000
FXUS62 KKEY 020811
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
308 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2008

.DISCUSSION...
A TYPICAL MID AUTUMNAL OVERNIGHT IS UNDERWAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS BEING DETECTED ACROSS OUR SERVICE AREA...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG THE SERVICE
AREA. SURFACE WISE...A WEAKENING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS HOLDING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...WITH A VAST AREA OF NORTHEAST
WINDS COVERING FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS
INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...AND THE ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT...C-MAN STATION PLATFORM
OBSERVATIONS AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS INDICATE
MOSTLY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
A MOISTURE STARVED MID AND UPPER LEVEL GYRE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY...WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY FORM WELL EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINA COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. DESPITE
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN WELL EAST AND NORTH OF OUR REGION. IN
ADDITION...A DEEPENING NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
WESTERN ATLANTIC CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER DOWN
THE SPINE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HENCE...ONLY ISOLATED POPS WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE INSERTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW...A MIGRATORY RIDGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE
THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF MOIST TONGUE OF PWAT OF
AROUND 1.50 INCHES ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT
LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL PWAT VALUES
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND A
PREDOMINATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 10 PERCENT
POPS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO ABATE TODAY...BEFORE GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO MOST OF THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. HENCE...NO EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES
ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL AT THE KEYW AND KMTH ISLAND TERMINALS THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN 1906...A RECORD 7.88 INCHES OF RAINFALL FELL IN KEY
WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  79 71 81 72 / 20 20 20 10
MARATHON  79 70 81 72 / 20 20 20 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

APA/AL

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