Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
000 FXUS63 KDDC 231015 CCA AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2008 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT 00 UTC SHOWED A DEEP UPPER TROF THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION WITH A STRONG 100 KT DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION HELPING TO DIG THE TROUGH. THE 500 MB LOW WAS CENTERED AT KDDC WHILE THE VERTICALLY STACKED 850-700 MB WAS LOCATED FARTHER NORTH OVER THE TOP-OAX AREAS. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY WILL REMAIN WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS AS WELL AS STRONG GRADIENT WIND. MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER FORECAST SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA IN THE LAST 8 HOURS. THIS IS AS WELL REFLECTED IN OVER FORECAST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL DDC CWA AS WELL OWING TO MUCH WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAN THE MODELS HAD EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AREA AND AN OVERALL LACK OF PRECIPITATION. WILL EXPECT PRECIPITATION TODAY AND EVENTUALLY SOME IN THE FORM OF SNOWFALL...BUT WITH WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD EXPECT SNOW TO BE MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES AND MELT ON PAVED SURFACES. A SIGNIFICANT AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THIS MORNING IN THE NESS AND RUSH COUNTY AREAS. WIND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A STRONG 850 JET NOSING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THE STRONGEST JET AXIS APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING FROM EAST TO WEST...THEREFORE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLACKEN CONSIDERABLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM PRATT TO HAYS...WHILE REMAINING STRONGER WEST OF A SCOTT CITY TO LIBERAL LINE. WE WILL AGAIN ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 50 MPH. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS. A CLOUDY NIGHT OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST SECTION IS EXPECTED AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE INFLUENCE. NORTHWEST SECTIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. FRIDAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES BUMPING BACK INTO THE 50S AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. DAYS 3-7... THE UKMET/ECMWF/GFS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5 WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. SATURDAY SHOULD BE MILD AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT. DECIDED TO BUMP MAXES INTO THE LOWER 70S AS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW +15C 850MB TEMPS BY 00Z SUN AT DDC. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ADVERTISED TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MAXES MAY BE ACHIEVED AROUND 18Z, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. MAXES WERE LOWER A BIT IN THE NORTH. OUR WESTERN COUNTIES MAY EXPERIENCE A HARD FREEZE MONDAY MORNING IF THE WINDS DROP OFF. WITH WEAK VERTICAL MIXING AND FAIRLY COOL 850MB TEMPS, MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY COOL. SO MAXES WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING BY WED/THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE SO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. MAXES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND REMAIN FAIRLY MILD IN ITS WAKE. THE PATTERN FOR EARLY NOVEMBER LOOKS QUITE BALMY. && .AVIATION... A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF SLOWLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AT DDC/GCK AND PERSIST AT HYS. SOME RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z AT HYS. SNOW MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO 1 MILE AT HAYS FROM 12 TO 16Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 40 31 55 35 / 60 10 0 0 GCK 39 30 56 35 / 60 10 0 0 EHA 43 31 60 38 / 20 10 0 0 LBL 43 32 59 38 / 20 10 0 0 HYS 39 30 50 33 / 90 40 0 0 P28 46 35 55 36 / 50 40 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ030-031- 043>046-063>065-076>080-086>088. WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CDT /2 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085. && $$ FN33/24
