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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
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Prognostic Discussions
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Valid: May 12 - 16, 2009 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: May 14 - 20, 2009 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: May 06, 2009 |
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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EDT WED MAY 06 2009
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 12 - 16 2009
TODAYS NUMERICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LARGE-SCALE MEAN FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICAN
REGION. MOST SOLUTIONS CALL FOR THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARMTH TO SHIFT INTO THE EAST, ALLOWING A WETTER PATTERN TO SET UP ACROSS THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE CONUS.
YESTERDAYS 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION AND TODAYS 00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION ARE PREFERRED AND ARE WEIGHTED MOST HEAVILY IN THE OFFICIAL
500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND - IN PART DUE TO THEIR BETTER PERFORMANCE OVER THE LAST 60
DAYS. ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUE TO PREDICT A
SIGNIFICANT RIDGE NEAR THE ALEUTIANS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. AN IMPORTANT
DIFFERENCE TODAY BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS IS THAT
THE OPERATIONAL RUNS PREDICT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHILE
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT A MUCH WEAKER TROUGH. DOWNSTREAM, THERE IS REASONABLE
AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS REGARDING THE RISING OF 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES. FINALLY, MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POLAR VORTEX
LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC, CONFINED BY HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING TO THE
WEST, NORTH AND EAST.
THERE IS AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHWEST
ALASKA ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS. THE NORTHERN LIMIT OF THE
PREDICTED WARMTH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED POSITION OF A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL, SOUTHEASTERN, AND INTERIOR
NORTHEASTERN STATES UNDER A RIDGE. AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IS SHOWN FOR NORTHEASTERN ALASKA, THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST (CONUS)
AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES. THESE ANTICIPATED AREAS OF BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE ARE DUE TO NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTS.
THE NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INDICATED OVER THE COASTAL NORTHEAST U.S. ARE
RELATED TO THE EXPECTATION OF COOL AND CLOUDY MARINE LAYER INTRUSIONS.
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER CENTRAL ALASKA AND FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES GENERALLY EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE AREAS OF
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
AND SURFACE FRONTS. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER FAR SOUTHERN
ALASKA, MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST STATES, AND ALONG THE GULF AND ATLANTIC
COASTS INCLUDING MOST OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.
TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF
YESTERDAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE NAEFS TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK, ANALOG
COUNT SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS AND THE OFFICIAL
BLEND, THE CDC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK, THE KLEIN SPECIFICATION FROM THE VARIOUS
MODELS, AND THE CPC AUTOMATIC TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NAEFS PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK,
ANALOG COUNT SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS AND OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS
AND THE CPC AUTOMATIC PRECIPITATION FORECAST. IT IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH
FRONTAL POSITIONS FORECAST BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER (HPC)
FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 14 - 20 2009
INSPECTION OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FOR WEEK 2 REVEALS IMPORTANT TIMING
DIFFERENCES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. THE FORECAST PROBLEM INVOLVES THE SPEED OF A
MID-LATITUDE RIDGE (NOT PHASED WITH THE ALEUTIAN RIDGE) MOVING ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME MODELS AND TOOLS APPEAR TO
BE TOO FAST REGARDING THE ANTICIPATED TRANSITION OF THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FROM THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD
SUGGESTS A REASONABLE COMPROMISE, WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
HEIGHT RISES BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST LATER IN THE WEEK 2 PERIOD. THE
BROAD SCALE RIDGE PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST SHOULD LEAD TO A WET PATTERN AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED
ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5, DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN SHIFT.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON: THE NAEFS TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK,
ANALOG COUNT SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS AND OFFICIAL
BLEND, THE CDC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK, THE KLEIN SPECIFICATION FROM THE VARIOUS
MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, AND THE CPC AUTOMATIC TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON: THE NAEFS PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK,
ANALOG COUNT SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS, THE CDC PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOK, THE NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT
FIELDS, AND THE CPC AUTOMATIC PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS
PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE
MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19930424 - 19690518 - 19960513 - 20050505 - 19810509
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19960514 - 20010423 - 19930426 - 19620424 - 19690519
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 12 - 16 2009
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B A NEVADA B N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B
MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B
PENN A N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL N B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 14 - 20 2009
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N
UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
$$
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Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill,
Model Guidance Used
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