Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
000 FXUS65 KPUB 150937 AFDPUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 337 AM MDT WED OCT 15 2008 .SHORT TERM... (TODAY AND TONIGHT) UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. HAD SOME FAIRLY DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING AROUND KPUB...BUT WITH LEVEL LOW NORTH WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE PLAINS...MOST FOG OVER THE EAST HAS DISSIPATED AS OF 09Z. IN FACT...ONSET OF NORTH WINDS HAS PRODUCED STEADY OR RISING TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE EAST...WITH MOST AREAS WELL INTO THE 30S AFTER A BRIEF DIP TO THE FREEZING MARK AROUND MIDNIGHT. DENSE FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF NORTHERLY WIND HERE...MAY TAKE A FEW HOURS TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW STUFF AROUND KALS. HELD ONTO THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING AS PLAINS COULD TAKE ONE LAST DIP TOWARD 32F AFTER SUNRISE AS WINDS WEAKEN. SHOULD BE A COOL FALL DAY OVER ALL OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH CURRENT TEMP GRIDS AND GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO CHILLY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS...WITH CURRENT GRIDS AGAIN IN FINE SHAPE. .LONG TERM... (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) MODELS (EUROPEAN...GFS...AND NAM12) IN NICE AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THURSDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE TO 5 TO 8 DEGREES CELSIUS...MEANING HIGHS TOUCHING THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S HIGH VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM12 GIVES NO QPF FOR THE AREA...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...ON FRIDAY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAYS VALUES BY BOTH NAM12 AN GFS40. SATURDAY PROMISES TO SEE MID LEVEL H7 TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 2 TO 4 DEGREES HIGHER. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S IN THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOST MOUNTAINS AREAS. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US LATTER PART OF WEEKEND AND MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR CWFA. ANY SHOWERS/TSRA WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY BUT THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSRA EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE BEEFED UP...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A GOOD SLUG OF MOISTURE AND DECENT QPF. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER A CATEGORY OR TWO WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GFS AND EUROPEAN BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. EITHER SOLUTION SUPPORTS THE ISOLATED POPS ON TUESDAY...BUT FORECAST OF UPPER LOW OVER KANSAS OR UTAH AFTERWARDS WILL CAUSE UNCERTAINTY IN MIDWEEK FORECAST FOR SURE.-TLM- && .AVIATION...DENSE FOG LOOKS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY ON LATEST SATELLITE LOOP...THUS EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS TO HANG ON FOR A FEW HOURS PAST SUNRISE AT KALS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE. NORTH WINDS AT KPUB AND KCOS HAVE SCOURED OUT PATCHY GROUND FOG FROM EARLIER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING IT TO REAPPEAR AT EITHER SITE THIS MORNING. ONCE FOG CLEARS IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ083>089- 093>099. && $$ 10/13
