[top]
000
FXUS64 KLIX 090911
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
411 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009
.SHORT TERM...
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE GULF COAST REGION PROVIDING FOR A CONTINUATION OF
THE STRING OF DAYS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER
WILL BE IN THE OFFING TODAY WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONFINED TO
THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TO NEAR THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND
DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS
THAT A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT...CHANCE POPS
ARE IN ORDER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY. SPC
HAS OUTLOOKED SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THE RETURN OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY EACH DAY
AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
INDICATE THAT AN ISOLATED THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST. 11
.LONG TERM...
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF STATES WITH CHANCE POPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE OFFING. IT A APPEARS
THAT THE RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. 11
&&
.AVIATION...
KLIX SOUNDING CONTINUES TO INDICATE MOISTURE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET. AS A RESULT...NIGHT TIME LOW LEVEL MVFR
CEILINGS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING WHILE DURING THE DAY ONLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS BETWEEN 3K AND 4K FEET WILL BE OBSERVED.
SOME LIGHT FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH
SUNRISE AND SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT AT MCB AND BTR. 17
&&
.MARINE...
STRONGER WINDS HAVE FORMED AGAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY BETWEEN THE
BARRIER ISLANDS AND MAINLAND. CAUTION HEADLINES WILL ONLY BE NEEDED
IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO
THE AREA THE DISTURBANCE ALONE WILL BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME SH/TS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK SLOWLY MOVING
TROUGH WILL STALL AND WEAKEN NEAR THE COAST MONDAY AND A FEW TS
COULD DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL COMMENCE ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 89 69 87 67 / 10 10 30 20
BTR 90 70 88 69 / 0 10 30 20
MSY 89 72 87 71 / 0 10 30 20
GPT 85 72 85 70 / 0 10 30 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
11/17
[top]
000
FXUS64 KLCH 090902
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
402 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. STRATUS CAN BE SEEN ON THE
IR STREAMING IN OFF THE GULF INTO THE INLAND AREAS. OTHERWISE
IT CONTINUES TO RATHER ABNORMALLY WARM AND MUGGY THIS MORNING.
AREA RADARS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY
AS CAPPING REMAINS STRONG TODAY AND CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT TO
RAISE MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES.
MEANWHILE THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTH AS REPEATED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES AND ASSOCIATED
COLD POOLS RE-ENFORCE THE FRONT. FRONT MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
AREA AND THE CAP WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME WENT WITH LOWER END POPS...BUT GUIDANCE
DOES HINT AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW THAT
COULD CAUSE A INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE GUIDANCE...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO RAISE
POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF TRENDS CONTINUE. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEY WOULD LIKELY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO BE IN THE 2000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MONDAY WILL BE MORE ACTIVE DAY FOR
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS FRONT GETS A LITTLE CLOSER. AGAIN THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. THE FRONT WILL HANG AROUND FOR TUESDAY AND ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.
WHILE IT DOES LOOK SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST
TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ON THE EAST COAST
AND LOWER PRESSURE IN WEST TEXAS WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 88 73 88 72 87 / 0 10 10 10 20
KBPT 88 74 88 73 88 / 0 10 10 10 20
KAEX 90 70 89 69 83 / 10 10 20 20 40
KLFT 89 72 89 71 87 / 0 10 20 10 30
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
BRAZZELL
[top]
000
FXUS64 KSHV 090840
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
340 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOWN A TREND OF WEAKENING
AS STORMS MOVE CLOSER TOWARDS SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION
TOWARDS THE I-30 CORRIDOR. HAVING SAID THIS...HAD A HEAT BURST
OVER LAMAR COUNTY WITH A 58KT GUST AT PRX AND A TEMPERATURE JUMP
OF 9 DEGREES BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT.
COLD FRONT AS OF 08Z WAS LOCATED NEAR A FSM...ABI LINE AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TODAY.
KEPT HIGHEST POPS TODAY NORTH OF THE EXPECTED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AS 850MB FRONT AND HIGHEST THETA E RIDGING REMAINS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. CONCERNING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY...
WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR DAYTIME HEATING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHWARD BOUNDARY. AGREE WITH SPC ASSESSMENT THAT WHILE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK...INSTABILITY WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL SUCH AND
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD WEAKEN IN THE
WARM SECTOR TODAY...WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA AND
NORTH. CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET OVERRUNNING THE SFC BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED SEVER HAIL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL.
KEPT HIGHEST POPS GOING TO OUR NORTH...AGAIN IN THE VICINITY OF
THE 850MB BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION TIED TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY DEPENDENT ON DAYTIME INSTABILITY. BOUNDARY LIFTS
BACK TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
AND AN INCREASING NORTH TO SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. NEXT SHORTWAVE RACES INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY.
MORNING PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR TOR WATCH
# 278 WHICH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 5 AM. PRELIM NUMBERS TO
FOLLOW. THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION SPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES.
13
&&
.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS A SURFACE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE FOUR
STATE REGION AND STALLS. AS THE FRONT SLIDES TOWARD TXK...VCTS
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 11Z FOLLOWED BY MLU/TYR BY 17Z.
CURRENTLY SEEING 2KFT STRATUS DECK STREAMING NORTH FROM THE GULF
INTO LFK/MLU/SHV. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BECOME NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY 12Z SUNDAY AS LOW
CLOUDS RETURN./05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 86 66 80 65 76 / 40 50 40 40 50
MLU 87 66 79 64 76 / 30 50 40 40 50
DEQ 78 58 71 59 71 / 60 70 70 60 60
TXK 81 60 72 60 71 / 50 60 60 50 60
ELD 84 63 73 60 72 / 50 60 60 50 60
TYR 85 65 80 64 75 / 50 50 40 40 50
GGG 86 65 80 64 75 / 50 50 40 40 50
LFK 89 70 87 69 85 / 20 20 30 20 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13/05
000
FXUS64 KSHV 090653
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
153 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009
.DISCUSSION...
PER DISCUSSION WITH SPC...WE HAVE ADDED MCCURTAIN CNTY TO TOR #278
WHICH IS VALID UNTIL 10Z. PLAN ON HAVING MORNING PACKAGE OUT AT
5AM AND WILL RE ACCESS TOR #278 AT THAT TIME. UPDATED WCN AND ZFP
ALREADY SENT.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 86 65 83 64 76 / 40 50 40 40 50
MLU 86 66 83 64 75 / 30 50 40 40 50
DEQ 74 60 71 59 72 / 60 70 70 60 60
TXK 79 61 75 61 71 / 50 60 60 50 60
ELD 83 62 76 60 71 / 50 60 60 50 60
TYR 84 66 82 64 78 / 50 50 40 40 50
GGG 85 65 82 64 77 / 50 50 40 40 50
LFK 91 71 87 67 84 / 20 20 30 20 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13
000
FXUS64 KLCH 090500
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1200 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009
.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS 00Z DISCUSSION. OBS GOING BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN SCT AND BKN AROUND 2500 FT. WILL STICK TO PREVAILING MVFR
AT BKN 25000 FT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS...WITH THE
CLOUDS GOING SCT AROUND MIDDAY.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009/
UPDATE...ANOTHER QUIET AND MILD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY/SURFACE OBS SHOWING EVENING
STRATUS AGAIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION. SOME CIRRUS APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH MID TEXAS MCS. CURRENT ZONE
FORECAST AND GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO UPDATE COMING.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
SCT TO BKN CLDS NEAR 2500 FT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING PREDOMINATELY BKN AROUND MIDNIGHT
ALONG THE COAST...AND A COUPLE HRS LATER AT KAEX. THUS...MVFR
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. CLDS WILL BECOME SCT
AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY AREAWIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. AS EXPECTED STRONG CAP
ALOFT HAS KEPT ALL CONVECTION AT BAY WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
CUMULUS ACROSS THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING THAT PROMPTED THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY
GOING FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED SUMMERLIKE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG RIDGING ACROSS
MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS
WELL TO OUR NORTH. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS OF LATE...AND WITH GULF WATER TEMPERATURES NOW
NEAR 80 DEGREES HAVE KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE LEVELS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY BUT
MODELS SHOW MOST CONVECTION REMAINING TO OUR NORTH DUE TO THE
STRONG CAP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ARKLATEX REGION SHOULD HELP PUSH
THE WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA...SPARKING A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE CWA INTO TUESDAY
WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME RELIEF WILL
BE SEEN IN NORTHERN ZONES DURING THIS TWO DAY PERIOD AS COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LOWER HIGHS AND LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS. AFTER THAT...DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK WITH SUMMERLIKE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUING .
MARINE...
