...Spring Flood Outlook...
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1...
...AN AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE OSAGE...WHITE...BLACK AND GASCONADE RIVER BASINS THIS SPRING...
...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE NEOSHO RIVER BASIN THIS SPRING...
THE OFFICIAL SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK DATE WAS SELECTED TO SUPPORT THE NOAA NATIONAL SPRING OUTLOOK PRESS BRIEFING WHICH WILL BE HELD ON THURSDAY MARCH 20 2008. THE NATIONAL FLOOD AWARENESS WEEK WILL BE MARCH 17-21 2008.
RIVER FORECAST CENTERS PROVIDE SPRING FLOOD GUIDANCE TO LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES JUST BEFORE THE OFFICIAL SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS ISSUED. ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) HAVE OUTLOOK MODELS THAT TYPICALLY RUN FOR A PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS WHICH PROVIDE NEEDED INFORMATION FOR SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS.
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS INCLUDING THE OSAGE...NEOSHO...WHITE...BLACK AND GASCONADE RIVER BASINS AND AREA LAKES.
CURRENTLY THERE IS MINOR SNOW COVERAGE ACROSS A PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS. ELSEWHERE...NO SNOW COVER EXISTS TO CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. MORE INFORMATION ON SNOW COVER CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB SITE.
http://www.nohrsc.nws.gov
AS OF FEBRUARY 19 2008...THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATED ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL...WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS OUT OF ALL CATEGORICAL DROUGHT INDICES. PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE PAST THREE MONTHS HAVE AVERAGED ONE TO TWO INCHES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE GASCONADE RIVER BASIN.
STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS WERE AVERAGE TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE FOR ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
SURFACE MOISTURE CONDITIONS BASED ON THE CURRENT CROP MOISTURE INDEX INDICATED ABNORMALLY MOIST TO WET ACROSS ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE FOLLOWING ARE SELECTED CURRENT OBSERVED PERCENTAGE OF NORMAL STREAM FLOWS IN THE OZARKS.
CURRENT RIVER 152% JAMES RIVER 357%
PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGES FOR THE WHITE BASIN RESERVOIR.
TABLE ROCK DAM. 85%
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS AREA PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED HYDROLOGICAL PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS).
THE FOLLOWING ARE A FEW SITES IN MISSOURI THAT HAVE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID FEBRUARY 22, 2008 - APRIL 24 2008
LOCATION FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ELK RIVER TIFF CITY 15.0 6.0 7.2 8.2 9.5 12.1 15.7 18.2 20.0 21.0
SPRING RIVER CARTHAGE 10.0 4.9 5.2 5.7 6.4 6.9 8.0 10.3 11.9 13.5 WACO 19.0 6.7 9.1 10.0 11.7 13.1 15.1 17.6 20.4 24.9
SHOAL CREEK JOPLIN 14.0 3.7 4.3 4.9 5.4 6.1 6.6 8.0 9.7 11.6
BIG PINEY FT LEONARD WD 13.0 12.2 12.6 13.6 14.5 14.8 15.5 16.7 17.0 18.0
GASCONADE RIVER HAZELGREEN 21.0 7.5 8.8 10.9 12.1 15.2 17.1 19.4 20.8 23.4 JEROME 15.0 8.1 9.4 10.5 12.3 14.2 15.5 17.1 19.9 23.3
THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH INDICATED A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE 30 TO 90 DAY OUTLOOKS FOR MARCH...APRIL AND MAY INDICATED AN ABOVE AVERAGE TREND FOR TEMPERATURES...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
THE FOLLOWING ARE NORMAL RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES DURING THE SPRINGTIME FOR SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN.
SPRINGFIELD PRECIPITATION AVERAGE FOR MARCH 3.82 INCHES TEMPERATURE AVERAGE FOR MARCH 46.3 DEGREES PRECIPITATION AVERAGE FOR APRIL 4.31 INCHES TEMPERATURE AVERAGE FOR APRIL 55.6 DEGREES PRECIPITATION AVERAGE FOR MAY 4.57 INCHES TEMPERATURE AVERAGE FOR MAY 64.7 DEGREES
JOPLIN PRECIPITATION AVERAGE FOR MARCH 3.62 INCHES TEMPERATURE AVERAGE FOR MARCH 48.2 DEGREES PRECIPITATION AVERAGE FOR APRIL 4.32 INCHES TEMPERATURE AVERAGE FOR APRIL 57.7 DEGREES PRECIPITATION AVERAGE FOR MAY 5.07 INCHES TEMPERATURE AVERAGE FOR MAY 66.1 INCHES
CURRENT PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURE...SOIL MOISTURE...STREAM FLOW...DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND FLOOD SAFETY INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEB SITES:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/WATERWATCH HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TUA/FLOODCLIMATE/FLOODCLIMATE.PHP HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FLOODSAFETY/
USERS OF THIS OUTLOOK ARE ENCOURAGED TO ACCESS THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INFORMATION FOR UPDATES OF METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS THAT CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON FLOOD AND OR FIRE PLANNING.
AN UPDATED SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY MARCH 7 2008.
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