Tropical Storm ODETTE

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TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SAT DEC 06 2003
 
ODETTE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS ALSO STRENGTHENED DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS BASED ON RECON AND SATELLITE DATA. THE LAST FLIGHT
INTO ODETTE HAD TO BE TRUNCATED DUE TO INTENSE LIGHTNING AND SEVERE
TURBULENCE. THEREFORE...THE MAX WINDS NEAR THE CENTER LIKELY WERE
NOT SAMPLED...BUT RECON STILL FOUND 60 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT
0433Z WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 50 KT SURFACE WINDS MORE THAN 40 NMI
FROM THE RADAR CENTER. A 06/0310Z TRMM OVERPASS ALSO SHOWED AN 80
PERCENT CLOSED LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE...AND AN ELONGATED BUT CLOSED
MID-LEVEL EYE. IN ADDITION...A T3.5/55 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED BY BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/12. THE LAST TWO RECON FIX POSITIONS ALONG
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM MICROWAVE DATA CONFIRMS THAT ODETTE
HAS STARTED MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED.
UNLIKE THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE WAS
SPREAD BETWEEN THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES...THERE IS MUCH
BETTER CONVERGENCE AND AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THIS MORNING ON A
TRACK ACROSS WESTERN TO CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN ABOUT 12
HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
ONCE ODETTE EMERGES OFF THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA BY 24 HOURS
...WITH RAPID ACCELERATION BEGINNING BY 36 HOURS AS A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER...
COMPLETE TRANSITION INTO OR ABSORPTION BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS
EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 12 HOURS...AND THEN BASICALLY BACK ON THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BY 24 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL.
 
NOW THAT ODETTE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR
HAS DECREASED AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE IS VERY LITTLE TIME REMAINING FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT ANOTHER 5
KT INCREASE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
HISPANIOLA SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN ODETTE...AND THE CYCLONE MAY BE
WEAKER THAN INDICATED AT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE ODETTE
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE AREA AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT. THE
GFDL MAKES ODETTE A 74 KT HURRICANE JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THIS
SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE FACT THAT
THE GFDL ALSO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS HISPANIOLA.
 
THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THAT COULD CAUSE POTENTIALLY DEADLY
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0900Z 16.5N  72.2W    55 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 18.2N  71.3W    55 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 20.7N  69.3W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 24.2N  65.8W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 28.5N  60.7W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     09/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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