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL PROMPT SCEC
FLAGS THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER THAT...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
LACK OF PROMINENT STORM SYSTEMS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FLAGS FOR WINDS
OR SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 75 88 74 88 / 0 0 0 10
KBPT 75 89 74 88 / 0 0 0 10
KAEX 71 90 70 89 / 0 0 0 20
KLFT 74 89 73 88 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 090257
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
957 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009
...NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE COMING AT THIS TIME...
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT.
MID-EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT NEAR A
MINERAL WELLS TEXAS TO MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO RUSSELLVILLE ARKANSAS
LINE AT 9 PM.
THE FRONT SHOULD START MOVING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES
SOMEWHAT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS RIPPLE...SMALL AS IT
IS...WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. DON`T LOOK FOR IT TO MOVE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. IT
SHOULD STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE IH-20 CORRIDOR. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SOME OF
THE STORMS THIS WEEKEND COULD BE SEVERE AND YIELD COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
RAIN.
IN THE MEANTIME...WE HAVE TO DEAL WITH A SEVERE WEATHER RISK
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT ENCROACHES UPON OUR REGION. OUR EVENING
UPPER-AIR SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNSTABLE...YET STRONGLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. SURFACE-BASED LIFTED INDICES REMAIN AROUND
-7...WITH 100MB MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES STILL HOVERING AROUND 2000
JOULES/KG...ESPECIALLY NORTH/WEST OF IH-30.
I EXPECT THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA STORMS TO START MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AS THE FRONT SINKS INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION AS THE CAP WEAKENS. WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING IN PLACE...AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY
RISKS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.
QUITE HONESTLY...EVEN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES IS STILL RATHER LOW. THE
RISK COULD INCREASE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STRENGTHEN. LARGE HAIL
APPEARS TO BE A MUCH GREATER RISK. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM FOR MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA.
THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW BASED UPON THE
EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS. NO CHANGE WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME.
/21/
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z...BEFORE MVFR CIGS
SPREAD N ACROSS E TX/N LA SHORTLY THEREAFTERWARDS. THESE CIGS ARE
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS SE TX/SRN LA...AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY LOWER ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. 01Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK
COLD FRONT FROM JUST E OF A SPS...TO ADM...TO NEAR A MLC AND FSM
LINE...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO DRIFT SWD TOWARDS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF SE OK/SW AR BETWEEN 06-12Z. SCT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS WCNTRL TX/SRN OK HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH EWD
PROGRESS THIS EVENING...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT DRIFTS S...WITH SCT CONVECTION SPREADING E ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS SE OK/SW AR AFTER 06Z...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TXK
TERMINAL AFTER 09Z. WILL AWAIT LATEST RADAR TRENDS BEFORE
RE-INSERTING TEMPO THUNDER GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.
HOWEVER...LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL SPREAD N TO ENCOMPASS THE LA
TERMINALS AFTER 09Z...WITH THESE CIGS SLOW TO LIFT UNTIL MID/LATE
MORNING SATURDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY OVER EXTREME NE
TX/SW AR...BUT OTHERWISE...A BKN VFR CU FIELD WILL PERSIST S OF THE
FRONT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. PERIODS OF SCT
CONVECTION WILL PERSIST ALONG/N OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AS WELL...WITH
BEST COVERAGE POSSIBLY REMAINING JUST N OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS.
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN VCTS FOR THESE AREAS...WITH LATER AMENDMENTS
LIKELY ONCE THE SCENARIO BECOMES MORE CLEAR. S WINDS 5-10KTS TONIGHT
WILL BECOME SSW 5-10KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY OVER N LA/E
TX S OF I-20. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BACK E-NERLY 5-10KTS BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER SW AR. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 73 86 65 83 64 / 20 30 30 40 40
MLU 73 86 66 83 64 / 10 30 30 40 40
DEQ 69 74 60 71 59 / 60 60 60 60 50
TXK 72 79 61 75 61 / 50 50 50 50 50
ELD 73 83 62 76 60 / 50 50 50 50 50
TYR 73 84 66 82 64 / 20 30 30 40 40
GGG 73 85 65 82 64 / 20 30 30 40 40
LFK 74 91 71 87 67 / 10 20 20 20 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECASTER...BUTTS
AVIATION FORECASTER...JH
000
FXUS64 KLCH 090217
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
917 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.UPDATE...ANOTHER QUIET AND MILD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY/SURFACE OBS SHOWING EVENING
STRATUS AGAIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION. SOME CIRRUS APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH MID TEXAS MCS. CURRENT ZONE
FORECAST AND GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO UPDATE COMING.
&&
MARCOTTE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
SCT TO BKN CLDS NEAR 2500 FT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING PREDOMINATELY BKN AROUND MIDNIGHT
ALONG THE COAST...AND A COUPLE HRS LATER AT KAEX. THUS...MVFR
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. CLDS WILL BECOME SCT
AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY AREAWIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. AS EXPECTED STRONG CAP
ALOFT HAS KEPT ALL CONVECTION AT BAY WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
CUMULUS ACROSS THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING THAT PROMPTED THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY
GOING FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED SUMMERLIKE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG RIDGING ACROSS
MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS
WELL TO OUR NORTH. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS OF LATE...AND WITH GULF WATER TEMPERATURES NOW
NEAR 80 DEGREES HAVE KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE LEVELS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY BUT
MODELS SHOW MOST CONVECTION REMAINING TO OUR NORTH DUE TO THE
STRONG CAP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ARKLATEX REGION SHOULD HELP PUSH
THE WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA...SPARKING A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE CWA INTO TUESDAY
WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME RELIEF WILL
BE SEEN IN NORTHERN ZONES DURING THIS TWO DAY PERIOD AS COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LOWER HIGHS AND LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS. AFTER THAT...DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK WITH SUMMERLIKE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUING .
MARINE...
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL PROMPT SCEC
FLAGS THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER THAT...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
LACK OF PROMINENT STORM SYSTEMS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FLAGS FOR WINDS
OR SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 75 88 74 88 73 / 0 0 0 10 10
KBPT 75 89 74 88 73 / 0 0 0 10 10
KAEX 71 90 70 89 68 / 0 0 0 20 20
KLFT 74 89 73 88 72 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 090051
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
751 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH A PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 1.05 INCHES AND A LIFTED INDEX VALUE OF -5.7. THE
MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS WHERE A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED. AN INVERSION IS PRESENT NEAR 850 MILLIBARS
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP VERTICAL CLOUD GROWTH TO A MINIMUM.
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST NEAR THE SURFACE AND OUT OF THE WEST
ALOFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009/
SHORT TERM...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUE SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. JET STREAM OF 100 TO 115 KNOTS AT 250MB WAS NOTED
FROM OREGON TO PENNSYLVANIA WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALONG THE
WAY...BUT WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED
A 1018MB HIGH OVER EAST GULF AND A 1000MB LOW OVER WEST
TEXAS...THUS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
TO MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE EARLY SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO RACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL PUSH TO SOUTH APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND AN ASSOCIATED HIGH PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH PLAINS. AS A RESULT...THIS HIGH WILL DISPLACE THE LOW
OVER THE PLAINS SOUTH INTO MEXICO AND WEAKENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SATURDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND BECOME WEST/EAST ORIENTED
SUNDAY. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY...POOLING OF MOISTURE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND SURFACE HEATED INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH ZONES SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL DEEPEN A TROUGH ALONG EAST CONUS...THUS SLOWLY SHIFTING THE
MID LAYER FLOW FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST AND PROVIDE A PUSH SOUTH FOR
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WITH SURFACE
FOCUS OVER THE AREA...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY...BUT NO MAJOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE FOR NEXT
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER STRONG
WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT INTO THE AREA BY
DAY 7. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE EXTENDED FOR NOW.
AVIATION...
KLIX SOUNDING CONTINUES TO INDICATE MOISTURE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET. AS A RESULT...NIGHT TIME LOW LEVEL MVFR
CEILINGS ARE BEING WITNESSED AND DURING THE DAY ONLY SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS BETWEEN 3K AND 4K FEET ARE BEING OBSERVED. IF ANY
LIGHT FOG IS TO BE OBSERVED...MOST LIKELY AT KMCB AROUND SUNRISE. 35
MARINE...
