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000 FXUS64 KAMA 042048 CCA AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR TO INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER HEADER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 345 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2008 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE MAINLY AROUND THE SHORT TERM WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP POTENTIAL. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. THIS TROUGH WILL HEAD INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN DIG FURTHER SOUTHWARD...INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ARE MAXIMIZED. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS STRONG SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUES IN RESPONSE TO A 50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. CURRENT RADAR LOOPS INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG THE AXIS OF SURFACE LEE TROUGH. WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER WEST INITIALLY BUT INCREASED POPS AREA WIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT BULK OF THE CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECTED AREAS OF CLOUDS AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY AFFECT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL AND BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR VALUES CAN CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY. CAA AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL LEAD TO PRECIP ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO SLIDE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. NOT EXPECTING A BIG TEMPERATURE CHANGE ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH GIVEN A MORE MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP WITH SURFACE LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL SET UP A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO LOWER TEMPS ON SATURDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. DID KEPT SATURDAY DRY AS MODELS INDICATE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. CLK && .FIRE WEATHER... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME OF THESE STORMS CAN PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL HOWEVER LIGHTNING ACCOMPANYING THESE STORMS CAN POSE A THREAT FOR FIRE STARTS. DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND MONDAY BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. CLK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMARILLO TX 59 70 52 71 46 / 40 70 40 20 10 BEAVER OK 60 68 55 70 45 / 30 60 50 30 10 BOISE CITY OK 55 72 51 70 41 / 50 50 30 20 10 BORGER TX 62 71 57 73 49 / 40 70 40 20 10 BOYS RANCH TX 59 70 54 76 47 / 40 70 30 10 10 CANYON TX 58 72 51 74 44 / 30 70 40 10 10 CLARENDON TX 62 71 56 74 48 / 30 70 50 20 10 DALHART TX 56 70 50 72 43 / 50 60 20 10 10 GUYMON OK 62 70 53 72 45 / 40 60 30 20 10 HEREFORD TX 57 73 51 74 45 / 30 70 30 10 10 LIPSCOMB TX 61 70 57 70 44 / 30 60 50 40 10 PAMPA TX 61 70 57 70 47 / 30 70 40 20 10 SHAMROCK TX 64 73 58 75 48 / 20 60 60 20 10 WELLINGTON TX 65 75 59 78 50 / 20 60 70 20 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 01/05