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Tropical Storm ODETTE
ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SAT DEC 06 2003
CORRECTED FOR INLAND STATUS IN FORECAST TABLE
THE LAST FIX FROM THE RECON WAS AROUND 17Z AND INDICATED THAT THE
CYCLONE WAS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED BUT WINDS AND PRESSURE REMAIN
AT 55 KNOTS AND 994 MB...RESPECTIVELY. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK T-NUMBERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH AN IMPRESSIVE CURVED BAND TO
THE EAST. THE NORTHERN CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
ALREADY AFFECTING THE BARAHONA PENINSULA AND THE ISLA BEATA WITH
VERY HEAVY SQUALLS. THE WEATHER SHOULD WORSEN OVER HISPANIOLA
TONIGHT AS ODETTE MAKES LANDFALL. SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL
AND ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR ODETTE
TO REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH OR TO PRODUCE HURRICANE FORCE
WIND GUSTS. THEREAFTER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS. ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER
THE ATLANTIC.
ODETTE NOT ONLY HAS REFUSED TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS
ANTICIPATED BUT IN FACT...IT HAS SLOWED DOWN. THE CYCLONE IS NOW
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 6 KNOTS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
SOON BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THIS FORECAST IS NOT DIFFERENT FROM THE SOLUTION PROVIDED
BY GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFDL WAS ABLE TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE LATEST RUN.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/2100Z 17.5N 71.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 19.0N 71.5W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 68.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 08/0600Z 24.5N 64.5W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 08/1800Z 27.5N 59.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
NNNN
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