Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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000 FXUS63 KPAH 170553 AAB AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 100 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2008 .DISCUSSION... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS COLD FRONT WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE OVER WEST KY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS STILL A BIT STEEP WHICH SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP OVNGT AND KEEP FOG TO A MIN. HIGH PRESSURE WAS POISED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND SHOULD BUILD IN AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. THE 00Z FRI MODEL RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTN AND OVERNIGHT. IT WILL SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED BUT AS CURRENT GRIDS REFLECT COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES WITH ITS PASSAGE. AT THE VERY LEAST THE SYSTEM WILL NEGATE THE SURFACE HIGH EFFECTS ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A GOOD BIT OF CLOUDS. OTHERWISE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BUT IT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AS WELL AND ATTM WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY POPS. HOWEVER THE 00Z FRI MODEL RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF TSRA. ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED IS ALREADY IN GRIDS AND SEE NO REASON TO ALTER ATTM. AS FOR TEMPS WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED FOR COLLABORATION. DO NOT EXPECT FROST WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S AT MOST LOCALES. && .AVIATION... MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMPLETELY OUT OF WEST KENTUCKY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 KTS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE AREA...LEADING TO LITTLE REASON FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE LATE TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE IN AHEAD OF DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTUALLY MENTIONED A PROB30 FOR VFR -SHRA AT KEVV AND KOWB...DUE TO DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE AND SOME MEAGER LIFT. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$