WINDS THAT HAD BRIEFLY MOVED INTO THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE HAVE
FALLEN BACK BELOW 15 KNOTS...SO 21Z CWF WILL NOT CARRY ANY
HEADLINES. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE PARKED OVER FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS BUT MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 69 89 68 89 / 0 10 10 20
BTR 71 91 70 89 / 0 10 10 10
MSY 72 89 72 89 / 0 10 10 10
GPT 72 85 71 85 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 082349
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
649 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCT TO BKN CLDS NEAR 2500 FT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING PREDOMINATELY BKN AROUND MIDNIGHT
ALONG THE COAST...AND A COUPLE HRS LATER AT KAEX. THUS...MVFR
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. CLDS WILL BECOME SCT
AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY AREAWIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. AS EXPECTED STRONG CAP
ALOFT HAS KEPT ALL CONVECTION AT BAY WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
CUMULUS ACROSS THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING THAT PROMPTED THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY
GOING FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED SUMMERLIKE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG RIDGING ACROSS
MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS
WELL TO OUR NORTH. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS OF LATE...AND WITH GULF WATER TEMPERATURES NOW
NEAR 80 DEGREES HAVE KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE LEVELS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY BUT
MODELS SHOW MOST CONVECTION REMAINING TO OUR NORTH DUE TO THE
STRONG CAP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ARKLATEX REGION SHOULD HELP PUSH
THE WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA...SPARKING A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE CWA INTO TUESDAY
WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME RELIEF WILL
BE SEEN IN NORTHERN ZONES DURING THIS TWO DAY PERIOD AS COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LOWER HIGHS AND LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS. AFTER THAT...DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK WITH SUMMERLIKE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUING .
MARINE...
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL PROMPT SCEC
FLAGS THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER THAT...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
LACK OF PROMINENT STORM SYSTEMS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FLAGS FOR WINDS
OR SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 75 88 74 88 / 0 0 0 10
KBPT 75 89 74 88 / 0 0 0 10
KAEX 71 90 70 89 / 0 0 0 20
KLFT 74 89 73 88 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ACADIA-
CALCASIEU-CAMERON-IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER
ST. MARTIN-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR JEFFERSON-
ORANGE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 082337 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
637 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009
...A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE COMING...
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT...
EXTENDING NEAR A MINERAL WELLS TEXAS TO MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO
RUSSELLVILLE ARKANSAS AT 5 PM. SUPERCELLS...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED NEAR THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE DALLAS/FT.
WORTH METROPLEX.
THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CLOSER TO HOME REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE.
SURFACE-BASED LIFTED INDICES ARE AROUND -10 DEGREES /ESPECIALLY
ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA/...WITH 100MB MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 3000 JOULES/KG NORTH/WEST OF IH-30. EVEN SO...WE REMAIN
LARGELY CAPPED. THE LOWEST VALUES OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AS OF
THIS WRITING ARE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
I EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN OKLAHOMA ALONG
THE FRONT INITIALLY...THEN GRADUALLY FILL-IN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS
THE CAP WEAKENS AFTER SUNSET. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
/GREATER THAN 8 DEGREES/KM/ AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
COULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY RISKS OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.
QUITE HONESTLY...EVEN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES APPEARS MINIMAL OVER AT LEAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE RISK COULD INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELD STRENGTHENS AFTER
SUNSET. FOR THIS REASON...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED
TORNADO WATCH 274 FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING MCCURTAIN
COUNTY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY COME AFTER 9 OR 10 PM.
ON ANOTHER FRONT /PUN INTENDED/...I WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY AS MOST WIND SPEEDS ARE PRESENTLY BELOW CRITERIA.
IN ADDITION TO UPDATING THE FOR THE WATCH AND REMOVING THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY...I WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
FORECAST UPDATES WILL BE COMING /HOPEFULLY/ BEFORE 715 PM. STAY
TUNED. /21/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON...AS MODELS
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE CWA
LATER TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS STILL NORTH AND WEST OF A LBB...PNC...MKC
LINE...SO ITS GOING TO HAVE TO COVER SOME GROUND TO MAKE INTO THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING MCS THAT
MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS IS PROGRESSING TOWARD THE AREA AS
WELL...AND IF CONVECTION IS TO TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING THIS WILL
BE THE TRIGGER. A SLIGHT RISK COVERS THE I30 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD
FOR TONIGHT...SO ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
THIS AREA. MC CURTAIN COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT ARKANSAS COUNTIES
ARE IN THE 3 DAY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK...SO FLASH FLOODING
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THIS PERIOD. TEMPS ARE IN REASON OF
GUIDANCE...AND EXTENDED PACKAGE VERY FEW CHANGES.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 700 PM.
ELEVEN
AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. EXPECT STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS AT
TIMES. AFTER 00Z WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE.
A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
AROUND 18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT FOR DEQ...TXK...ELD AND AFTER 12Z FOR TYR...GGG...SHV AND
MLU. ALSO...EXPECT MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS TO RETURN AREA WIDE
AFTER 06Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 09/15Z. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY
VCNTY TSTMS. /14/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 73 86 65 83 64 / 20 30 30 40 40
MLU 73 86 66 83 64 / 10 30 30 40 40
DEQ 69 74 60 71 59 / 60 60 60 60 50
TXK 72 79 61 75 61 / 50 50 50 50 50
ELD 73 83 62 76 60 / 50 50 50 50 50
TYR 73 84 66 82 64 / 20 30 30 40 40
GGG 73 85 65 82 64 / 20 30 30 40 40
LFK 74 91 71 87 67 / 10 20 20 20 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
BUTTS
000
FXUS64 KLCH 082052
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
352 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY AREAWIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. AS EXPECTED STRONG CAP
ALOFT HAS KEPT ALL CONVECTION AT BAY WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
CUMULUS ACROSS THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING THAT PROMPTED THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY
GOING FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED SUMMERLIKE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG RIDGING ACROSS
MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS
WELL TO OUR NORTH. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS OF LATE...AND WITH GULF WATER TEMPERATURES NOW
NEAR 80 DEGREES HAVE KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE LEVELS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY BUT
MODELS SHOW MOST CONVECTION REMAINING TO OUR NORTH DUE TO THE
STRONG CAP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ARKLATEX REGION SHOULD HELP PUSH
THE WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA...SPARKING A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE CWA INTO TUESDAY
WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME RELIEF WILL
BE SEEN IN NORTHERN ZONES DURING THIS TWO DAY PERIOD AS COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LOWER HIGHS AND LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS. AFTER THAT...DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK WITH SUMMERLIKE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUING .
&&
.MARINE...
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL PROMPT SCEC
FLAGS THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER THAT...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
LACK OF PROMINENT STORM SYSTEMS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FLAGS FOR WINDS
OR SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 75 88 74 88 73 / 0 0 0 10 10
KBPT 75 89 74 88 73 / 0 0 0 10 10
KAEX 71 90 70 89 68 / 0 0 0 20 20
KLFT 74 89 73 88 72 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...UPPER ST.
MARTIN...VERMILION.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHAMBURGER
000
FXUS64 KLIX 082029
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
329 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUE SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. JET STREAM OF 100 TO 115 KNOTS AT 250MB WAS NOTED
FROM OREGON TO PENNSYLVANIA WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALONG THE
WAY...BUT WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED
A 1018MB HIGH OVER EAST GULF AND A 1000MB LOW OVER WEST
TEXAS...THUS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
TO MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE EARLY SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO RACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL PUSH TO SOUTH APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND AN ASSOCIATED HIGH PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH PLAINS. AS A RESULT...THIS HIGH WILL DISPLACE THE LOW
OVER THE PLAINS SOUTH INTO MEXICO AND WEAKENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SATURDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND BECOME WEST/EAST ORIENTED
SUNDAY. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY...POOLING OF MOISTURE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND SURFACE HEATED INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH ZONES SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...
THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL DEEPEN A TROUGH ALONG EAST CONUS...THUS SLOWLY SHIFTING THE
MID LAYER FLOW FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST AND PROVIDE A PUSH SOUTH FOR
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WITH SURFACE
FOCUS OVER THE AREA...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY...BUT NO MAJOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE FOR NEXT
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER STRONG
WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT INTO THE AREA BY
DAY 7. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE EXTENDED FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
KLIX SOUNDING CONTINUES TO INDICATE MOISTURE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET. AS A RESULT...NIGHT TIME LOW LEVEL MVFR
CEILINGS ARE BEING WITNESSED AND DURING THE DAY ONLY SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS BETWEEN 3K AND 4K FEET ARE BEING OBSERVED. IF ANY
LIGHT FOG IS TO BE OBSERVED...MOST LIKELY AT KMCB AROUND SUNRISE. 35
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS THAT HAD BRIEFLY MOVED INTO THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE HAVE
FALLEN BACK BELOW 15 KNOTS...SO 21Z CWF WILL NOT CARRY ANY
HEADLINES. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE PARKED OVER FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS BUT MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 69 89 68 89 / 0 10 10 20
BTR 71 91 70 89 / 0 10 10 10
MSY 72 89 72 89 / 0 10 10 10
GPT 72 85 71 85 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 082028
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
328 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON...AS MODELS
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE CWA
LATER TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS STILL NORTH AND WEST OF A LBB...PNC...MKC
LINE...SO ITS GOING TO HAVE TO COVER SOME GROUND TO MAKE INTO THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING MCS THAT
MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS IS PROGRESSING TOWARD THE AREA AS
WELL...AND IF CONVECTION IS TO TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING THIS WILL
BE THE TRIGGER. A SLIGHT RISK COVERS THE I30 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD
FOR TONIGHT...SO ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
THIS AREA. MC CURTAIN COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT ARKANSAS COUNTIES
ARE IN THE 3 DAY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK...SO FLASH FLOODING
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THIS PERIOD. TEMPS ARE IN REASON OF
GUIDANCE...AND EXTENDED PACKAGE VERY FEW CHANGES.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 700 PM.
