000 FXUS64 KEPZ 090939 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 339 AM MDT SAT MAY 9 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A GENERALLY WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST TODAY AND LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. A PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP DURING THAT PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. && .DISCUSSION... THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS BETWEEN A ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED PATTERN OF DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE GENERALLY HUNG UP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SAC MOUNTAINS...SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT AREA SHOULD ENOUGH MOISTURE BE PRESENT TO FUEL STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE WIND PROFILE OVER THAT AREA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS THAT FORM MAY BE FAIRLY STRONG. SUNDAY WILL BE LESS ACTIVE AS THE WEST FLOW PUSHES THE MOISTURE MORE TO THE EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN ZONES. MOISTURE WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. ON THURSDAY THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OVER THE STATE. ALSO...A NEW FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST...BRINGING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IT. ALSO MODELS PROJECT THAT SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION AS PART OF FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY THAT COULD BE AIDED BY A WEAK TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. THE PATTERN MAY REPEAT ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...VALID 09/1200Z-10/1200Z... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUD BUILD UPS MAINLY EAST OF KELP. ISOLD AFTERNOON TSTM POSSIBLE IN MTN AREA 50 NM E OF KELP. && .FIRE WEATHER... A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE TO EASTERN ZONES. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG EAST SLOPES OF SAC MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY. MOISTURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON SUNDAY BUT WILL RETURN AS PART OF ANOTHER FRONT ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ZONES. WESTERN ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRENGTHENED WESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES. A STRONGER FRONTAL SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY OCCUR NEXT THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH FURTHER WEST INTO THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 94 63 95 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 10 SIERRA BLANCA TX 84 60 87 54 86 / 10 10 0 0 10 LAS CRUCES 95 60 95 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 10 ALAMOGORDO 90 56 91 60 90 / 10 10 0 0 10 CLOUDCROFT 65 46 72 43 71 / 10 10 0 0 10 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 92 57 93 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 SILVER CITY 84 52 85 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 DEMING 93 57 94 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 LORDSBURG 92 57 97 54 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 04/04