Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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000 FXUS63 KSGF 091916 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 216 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA...TO EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONGEST CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE CONCENTRATED JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. RADAR SHOWING SOME RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...BUT MOST OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AND THE JLN ASOS OBSERVATION SHOWED ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIP IN ITS 18Z OB. LOOKS LIKE THE AREA AS A WHOLE IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST AS WELL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING PRETTY MUCH WEST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT THE CWA PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COUNTIES ALONG THE ARKANSAS BORDER. DO BELIEVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON THE ARKANSAS SIDE OF THE LINE WITH ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AND NORTHEAST WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. START TO SEE THE FRONT START TO MOVE NORTH AGAIN INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN UTAH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE DOWN TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF UNDERCUTTING MOS POPS WITH THIS EVENT SUNDAY AS WRF CONTINUES TO SHOW ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING TO PUMP IN DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR INTO THE CWA. ITS REALLY NOT UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT WE SEE THE SURFACE HIGH MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW RETURNS. THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY 12Z TUESDAY...MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. GFS MAY BE SHOWING SOME AFFECTS OF CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION AS IT IS SHOWING A 3+ INCH 6 HOUR QPF ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF WAY LESS ON QPFS WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH DURING THE SAME TIME. STILL...WITH THESE AMOUNTS ALONG WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...WE COULD SEE SOME FLASH FLOODING AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT FAR OUR AND GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES IN FORECASTS BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTIONING ANYTHING IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PRECIP CHANCES POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CLAYCOMB && .AVIATION... THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE 24 FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOWERED VISIBILITIES AT SPRINGFIELD. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WEST. OVERCAST SKIES WILL LINGER FOR THE PERIOD AS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND NORTHERLY FLOW...SPRINGFIELD MAY SEE FOG IN THE MORNING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. KARDELL && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