ELEVEN
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. EXPECT STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS AT
TIMES. AFTER 00Z WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE.
A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
AROUND 18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT FOR DEQ...TXK...ELD AND AFTER 12Z FOR TYR...GGG...SHV AND
MLU. ALSO...EXPECT MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS TO RETURN AREA WIDE
AFTER 06Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 09/15Z. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY
VCNTY TSTMS. /14/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 73 86 65 83 64 / 20 30 30 40 40
MLU 73 86 66 83 64 / 10 30 30 40 40
DEQ 69 74 60 71 59 / 60 60 60 60 50
TXK 72 79 61 75 61 / 50 50 50 50 50
ELD 73 83 62 76 60 / 50 50 50 50 50
TYR 73 84 66 82 64 / 20 30 30 40 40
GGG 73 85 65 82 64 / 20 30 30 40 40
LFK 74 91 71 87 67 / 10 20 20 20 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070-071.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001-002-010-017.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
11/14
000
FXUS64 KLCH 081720
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1220 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.AVIATION...
CEILINGS ARE LIFTING AT THIS TIME. MOST LCTNS ARE ABV 030 ALTHOUGH
LCH IS HOLDING AROUND 025. BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND SUNSET WITH
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009/
UPDATE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WITH WINDS ALREADY NEAR CRITERIA HAVE HOISTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...12Z KLCH
SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG 5C CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND 850
MB WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 IN THE NORTHERN ZONES
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. MADE SEVERAL MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BUT FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009/
AVIATION...STRONG WINDS WILL MIX DOWN FROM THE GRADIENT LEVEL
WHERE SSW 30 TO 40 KNOTS ARE ALREADY TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GUSTS AS HIGH AS 24 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. MVFR CIGS AT
BPT, LCH, AND AEX WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THEN SKC BY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TNITE.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF NEXT FRONT. UNTIL THEN...RATHER WARM MID
LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAP SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING BY
SUNDAY...WILL HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH. BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NORTH BY MID WEEK
SO POPS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. FRONT MAY DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO DROP DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS APPROACH OF FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY SHIFT WINDS MORE EASTERLY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE. GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE
TIGHTER TODAY SO WILL HAVE SCEC FROM HIGH ISLAND TO CAMERON.
PUBLIC/MARINE...04
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 72 88 74 88 72 / 0 0 0 10 10
KBPT 73 87 74 88 73 / 0 0 0 10 10
KAEX 70 88 71 87 68 / 0 0 0 20 20
KLFT 70 88 73 88 71 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...UPPER ST.
MARTIN...VERMILION.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 081520
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1020 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT WILL MAKE SOME COSMETIC CHANGES
JUST TO GET RID OF THE MORNING WORDING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AROUND THE AREA TODAY...BUT WITH NO BOUNDARY TO
TRIGGER DEVELOPMENT AND A STRONG CAP IN PLACE CONVECTION WILL BE
TOUGH. FRONT SLIDES INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER
THIS EVENING...SO EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF I30
IS LIKELY.
ELEVEN
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS AREA WIDE THIS MORNING WILL LIFT AND BECOME SCATTERED...
RESULTING IN VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15 TO 20
KTS AND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS AT TIMES. AFTER 00Z WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS TODAY...REACHING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AFTER 09/00Z FOR DEQ...TXK...ELD AND AFTER 12Z FOR TYR...
GGG...SHV AND MLU. ALSO...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO RETURN AREA WIDE AFTER
09/06Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 09/15Z. IFR LIKELY VCNTY TSTMS. /14/
&&
.PREVIOUS POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 90 72 87 67 83 / 10 20 30 30 40
MLU 90 71 87 67 84 / 10 10 30 30 40
DEQ 89 68 75 60 72 / 30 60 60 60 60
TXK 89 69 79 62 74 / 20 50 50 50 50
ELD 90 68 82 63 76 / 10 50 50 50 50
TYR 89 72 84 66 79 / 10 20 30 30 40
GGG 90 72 85 67 82 / 10 20 30 30 40
LFK 91 72 90 72 87 / 10 10 20 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070-071.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001-002-010-017.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
11/14
000
FXUS64 KLCH 081455
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
955 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.UPDATE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WITH WINDS ALREADY NEAR CRITERIA HAVE HOISTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...12Z KLCH
SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG 5C CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND 850
MB WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 IN THE NORTHERN ZONES
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. MADE SEVERAL MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BUT FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009/
AVIATION...STRONG WINDS WILL MIX DOWN FROM THE GRADIENT LEVEL
WHERE SSW 30 TO 40 KNOTS ARE ALREADY TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GUSTS AS HIGH AS 24 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. MVFR CIGS AT
BPT, LCH, AND AEX WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THEN SKC BY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TNITE.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF NEXT FRONT. UNTIL THEN...RATHER WARM MID
LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAP SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING BY
SUNDAY...WILL HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH. BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NORTH BY MID WEEK
SO POPS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. FRONT MAY DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO DROP DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS APPROACH OF FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY SHIFT WINDS MORE EASTERLY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE. GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE
TIGHTER TODAY SO WILL HAVE SCEC FROM HIGH ISLAND TO CAMERON.
PUBLIC/MARINE...04
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 87 72 88 74 88 / 0 0 0 0 10
KBPT 88 73 87 74 88 / 0 0 0 0 10
KAEX 90 70 88 71 87 / 0 0 0 0 20
KLFT 87 70 88 73 88 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...UPPER ST.
MARTIN...VERMILION.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 081303
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
803 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.AVIATION...STRONG WINDS WILL MIX DOWN FROM THE GRADIENT LEVEL
WHERE SSW 30 TO 40 KNOTS ARE ALREADY TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GUSTS AS HIGH AS 24 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. MVFR CIGS AT
BPT, LCH, AND AEX WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THEN SKC BY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TNITE.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF NEXT FRONT. UNTIL THEN...RATHER WARM MID
LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAP SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING BY
SUNDAY...WILL HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH. BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NORTH BY MID WEEK
SO POPS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. FRONT MAY DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO DROP DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS APPROACH OF FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY SHIFT WINDS MORE EASTERLY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE. GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE
TIGHTER TODAY SO WILL HAVE SCEC FROM HIGH ISLAND TO CAMERON.
PUBLIC/MARINE...04
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 87 72 88 74 88 / 0 10 0 0 10
KBPT 89 73 87 74 88 / 0 10 0 0 10
KAEX 90 70 88 71 87 / 0 10 10 10 20
KLFT 87 70 88 73 88 / 0 0 10 0 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 081002
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
502 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...
DRY AND VERY WARM AIR WILL REINFORCE OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND
THIS DRYING IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN THE SURGE OF LOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER OBSERVED COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME OF THE DRY AIR HAS
ALSO WORKED DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WHICH IS A LITTLE MORE
REASONABLE THAN THE UNSEASONABLY WARM MID 70S LOWS THE LAST COUPLE
MORNINGS. THIS RELATIVE COOLNESS WILL NOT LAST LONG ONCE LOW
CLOUDS BURN OFF THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT A
DEGREE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY WHICH MEANS MOST AREAS WILL SEE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE 80
DEGREE WATER SHOULD HOLD HIGHS DOWN IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE.
A STRONG ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDDLE SECTION OF THE CONUS
WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE ENHANCED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL PUSH A EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT
BACK SOUTH TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH...POSSIBLY REACHING CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND INLAND SOUTH OR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI LATE
SATURDAY. THIS WILL AID IN COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO WARM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...
