Tropical Storm CHRIS

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TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006
500 PM EDT WED AUG 02 2006
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
CHRIS HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE.  MAXIMUM 850 MB  FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
WERE 55 KT AND A DROPSONDE SHOWED A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF 55 KT
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT. 
THE VERY SMALL INNER CORE...I.E. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF ORDER
10 N MI...THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY HAS DISAPPEARED. 
FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA NOW SHOW THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE 30 TO 40 N
MI FROM THE CENTER.  ALSO THE PRESENTATION FROM THE SAN JUAN
WSR-88D DOPPLER SUGGESTS A LESS-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ANIMATION OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS ARC CLOUDS EMANATING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE STORM.  ALL OF
THE ABOVE SUGGEST THAT LITTLE INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY IN THE
SHORT TERM.  HOWEVER...THE WIND MAXIMUM COULD CONTRACT AND
INTENSIFICATION RESUME.  NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE STORM AND...BASED ON THE RECON FIX...WHICH IS NEAR THE
5000 FT LEVEL...AND THE RADAR FIXES...WHICH ARE NEAR THE 25000 FT
LEVEL...THE VORTEX IS TILTED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT.  THE
GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FAIRLY CONDUCIVE FOR
THE INTENSIFICATION OF CHRIS...WITH THE STORM LOCATED BETWEEN TWO
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER OTHER GLOBAL
MODELS....SUCH AS THE U.K. MET... SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER WINDS MAY
NOT BE SO CONDUCIVE.  THE LATTER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CHRIS
COULD ENCOUNTER A SHARP EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR
AXIS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS IN AROUND 48 HOURS.  THE CURRENT
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST DELAYS THE STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE
IN COMPARISON TO THE PAST FEW ADVISORIES...AND IS STILL A LITTLE
ABOVE THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY THE SAME AS BEFORE AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE
300/9.  BASED ON THE LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL MODELS...A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS IS PREDICTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD...AND THE DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF
CHRIS IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN.  CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...THE MODEL CONSENSUS CALLS FOR A
MORE WESTWARD MOTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE
GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE THE SOUTHERNMOST OF THE TRACK MODELS
AND THE U.K. MET. IS THE NORTHERNMOST...HOWEVER THE LATTER MODEL
LOSES THE CIRCULATION AFTER 72 HOURS.  THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BY DAYS 4-5.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 19.9N  64.3W    50 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 20.4N  65.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 21.0N  67.4W    60 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 21.3N  69.2W    65 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 21.7N  71.4W    65 KT
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 22.5N  75.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 23.5N  80.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     07/1800Z 24.5N  84.5W    70 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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