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000 FXUS63 KICT 092325 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 625 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009 .AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24HRS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN BUT REMAIN ABOVE MVFR CATEGORIES AS THE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION. JAKUB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009/ DISCUSSION... SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT-SUNDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...TIGHT 800-600MB BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN OK WILL PUSH BACK NORTH/NORTHEAST...WITH INCREASING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THINKING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA...LIKELY MOST WIDESPREAD SUNDAY MORNING-MID AFTERNOON. STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES (WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS) WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS 800-600MB BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO PUSH BACK NORTHEAST. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COULD INCREASE SOME MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST...AS RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER-700 MB MOISTURE SURGES NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD PROMOTE SOME DIME SIZE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY THIS PERIOD. ANTICIPATING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE A BIT MORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...AS GFS AND ECMWF BOTH PROGRESS A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST. GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST SOLUTION...PROGRESSING THE FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH. REGARDLESS...DESPITE STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...BEST UPPER FORCING AND SHEAR COMBO WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...SO CONVECTION COULD BE MORE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED VERY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. DESPITE STRONG INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD BE MEAGER...SO ONLY STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY TRANSPIRE...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE AN ISSUE GIVEN MID-LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH FAST FRONTAL MOVEMENT SHOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. KLEINSASSER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 49 62 47 69 / 20 50 30 20 HUTCHINSON 48 62 46 69 / 30 50 20 20 NEWTON 48 62 46 69 / 20 50 20 10 ELDORADO 48 62 46 69 / 20 50 20 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 49 63 48 68 / 20 50 40 30 RUSSELL 47 64 44 70 / 30 50 20 20 GREAT BEND 47 63 45 69 / 30 50 20 30 SALINA 47 64 45 71 / 20 50 10 10 MCPHERSON 47 63 46 70 / 30 50 20 10 COFFEYVILLE 49 64 48 69 / 10 50 30 20 CHANUTE 48 64 47 69 / 10 50 20 10 IOLA 47 64 47 70 / 10 50 10 10 PARSONS-KPPF 49 64 48 69 / 10 50 30 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