A CONTINUED TRAIN OF UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL START TO BUCKLE THE
JET WITH THE GFS SHOWING A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST TO
MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...THEN GET A PUSH
INTO OR POSSIBLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH FLATTER UPPER PATTERN AND IS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...SHOWING A MORE BACK DOOR SAGGING OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE
SOLUTION WHICH IS A BIT WARMER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN THE MEX
GUIDANCE ON MONDAY THEN NEAR MEX POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
NORTH SUNDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA MAINLY DAYTIME MONDAY THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN...ONLY 30
PERCENT...IS ON MONDAY. THE BIG MODEL CHANGE FROM A COUPLE DAYS
AGO IS THE ABSENCE OF A UPPER RIDGE/HIGH OVER OR NEAR THE GULF
COAST REGION LATER NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES DURING THE
WEEK WITH SOME PHASING OR BREAKING OFF OF MID/UPPER TROUGHING
EXPECTED OVER THE GULF COAST REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. HAVE LOWERED
HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND THEY MAY NEEDED TO BE LOWERED A
COUPLE DEGREES LATE IN THE WEEK IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
22/TD
&&
.AVIATION...
KLIX SOUNDING CONTINUES TO INDICATE MOISTURE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET. AS A RESULT...NIGHT TIME LOW LEVEL MVFR
CEILINGS ARE BEING WITNESSED AND DURING THE DAY ONLY SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS BETWEEN 3K AND 4K FEET ARE BEING OBSERVED. WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SURFACE RIDGE PARKED OVER FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GULF COAST TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BUT MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 89 69 89 68 / 0 0 10 10
BTR 90 71 91 70 / 0 0 10 10
MSY 88 72 89 72 / 0 0 10 10
GPT 86 72 84 71 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 080830
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
330 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF NEXT FRONT. UNTIL THEN...RATHER WARM MID
LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAP SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING BY
SUNDAY...WILL HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH. BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NORTH BY MID WEEK
SO POPS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. FRONT MAY DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO DROP DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS APPROACH OF FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY SHIFT WINDS MORE EASTERLY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE. GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE
TIGHTER TODAY SO WILL HAVE SCEC FROM HIGH ISLAND TO CAMERON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 87 72 88 74 / 0 10 0 0
KBPT 89 73 87 74 / 0 10 0 0
KAEX 90 70 88 71 / 0 10 10 10
KLFT 87 70 88 73 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...04
000
FXUS64 KSHV 080801
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
301 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WARM AND WINDY TODAY COULD GIVE WAY TO SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH SFC LOW MOVING
INTO THE TX/OK PHNDL AND SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE NE GULF. BOTH KSHV
AND KFWD VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING 40-50KTS AROUND 2KFT THIS MORNING
SO GRADIENT COMBINED WITH THERMAL MIXING WILL RESULT IN LAKE WIND
ADVISORY BEING MET TODAY AT LEAST ACROSS OUT WESTERN TWO THIRDS.
WILL KEEP OUR EASTERN THIRD JUST BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH 00Z THIS
EVENING. CONCERNING PRECIPITATION...STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL
BE THE MAIN PLAYER TODAY HELPING TO LIMIT ANYTHING BUT VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION. MCS COMPLEX
HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOSE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO MAKE GOOD
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A FRONTAL POSITION FROM
NORTH TEXAS EXTENDING INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY 00Z. THIS
FRONT...NOT TO MENTION ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY THE
COMPLEX THIS MORNING WILL BE A FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOULD SEE
STRONG INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN TODAY AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES POOLING NEAR THE FRONT...
EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ONCE AGAIN IN AREAS WHERE IT IS NOT NEEDED.
OVERNIGHT...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER STORM COMPLEX LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ONCE AGAIN...WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS FOCUSED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. PROGS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND AND THIS WILL PLAY HAVOC
WITH FCST MAX TEMPS. NAM IS MORE BULLISH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE REGION WHILE GFS PUSHES THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY. HAVE TRIED TO TAKE A BLEND CONCERNING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT COOLER AIR LOOKS PROMISING
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AROUND 12Z ACROSS AREA TERMINALS AS
1.5K FT CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
COULD PROVIDE WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST TEXAS THROUGH MID
MORNING. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z FOR TXK/TYR/GGG/SHV.
/05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 90 72 87 67 83 / 10 20 30 30 40
MLU 90 71 87 67 84 / 10 10 30 30 40
DEQ 89 68 75 60 72 / 30 60 60 60 60
TXK 89 69 79 62 74 / 20 50 50 50 50
ELD 90 68 82 63 76 / 10 50 50 50 50
TYR 89 72 84 66 79 / 10 20 30 30 40
GGG 90 72 85 67 82 / 10 20 30 30 40
LFK 91 72 90 72 87 / 10 10 20 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070-071.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001-002-010-017.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
13/05
000
FXUS64 KLCH 080501
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1201 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUED AT 00Z. MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT COURTESY PRIMARILY OF LOW CLOUDS.
ONLY LIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED DUE TO BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF MIXING...SOUTH WINDS WILL RAMP
UP AND BECOME GUSTY ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL ONCE
THE LOW CLOUDS AND MIST MIX OUT/LIFT IN THE MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009/
UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION BUT EVENING
STRATUS DEVELOPING AND MOVING INLAND. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME
LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. CURRENT
ZONES/GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK AND SEE NO NEED FOR AN UPDATE AT THIS
TIME.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
0OZ TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING
AND BECOMING GUSTY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL 88DS SHOW JUST A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...OTHERWISE WARM AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN
WINNING OUT OVER ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION. EXPECT WHATEVER SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP TO FIZZLE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET...AND THUS BEGINNING
A FEW DAYS OF WARM DRY WEATHER AS NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT KEEPS ANY
STORM SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH AND CAPPING KEEPS A LID ON ANY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING CONVECTION. LOOKING AT TEMPS AROUND 90
AREAWIDE TOMORROW AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER WARM AIR ALOFT
CONTINUING...THEN PUSHING 90 ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM THE OZARKS WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE THE POPS
OVER THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA. LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN SOME
AGREEMENT BRINGING A WEAKENING FORM OF THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...THEREFORE HAVE SMALL POPS FOR ALL OF
THE AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. HOWEVER HAVE NOT GONE TOO COOL WITH
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT ATTM...WILL LET LATER SHIFTS
BETTER REFINE THESE PARAMETERS AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON JUST
HOW STRONG THE FRONT WILL BE AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT GETS. ONCE THE
FRONT WASHES OUT OR PUSHES BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ALTHOUGH RIDGING PROGGED AT THE MID/UPR-LEVELS SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE...SRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BERMUDA
HIGH PERSISTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY REACHING CAUTION CRITERIA...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE WATERS WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WRN
TEXAS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...HOWEVER ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO
RETURN FOR TUESDAY.
25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 73 88 74 87 / 10 10 10 10
KBPT 73 89 74 87 / 10 10 10 10
KAEX 71 90 71 89 / 10 10 10 10
KLFT 72 89 72 88 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 080225
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
925 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009
...NO FORECAST UPDATES WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME...
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH OUR NEAREST FRONT STRETCHED NEAR THE IH-70 CORRIDOR.
IN GENERAL...I EXPECT LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
NEARLY ZONAL.
WE COULD STILL SEE A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE DAYTIME
HEATING AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MOST OF WHICH SHOULD
DIMINISH JUST AFTER SUNSET. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT
OF SEEING SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL COME THIS WEEKEND AS A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA.
MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...SOME LOW CLOUDS/AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER TONIGHT
THOUGH...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG EVENT. FOR THIS REASON...I WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF LOW
CLOUDS/FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY.
THE ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...AND I WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. /21/
&&
.AVIATION...
CU FIELD CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT
HRS...BEFORE LOW MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPS/SPREADS N ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 08Z IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING 40-50KT SWRLY LLJ OVER N
TX/CNTRL OK. WITH THE ONSET OF THE LLJ...SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 10-15KTS AFTER 06Z OVER THE E TX TERMINALS...WHICH
SHOULD IMPROVE THE HAZY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...LOW MVFR CIGS/REDUCED VSBYS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AS A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DRIFT S ACROSS
ECNTRL OK/NW AR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THIS CONVECTION LIKELY
PROGRESSING SE ACROSS AR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CAN/T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT SCT CONVECTION AFFECTING THE AR TERMINALS AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE SRN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SRLY WINDS
INCREASING TO 12-16KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AFTER 16Z. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 72 90 71 85 68 / 10 10 10 30 40
MLU 71 90 69 84 67 / 10 10 10 30 30
DEQ 67 86 67 73 60 / 10 20 40 50 50
TXK 72 90 69 77 63 / 10 10 20 40 50
ELD 69 90 68 79 63 / 10 10 20 40 40
TYR 73 91 72 84 67 / 10 10 10 30 40
GGG 72 90 71 84 66 / 10 10 10 30 30
LFK 73 90 72 89 70 / 0 10 10 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECASTER...BUTTS
AVIATION FORECASTER...JH
000
FXUS64 KLCH 080221
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
921 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009
.UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION BUT EVENING
STRATUS DEVELOPING AND MOVING INLAND. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME
LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. CURRENT
ZONES/GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK AND SEE NO NEED FOR AN UPDATE AT THIS
TIME.
