforts have focused on the development of a prototype web-based version of the LUPM/DSS, with the goal of providing local officials with a widely available and easy to use tool to evaluate various hazard mitigation policy scenarios. The prototype web LUPM/DSS will initially focus on publicly owned properties such as schools, fire stations, and police stations. The web version, which will be demonstrated in Memphis in October of this year, will be refined and expanded with additional data and functionality as the project continues into 2007.
Contacts:
Richard Bernknopf,
rbern@usgs.gov
Paul Hearn,
phearn@usgs.gov
— The USGS is working with Natural Resources Canada to develop new ways for decision makers and planners in the transboundary Puget Sound area (Vancouver, British Columbia - Seattle, Washington region) to apply scientific information about natural hazards and the potential risks to communities. In FY 2005, the USGS Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) decision support system was used in the District of Squamish for a preliminary demonstration evaluation of risk mitigation alternatives for multiple flood events. Squamish is planning for a sharp increase in population as a result of the Vancouver Winter Olympic Games to be held in 2010. The LUPM will be used by practitioners to quantify and analyze hazard and risk scenarios to assess community vulnerability and risk to hazards and the impact that proposed mitigation strategies may have on reducing that risk. In FY 2005, initial results for the vulnerability-risk analysis framework for flood events were presented in a workshop in Squamish. The workshop objective was to pilot the multi-hazard risk assessment framework to assist the community in evaluating:
Contact:
Richard Bernknopf, Western Geographic Science Center, rbern@usgs.gov
Understanding Societal Vulnerability to Tsunamis and Other Natural Hazards
— With the recent disasters in the Indian Ocean and in the U.S. Gulf Coast, reducing potential losses from natural hazards in coastal communities is one of the critical issues of the 21st century. To reduce potential losses, public and private decision makers must understand the hazards in their communities and their vulnerability to these hazards. The USGS is helping local and state practitioners and community members by augmenting its traditional expertise in natural hazards with improved capacity to assess vulnerability, defined here as the exposure, sensitivity, and resilience of a community. With this knowledge, local and state land use managers will be able to develop resilient and sustainable communities. Emergency managers will be able to prioritize limited resources in the development of realistic and efficient preparedness and mitigation efforts. Private individuals will be able to develop risk-reduction plans for their families and businesses.
Recent USGS research efforts have focused on assessing the vulnerability of coastal communities in Oregon to catastrophic tsunamis and providing training opportunities to assess pre-event vulnerability and post-disaster recovery. This combination of efforts provides a holistic approach to risk analysis and shifts discussions of risk from simple inventories of exposed assets to community-wide understanding of system resilience. Specific project elements include:
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| Recent research suggests that a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could create tsunami waves that impact over 1,000-km of coastline in the U.S. and Canada. To understand local community vulnerability posed by these hazards, USGS researchers are assessing variations in land-cover and land-use patterns, demographic characteristics, business and employment patterns, and level of resilience planning. |
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| Representatives from Hood River County, Oregon, at the 2006 Vulnerability Assessment Workshop, in The Dalles, Oregon, January 25, 2006. | USGS researcher Rachel Sleeter (left) speaking with representatives from U.S. Postal Service and Oregon Department of Transportation at the Post-Disaster Tsunami Recovery Forum in Cannon Beach, Oregon, March 2, 2006. |
A core element of the United States Geological Survey’s (USGS) mission is to provide scientific information to minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters. The risk of natural disaster is a function of the hazards of a place and the land use choices that societies make. The vulnerability of communities to natural hazards is due to a complex interaction of natural processes, land-use decisions and resilience planning. Through efforts like those outlined above, the USGS is committed to improving the Nation’s ability to understand how communities become vulnerable to natural hazards and what can be done to reduce risks.
In FY 2006, the USGS will continue to focus on the vulnerability of Oregon coastal communities to catastrophic earthquakes and tsunamis. Geospatial information gathered in FY 2005 will be analyzed in FY 2006 to determine regional metrics of vulnerability to tsunamis. Results to date indicate the presence of a significant seasonal and workforce population in high hazard zones; therefore, a combination of census data and local knowledge is needed to understand population risk in coastal communities. Results also indicate that many businesses in high tsunami-hazard zones a re the primary employers and economic drivers in coastal communities, suggesting that a tsunami would drastically impact the regional economy. In FY 2006, the USGS will deliver results of this study at a post-tsunami recovery forum to be held in Cannon Beach, Oregon. In addition, the USGS will provide technical content for vulnerability assessment training to support pre-disaster mitigation planning in communities along the Columbia River. The USGS is conducting this research and training opportunity in collaboration with the Oregon Partners for Disaster Resistance and Resilience, a statewide initiative that involves the Oregon Natural Hazards Workgroup.
Contact:
Nathan Wood,
nwood@usgs.gov
For more information on the Science Impact Program, please contact:
Carl D. Shapiro, Ph.D.
U.S. Geological Survey
516 National Center
Reston, VA 20192
(703) 648-4446 (Voice)
cshapiro@usgs.gov
U.S. Department of the Interior
U.S. Geological Survey
URL: http://
www.usgs.gov
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Last Modified:
September 28, 2006
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