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Tropical Storm CHRIS
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 03 2006
THE COMBINATION OF DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR AND SHEAR...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE THAT DROPPED SOUTHWARD INTO CHRIS...HAS
TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. CHRIS IS DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 75 N MI RADIUS OF THE CENTER. SOME HEAVY
SHOWERS CONTINUE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ARE AFFECTING PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
WESTWARD INTO HISPANIOLA TODAY.
DATA FROM THE LAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SUGGESTED THAT
CHRIS MAY HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. IF
IT HAS NOT...IT WILL LIKELY DO SO VERY SOON UNLESS SOME DEEP
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER. THE FORECAST RETAINS THE
SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS A
PRECAUTION THAT ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION...SINCE
THE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...CHRIS COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FAIRLY SOON.
THE MOTION CONTINUES BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KT. A
WELL-DEFINED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED TO
THE NORTH OF CHRIS...OR ITS REMNANT...THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS STEERING REGIME WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SYSTEM ON
A 280-285 DEGREE HEADING AT ROUGHLY 10-12 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT
TOO FAR FROM THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/1500Z 20.5N 67.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 20.7N 68.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 21.1N 70.9W 30 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 21.4N 73.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 21.8N 75.2W 30 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 23.0N 80.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 07/1200Z 24.0N 85.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 08/1200Z 25.0N 90.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
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