&&
MARCOTTE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
0OZ TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING
AND BECOMING GUSTY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL 88DS SHOW JUST A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...OTHERWISE WARM AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN
WINNING OUT OVER ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION. EXPECT WHATEVER SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP TO FIZZLE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET...AND THUS BEGINNING
A FEW DAYS OF WARM DRY WEATHER AS NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT KEEPS ANY
STORM SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH AND CAPPING KEEPS A LID ON ANY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING CONVECTION. LOOKING AT TEMPS AROUND 90
AREAWIDE TOMORROW AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER WARM AIR ALOFT
CONTINUING...THEN PUSHING 90 ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM THE OZARKS WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE THE POPS
OVER THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA. LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN SOME
AGREEMENT BRINGING A WEAKENING FORM OF THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...THEREFORE HAVE SMALL POPS FOR ALL OF
THE AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. HOWEVER HAVE NOT GONE TOO COOL WITH
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT ATTM...WILL LET LATER SHIFTS
BETTER REFINE THESE PARAMETERS AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON JUST
HOW STRONG THE FRONT WILL BE AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT GETS. ONCE THE
FRONT WASHES OUT OR PUSHES BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ALTHOUGH RIDGING PROGGED AT THE MID/UPR-LEVELS SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE...SRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BERMUDA
HIGH PERSISTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY REACHING CAUTION CRITERIA...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE WATERS WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WRN
TEXAS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...HOWEVER ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO
RETURN FOR TUESDAY.
25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 73 88 74 87 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
KBPT 73 89 74 87 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
KAEX 71 90 71 89 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
KLFT 72 89 72 88 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 080122
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
822 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009
.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS EVENING. BEGINNING TO DRY OUT
A LITTLE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH OVERALL THINGS REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE. PWATS HAVE FALLEN SOMEWHAT INTO THE INCH AND A
QUARTER RANGE. VERY DRY IN THE MID LEVELS THIS EVENING WITH TWO
SMALLER INVERSIONS AROUND 10K AND 15K FEET. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT THE SURFACE AND OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ALOFT.
98/SO
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 1018MB HIGH OVER
NORTHEAST GULF AND SOUTHERLY FLOW UP TO THE GREAT LAKES. IN
ADDITION...70F DEWPOINT WAS FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE MID SOUTH.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WESTERLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DISPLACED BY MID LAYER DRY AIR FROM WEST THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND . STORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP BUT
NORTH OF THE AREA...SOME CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY ATM OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL NOT AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE NORTH TIER AND DEEPENED OVER ALONG THE EAST COAST. GFS
WANTS TO BRING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG THIS MEANDERING BOUNDARY.
WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER NIGHT TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE A SHARPER TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST FOR AN UPPER LEVEL PUSH THE FRONT TO THE LOUISIANA COAST. BY
MID NEXT WEEK...GFS WANTS TO DEVELOP A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS THUS SLIGHTLY INCREASING HEIGHTS AND WEAKENING THE FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ALL IN ALL...ABOVE NORMAL DAY TEMPS
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION AFTER MONDAY.
AVIATION...
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM TEXAS...WARM DRY AIR
PRODUCED BY LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL CAP
INHIBITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. KLIX SOUNDING INDICATES
MOISTURE IS MAINLY CONFINED TO LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET. AS A
RESULT...ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS BETWEEN 3 AND 4 THOUSAND
FEET ARE BEING OBSERVED. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. A FEW HOURS OF LOW LEVEL
STRATUS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SURFACE RIDGE PARKED OVER FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GULF COAST TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BUT MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 70 89 69 89 / 10 0 0 10
BTR 73 90 71 91 / 10 0 0 10
MSY 73 88 73 89 / 10 0 0 10
GPT 72 86 73 86 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 080009
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
709 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
0OZ TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING
AND BECOMING GUSTY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL 88DS SHOW JUST A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...OTHERWISE WARM AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN
WINNING OUT OVER ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION. EXPECT WHATEVER SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP TO FIZZLE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET...AND THUS BEGINNING
A FEW DAYS OF WARM DRY WEATHER AS NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT KEEPS ANY
STORM SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH AND CAPPING KEEPS A LID ON ANY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING CONVECTION. LOOKING AT TEMPS AROUND 90
AREAWIDE TOMORROW AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER WARM AIR ALOFT
CONTINUING...THEN PUSHING 90 ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM THE OZARKS WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE THE POPS
OVER THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA. LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN SOME
AGREEMENT BRINGING A WEAKENING FORM OF THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...THEREFORE HAVE SMALL POPS FOR ALL OF
THE AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. HOWEVER HAVE NOT GONE TOO COOL WITH
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT ATTM...WILL LET LATER SHIFTS
BETTER REFINE THESE PARAMETERS AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON JUST
HOW STRONG THE FRONT WILL BE AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT GETS. ONCE THE
FRONT WASHES OUT OR PUSHES BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ALTHOUGH RIDGING PROGGED AT THE MID/UPR-LEVELS SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE...SRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BERMUDA
HIGH PERSISTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY REACHING CAUTION CRITERIA...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE WATERS WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WRN
TEXAS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...HOWEVER ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO
RETURN FOR TUESDAY.
25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 73 88 74 87 / 10 10 10 10
KBPT 73 89 74 87 / 10 10 10 10
KAEX 71 90 71 89 / 10 10 10 10
KLFT 72 89 72 88 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 072045
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
345 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 1018MB HIGH OVER
NORTHEAST GULF AND SOUTHERLY FLOW UP TO THE GREAT LAKES. IN
ADDITION...70F DEWPOINT WAS FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE MID SOUTH.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WESTERLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DISPLACED BY MID LAYER DRY AIR FROM WEST THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND . STORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP BUT
NORTH OF THE AREA...SOME CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY ATM OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL NOT AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE NORTH TIER AND DEEPENED OVER ALONG THE EAST COAST. GFS
WANTS TO BRING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG THIS MEANDERING BOUNDARY.
WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER NIGHT TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE A SHARPER TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST FOR AN UPPER LEVEL PUSH THE FRONT TO THE LOUISIANA COAST. BY
MID NEXT WEEK...GFS WANTS TO DEVELOP A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS THUS SLIGHTLY INCREASING HEIGHTS AND WEAKENING THE FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ALL IN ALL...ABOVE NORMAL DAY TEMPS
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION AFTER MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM TEXAS...WARM DRY AIR
PRODUCED BY LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL CAP
INHIBITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. KLIX SOUNDING INDICATES
MOISTURE IS MAINLY CONFINED TO LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET. AS A
RESULT...ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS BETWEEN 3 AND 4 THOUSAND
FEET ARE BEING OBSERVED. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. A FEW HOURS OF LOW LEVEL
STRATUS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SURFACE RIDGE PARKED OVER FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GULF COAST TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BUT MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 70 89 69 89 / 10 0 0 10
BTR 73 90 71 91 / 10 0 0 10
MSY 73 88 73 89 / 10 0 0 10
GPT 72 86 73 86 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 072035
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...REGIONAL 88DS SHOW JUST A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...OTHERWISE WARM AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN
WINNING OUT OVER ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION. EXPECT WHATEVER SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP TO FIZZLE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET...AND THUS BEGINNING
A FEW DAYS OF WARM DRY WEATHER AS NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT KEEPS ANY
STORM SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH AND CAPPING KEEPS A LID ON ANY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING CONVECTION. LOOKING AT TEMPS AROUND 90
AREAWIDE TOMORROW AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER WARM AIR ALOFT
CONTINUING...THEN PUSHING 90 ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM THE OZARKS WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE THE POPS
OVER THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA. LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN SOME
AGREEMENT BRINGING A WEAKENING FORM OF THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...THEREFORE HAVE SMALL POPS FOR ALL OF
THE AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. HOWEVER HAVE NOT GONE TOO COOL WITH
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT ATTM...WILL LET LATER SHIFTS
BETTER REFINE THESE PARAMETERS AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON JUST
HOW STRONG THE FRONT WILL BE AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT GETS. ONCE THE
FRONT WASHES OUT OR PUSHES BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ALTHOUGH RIDGING PROGGED AT THE MID/UPR-LEVELS SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...SRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BERMUDA
HIGH PERSISTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY REACHING CAUTION CRITERIA...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE WATERS WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WRN
TEXAS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...HOWEVER ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO
RETURN FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 73 88 74 87 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
KBPT 73 89 74 87 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
KAEX 71 90 71 89 71 / 10 10 10 10 20
KLFT 72 89 72 88 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
25
000
FXUS64 KSHV 072022
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
322 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE CWA NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR AT THE SURFACE. THE PATTERN NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER TEXAS. SURFACE PATTERN CONSIST OF A TROUGH LEE OF THE ROCKIES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THIS WEEKEND...A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH...REACHING NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE AND A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY
HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL SINK. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING FRONT
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY 18Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE NAM IS SOMEWHAT
MORE CONSERVATIVE...KEEPING THE FRONT ALONG INTERSTATE 30 UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE FOCUSED WELL
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SO CONTINUING HIGHEST POPS THIS REGION.
THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE...AS ANY ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES NOT YET
DEPICTED BY MODELS CAN INITIATE CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA WHICH
WILL TRAVEL EAST IN THE ZONAL FLOW. WILL GO HIGHER THAN MOS POPS
MOST AREAS FOR THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED MORE AS
THE EVENT UNFOLDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...EXCEPT FOR AREAS
THAT END UP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. CLIMO CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE LONG RANGE MOS GUIDANCE NEXT WEEK...SO TRENDING
NUMBERS ABOVE MOS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED RW DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY...SITUATED NW
TO SE...ACROSS EXTREME SW AR...INTO NORTHCENTRAL LA. A FEW
TSTMS...NE OF ELD...BUT MOVING EAST. COULD SEE VCSH ELD AND MLU...
OTHERWISE ALL SITES HAVE BECOME VFR CIGS...WITH SOME 5-6 HZ REPORTED.
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...MVFR CIGS IN FLOW AFTER 09Z
MAINLY TEMPO WITH LOW LVLS DRYING. SOUTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY EAST
TX...REACH 10-15 KTS BEFORE 18Z FRI./VII/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 72 90 71 85 68 / 10 10 10 30 40
MLU 71 90 69 84 67 / 10 10 10 30 30
DEQ 67 86 67 73 60 / 10 20 40 50 50
TXK 72 90 69 77 63 / 10 10 20 40 50
ELD 69 90 68 79 63 / 10 10 20 40 40
TYR 73 91 72 84 67 / 10 10 10 30 40
GGG 72 90 71 84 66 / 10 10 10 30 30
LFK 73 90 72 89 70 / 0 10 10 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
14/07
000
FXUS64 KLIX 071823
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
123 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM TEXAS...WARM DRY
AIR PRODUCED BY LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL
CAP INHIBITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. KLIX SOUNDING INDICATES
MOISTURE IS MAINLY CONFINED TO LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET. AS A
RESULT...ONLY SC TATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS BETWEEN 3 AND 4
THOUSAND FEET ARE BEING OBSERVED. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AND CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. A FEW HOURS OF LOW LEVEL
STRATUS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 839 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009/
UPDATE...
..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. ANOTHER MOIST AND VERY
UNSTABLE MORNING IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA WITH A PW OF 1.40
INCHES AND AN LI OF -6.0. A VERY MOIST SOUNDING FROM THE SURFACE
UP TO 3000 FEET ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATUS AND
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF PATCHY FOG ...WHERE DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AT AROUND ZERO DEGREES. A LARGE CAP OF DRY
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL LIKELY
PERSIST LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
GP
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009/
UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT A COUPLE OBSERVATIONS SITES. MAY ADD
SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR A COUPLE HOURS.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST OF OUR AREA MOVING
TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A
SUBTLE 850-700 MB CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH HALF OF LOUISIANA ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A VERY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION. SOME OF
THIS ENERGY SHOULD MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY DURING PEAK HEATING. SOME OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH SHOULD MOVE INTO MORE OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN OVERDOING THE POPS/QPF THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT COMBINATION OF FACTORS INCLUDING BETTER SURFACE HEATING
TODAY TO INCLUDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND BORDERING AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL/
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THIS AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS SINCE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT SHOULD LESSEN THE HAIL THREAT.
A MORE ZONAL...STRAIGHT WEST TO EAST...UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WELL NORTH OF OUR
AREA ON FRIDAY. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR EVEN SPOTTY RAIN SHUTS DOWN ON
FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ABOVE THE SURFACE...SO EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM...
THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FROM FRIDAY CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS AND RAINFALL REMAINING UP IN THE MID SOUTH REGION.
LOCAL WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY WARM...MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW COMPONENT EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS MAY CAUSE THE
SURFACE FRONT TO SAG OR BACK DOOR INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT. A POOLING OF HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING...AND POSSIBLY A
WEAK DISTURBANCE OR TWO ALOFT SHOULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE PICTURE.
IT APPEARS A MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER OR NEAR THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD ARGUE
FOR A VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY FORECAST.
22/TD
AVIATION...
PRELIMINARY 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. BKN015 WILL MAINLY OCCUR AT MCB AND BTR AND WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING. SCT-BKN050 SHOULD BE MAINLY SEEN AT MSY
AND GPT. SOME LIGHT BR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE SEEN FOR A SHORT TIME
AROUND MCB. VCTS WILL ALSO OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR MCB
AND COULD IMPACT BTR. EXPECT ALL CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AND DECAY AT
SUNSET. FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURS.
MARINE...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SURFACE RIDGE PARKED OVER FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE GULF COAST TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ATTM BUT MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SOME SH/TS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 70 89 69 89 / 10 0 0 10
BTR 72 90 71 91 / 10 0 0 10
MSY 72 88 73 89 / 10 0 0 10
GPT 72 86 73 86 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 071537
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1035 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
VERY HUMID THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MOISTURE IS
CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWER 5 KFT...AND VERY DRY ABOVE. THIS DRYNESS
ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT MOST CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION. WITH OLD SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON...DO NOT
REALLY HAVE ANY AREAS TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION. ONE AREA TO WATCH
WOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CWA WHERE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE MAY HELP
INITIALIZE FIRST CONVECTION.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK WITH 20 POPS AREA WIDE. LOOK FOR CLOUD
COVER AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE TO HELP HOLD HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER
80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 90 DEGREES.
NO UPDATE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
LOW LVL MOISTURE THIS MORNING IN PROCESS OF MIXING OUT WITH SSW WINDS
NEAR 10 KTS. MSTR EROSION MAY TAKE UNTIL 16-17Z OVER TXK AND ELD
SITES. VERY SPARSE MSTR IN MID AND UPPER LVLS...CONVECTION REMAIN
VERY ISOLATED...STRICTLY DIURNAL CONDITIONAL ON TEMPS REACHING UPPER
80S. LEFT IN VCTS ONLY FOR ELD...TXK...MLU...SHV SITES./VII/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 88 70 91 70 87 / 20 10 20 20 30
MLU 87 70 90 69 88 / 20 10 20 20 30
DEQ 85 68 88 69 76 / 20 20 30 40 50
TXK 86 70 89 69 82 / 20 10 20 30 40
ELD 86 69 90 69 85 / 20 20 20 30 40
TYR 89 71 89 70 85 / 20 10 20 10 30
GGG 89 71 91 70 87 / 20 10 20 10 30
LFK 90 72 91 72 89 / 20 10 20 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
14/07
000
FXUS64 KLCH 071515
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1015 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...EVERYTHING LOOKS SIMILAR TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY
(OTHER THAN A WEAKENING MCS CROSSING NRN LA) WHICH IS REFLECTED IN
THE CURRENT GRIDS/ZONES. THEREFORE NO UPDATE NEEDED NOR PLANNED
FOR THIS MORNING.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009/
AVIATION...LCH MORNING SOUNDING SHOWING A MOIST MARINE LAYER BLO
4500 FEET. MULTI LYR CLDS MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME THE RULE THIS
MORNING. MVFR VIS WILL IMPROVE BY MID- MORNING. VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR VIS IN LIGHT FOG LATE TNITE WITH TEMPO IFR AT LFT,
ARA AND AEX.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009/
DISCUSSION....MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE
WILL BE DETERMINING POPS ESPECIALLY WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY...WILL HAVE LOW POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF I10 AS MODELS SFC BASED CAPES PROGGED NEAR 2500 J/KG.
WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE
LOW POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND INCREASING THTE ADVECTION. WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NORTH OR
BECOME DIFFUSE. LITTLE CHANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID 60S OR HIGHER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...APPROACH OF FRONT MAY BRING WEAK EASTERLY FLOW EARLY
NEXT WEEK...OTHERWISE WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL.
