(Union University, Jackson, Miss: NOAA/NWS)
(March 12, 2009) -- NOAA's National Weather Service has issued a report that analyzes forecasting performance and public response during the second deadliest tornado outbreak in U.S. history. The report, Service Assessment of the Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak of February 5-6, 2008, also addresses a key area of concern: why some people take cover while others ride out severe weather.
Dubbed the "Super Tuesday" tornado outbreak, due to the presidential primary elections held that day, 82 tornadoes raked nine states throughout the South, killing 57 people, injuring 350 others and causing $400 million in property damage.
Jack Hayes, director of NOAA's National Weather Service, included a researcher from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Societal Impacts Program on the assessment team to examine why many people did not take action to protect themselves.
In reviewing the public response, the team found that two-thirds of the victims were in mobile homes, and 60 percent did not have access to safe shelter (i.e., a basement or storm cellar). The majority of the survivors interviewed for the assessment sought shelter in the best location available to them, but most of them also did not have access to a safe shelter. Some indicated they thought the threat was minimal because February is not within traditional tornado season. Several of those interviewed said they spent time seeking confirmation and went to a safe location only after they saw a tornado. Many people minimized the threat of personal risk through "optimism bias," the belief that such bad things only happen to other people.
On forecasting performance, the assessment team found that the National Weather Service issued warnings 17 minutes, on average, in advance of all the deadly tornadoes. The agency's Storm Prediction Center had been monitoring the tornado threat for several days. Local forecast offices forewarned communities by issuing hazardous weather outlooks days in advance.
After interviewing local media and citizens in the stricken areas, the assessment team determined that local communities had received the warnings and were aware of the dangerous weather threat. People reported receiving tornado warning information through multiple sources, such as television news stations, sirens, NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards or by word of mouth. People indicated overall satisfaction with National Weather Service performance in forecasting the tornadoes and communicating the danger.
The complete Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak service assessment may be found at http://www.weather.gov/os/assessments/pdfs/super_tuesday.pdf.
(Union University, Jackson, Miss: NOAA/NWS)