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000 FXUS65 KABQ 042054 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 254 PM MDT SAT OCT 4 2008 .DISCUSSION.. CURRENTLY...HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST IN WESTERN CANADA SOUTH AND EAST TO NORTHERN ARIZONA AND THE FOUR CORNERS. ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD HAS NOW REACHED A RATON TO DEMING LINE WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING IN FARMINGTON...AND CONVECTION IN DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS TOUCHED OFF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF A RUIDOSO TO TUCUMCARI LINE. ZIPPY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY GUSTED TO 40 MPH AT CLAYTON. THESE SHOULD MOVE SMARTLY OFF INTO TEXAS AS THE MAIN STORM MUSCLE AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST ON THE NOSE OF 100 KT PLUS JET STREAK NOW APPROACHING GALLUP. MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT ON SWINGING TROUGH BASE EASTWARD ACROSS THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY CLEAR OF NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. UPSTREAM WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND LEAVE NW MEXICO IN NORTHWEST FLOW UNTIL RIDGE CORE CENTERS UP ON THE STATE BY MIDWEEK. NEXT NORTHERN PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL COME ASHORE OVER VICTORIA ISLAND IN SOUTHWESTERN CANADA EARLY THURSDAY...AND DIG TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SATURDAY TO PROVIDE A SHOWERY RIPPLE TO AN OTHERWISE CLEAR WEEKEND PICTURE. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...EASTWARD TROUGH SWEEP WILL PROVIDE BOTH THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE FOR GOOD STEADY RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL HAVE TROUBLE BREAKING 70 MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE UNDER A FAIRLY SOLID OVERCAST. STORM PREDICTION CENTER COLLEAGUES HAVE PUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IN FOR SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS JET STREAK DYNAMICS ALOFT COMBINE WITH SOUTH DROPPING COLD FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER COUNTRY...AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT THIS ROUND TO MENTION POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS ADJACENT TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. HAVE CONTINUED TREND SET BY OVERNIGHT COLLEAGUES TO KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE 9000 FEET TO AROUND 4 INCHES THIS ROUND...AS LATE START AND POSSIBLE MIX WITH RAIN AT ONSET WILL LIMIT THE PILEUPS. LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL CROSS OUT OF NEW MEXICO LATE MONDAY MORNING...AND WEST TO EAST SHUT OFF OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE STORY AS WINDS ALOFT VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND SKIES CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL START PUSHING BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS AS THE SUNSHINE RETURNS. INTO TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING IN EARNEST AS RIDGE CORE BUILDS IN WEST OF NEW MEXICO...AND CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES. TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE CHILLY...BUT FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH ONLY SPOTTY DIPS BELOW 32 F IN ISOLATED SPOTS ALONG THE EAST MARGINS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS DOWN LOW. INTO WEDNESDAY...PEAK OF THE WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES OR ABOVE...WITH WEAK SOUTH FLOW RETURNING ACROSS THE STATE FOR MIDWEEK. SHY && .AVIATION... GENERALLY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN LOWLANDS OF THE STATE MOST OF THE NIGHT ...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH IFR AND AT TIMES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE DUE TO MAINLY LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS WILL BE STRATIFIED PRECIPITATION WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BECOME COMMONPLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE STARTING BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING AND AFTER 03Z ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE. SOME SNOW MAY REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH ELEVATIONS AS LOW AS 8500 OR 9000 FEET TOWARD DAWN SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY TO 40 OR 45 MPH WILL LINGER FOR AWHILE INTO THIS EVENING EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SANDIA MOUNTAINS. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 43 && .FIRE WEATHER... MUCH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS A WET LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALOFT AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE HIGHER RH WILL BE MAXIMIZED SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE EAST SLOPES REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD WITH SOMEWHAT LESS RH INCREASE FARTHER TO THE EAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FAVORING SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THOSE GENERAL AREAS WILL AGAIN BE FAVORED SUNDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HIGHER MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO BETWEEN 8500 AND 9500 FEET SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ABOVE 9000 FEET. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO THE EAST. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ESPECIALLY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH A LOWERING IN HUMIDITY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM PASSAGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 47 64 43 68 / 80 40 10 5 GALLUP.......................... 45 61 36 65 / 70 30 10 0 GRANTS.......................... 44 62 36 67 / 80 40 5 5 GLENWOOD........................ 50 72 43 76 / 50 60 10 0 CHAMA........................... 35 58 31 63 / 90 50 20 5 LOS ALAMOS...................... 42 59 38 63 / 80 60 10 5 RED RIVER....................... 34 53 29 56 / 70 40 20 10 TAOS............................ 44 59 36 62 / 80 50 20 10 SANTA FE........................ 45 63 41 65 / 80 60 10 5 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 46 64 42 66 / 80 60 10 5 ESPANOLA........................ 45 67 40 70 / 80 60 10 10 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 53 67 49 71 / 80 70 5 5 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 49 71 44 73 / 80 70 5 5 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 47 65 42 70 / 80 70 5 5 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 50 73 45 74 / 80 70 5 5 SOCORRO......................... 50 73 45 73 / 50 70 5 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 42 60 37 63 / 80 70 5 5 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 46 64 42 67 / 80 70 5 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 51 72 43 72 / 30 60 5 0 RUIDOSO......................... 47 62 40 62 / 30 60 10 0 RATON........................... 46 67 39 66 / 40 30 20 10 LAS VEGAS....................... 45 63 39 64 / 80 50 5 5 ROY............................. 46 63 45 69 / 60 50 10 5 CLAYTON......................... 52 69 47 68 / 40 50 30 10 SANTA ROSA...................... 50 72 45 76 / 50 70 5 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 57 75 51 72 / 30 50 10 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 55 74 49 74 / 20 60 10 0 CLOVIS.......................... 55 74 51 75 / 30 50 20 0 PORTALES........................ 56 76 51 78 / 30 50 20 0 ROSWELL......................... 60 79 54 79 / 10 40 10 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ005>007-011>013. && $$ SHY/43