WILL HAVE A MODEST INCREASE IN WINDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN WEST TEXAS. SCEC
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
PUBLIC/MARINE...04
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 87 72 88 74 87 / 20 10 10 10 10
KBPT 88 73 89 74 87 / 20 10 10 10 10
KAEX 88 70 90 71 89 / 20 10 10 10 20
KLFT 87 70 89 72 88 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 071339
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
839 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009
.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. ANOTHER MOIST AND VERY
UNSTABLE MORNING IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA WITH A PW OF 1.40
INCHES AND AN LI OF -6.0. A VERY MOIST SOUNDING FROM THE SURFACE
UP TO 3000 FEET ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATUS AND
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF PATCHY FOG ...WHERE DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AT AROUND ZERO DEGREES. A LARGE CAP OF DRY
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL LIKELY
PERSIST LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
GP
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009/
UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT A COUPLE OBSERVATIONS SITES. MAY ADD
SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR A COUPLE HOURS.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST OF OUR AREA MOVING
TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A
SUBTLE 850-700 MB CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH HALF OF LOUISIANA ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A VERY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION. SOME OF
THIS ENERGY SHOULD MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY DURING PEAK HEATING. SOME OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH SHOULD MOVE INTO MORE OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN OVERDOING THE POPS/QPF THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT COMBINATION OF FACTORS INCLUDING BETTER SURFACE HEATING
TODAY TO INCLUDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND BORDERING AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL/
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THIS AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS SINCE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT SHOULD LESSEN THE HAIL THREAT.
A MORE ZONAL...STRAIGHT WEST TO EAST...UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WELL NORTH OF OUR
AREA ON FRIDAY. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR EVEN SPOTTY RAIN SHUTS DOWN ON
FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ABOVE THE SURFACE...SO EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM...
THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FROM FRIDAY CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS AND RAINFALL REMAINING UP IN THE MID SOUTH REGION.
LOCAL WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY WARM...MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW COMPONENT EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS MAY CAUSE THE
SURFACE FRONT TO SAG OR BACK DOOR INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT. A POOLING OF HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING...AND POSSIBLY A
WEAK DISTURBANCE OR TWO ALOFT SHOULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE PICTURE.
IT APPEARS A MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER OR NEAR THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD ARGUE
FOR A VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY FORECAST.
22/TD
AVIATION...
.PRELIMINARY 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. BKN015 WILL MAINLY OCCUR AT MCB AND BTR AND WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING. SCT-BKN050 SHOULD BE MAINLY SEEN AT MSY
AND GPT. SOME LIGHT BR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE SEEN FOR A SHORT TIME
AROUND MCB. VCTS WILL ALSO OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR MCB
AND COULD IMPACT BTR. EXPECT ALL CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AND DECAY AT
SUNSET. FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURS.
MARINE...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SURFACE RIDGE PARKED OVER FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE GULF COAST TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ATTM BUT MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SOME SH/TS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 70 89 69 89 / 10 0 0 10
BTR 72 90 71 91 / 10 0 0 10
MSY 72 88 73 88 / 10 0 0 10
GPT 72 86 73 85 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 071250
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
750 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009
.AVIATION...LCH MORNING SOUNDING SHOWING A MOIST MARINE LAYER BLO
4500 FEET. MULTI LYR CLDS MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME THE RULE THIS
MORNING. MVFR VIS WILL IMPROVE BY MID- MORNING. VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR VIS IN LIGHT FOG LATE TNITE WITH TEMPO IFR AT LFT,
ARA AND AEX.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009/
DISCUSSION....MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE
WILL BE DETERMINING POPS ESPECIALLY WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY...WILL HAVE LOW POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF I10 AS MODELS SFC BASED CAPES PROGGED NEAR 2500 J/KG.
WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE
LOW POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND INCREASING THTE ADVECTION. WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NORTH OR
BECOME DIFFUSE. LITTLE CHANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID 60S OR HIGHER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...APPROACH OF FRONT MAY BRING WEAK EASTERLY FLOW EARLY
NEXT WEEK...OTHERWISE WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL.
WILL HAVE A MODEST INCREASE IN WINDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN WEST TEXAS. SCEC
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
PUBLIC/MARINE...04
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 87 72 88 74 87 / 20 10 10 10 10
KBPT 88 73 89 74 87 / 20 10 10 10 10
KAEX 88 70 90 71 89 / 20 10 10 10 20
KLFT 87 70 89 72 88 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 071114 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
614 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009
.UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT A COUPLE OBSERVATIONS SITES. MAY ADD
SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR A COUPLE HOURS.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST OF OUR AREA MOVING
TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A
SUBTLE 850-700 MB CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH HALF OF LOUISIANA ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A VERY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION. SOME OF
THIS ENERGY SHOULD MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY DURING PEAK HEATING. SOME OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH SHOULD MOVE INTO MORE OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN OVERDOING THE POPS/QPF THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT COMBINATION OF FACTORS INCLUDING BETTER SURFACE HEATING
TODAY TO INCLUDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND BORDERING AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL/
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THIS AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS SINCE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT SHOULD LESSEN THE HAIL THREAT.
A MORE ZONAL...STRAIGHT WEST TO EAST...UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WELL NORTH OF OUR
AREA ON FRIDAY. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR EVEN SPOTTY RAIN SHUTS DOWN ON
FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ABOVE THE SURFACE...SO EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM...
THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FROM FRIDAY CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS AND RAINFALL REMAINING UP IN THE MID SOUTH REGION.
LOCAL WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY WARM...MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW COMPONENT EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS MAY CAUSE THE
SURFACE FRONT TO SAG OR BACK DOOR INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT. A POOLING OF HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING...AND POSSIBLY A
WEAK DISTURBANCE OR TWO ALOFT SHOULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE PICTURE.
IT APPEARS A MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER OR NEAR THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD ARGUE
FOR A VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY FORECAST.
22/TD
&&
AVIATION...
..PRELIMINARY 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. BKN015 WILL MAINLY OCCUR AT MCB AND BTR AND WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING. SCT-BKN050 SHOULD BE MAINLY SEEN AT MSY
AND GPT. SOME LIGHT BR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE SEEN FOR A SHORT TIME
AROUND MCB. VCTS WILL ALSO OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR MCB
AND COULD IMPACT BTR. EXPECT ALL CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AND DECAY AT
SUNSET. FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURS.
MARINE...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SURFACE RIDGE PARKED OVER FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE GULF COAST TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ATTM BUT MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SOME SH/TS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 70 89 69 / 40 10 0 0
BTR 88 72 90 71 / 30 10 0 0
MSY 88 72 88 73 / 20 10 0 0
GPT 85 72 86 73 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 071048
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
548 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT LAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE
REGION AND WAS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE EXACT
POSITION IS DEBATABLE BUT LOOKING AT STREAMLINE ANALYSIS ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...SEEMS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI WEST ACROSS SOUTH ARKANSAS/NORTH LOUISIANA AND ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS. ALOFT THE FLOW CONTINUED TO BE NEARLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY TILTED NORTHWEST WITH MANY SMALL DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE LOWER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION BUT ALOFT RAOB DATA AND
MODELS SUGGEST IT IS MUCH DRIER. DUE TO THE WET SOILS AND MOIST
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG INTO MID
MORNING. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING...WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME
DEVELOPMENT...BUT DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT KEEPING
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED AS ISOLATED. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT NORTH AND REMAIN A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA...UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE CLIMBING. SHORT WAVES WILL START
TO PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE NORTHERN ZONES...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30 WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES INTO SATURDAY.
AFTER SATURDAY ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING TO THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
AND TAPERING HIGHER INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA NEAR THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR...WITH PASSING DISTURBANCES KEEPING WEATHER ACTIVE
ALONG AND NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. AFTER MONDAY THE UPPER PATTERN
STARTS TO AMPLIFY A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM MEXICO NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 90S. /06/
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT COMBINED WITH RICH GULF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE
IFR CONDITIONS...DUE TO FOG...THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. FOG AND
CEILINGS SHOULD BURN OFF THROUGH 18Z WITH VICINITY THUNDERSTORM
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...STABLE CONDITIONS
RETURNING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. /05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 87 70 91 70 87 / 20 10 20 20 30
MLU 85 70 90 69 88 / 20 10 20 20 30
DEQ 86 68 88 69 76 / 20 20 30 40 50
TXK 86 70 89 69 82 / 20 10 20 30 40
ELD 86 69 90 69 85 / 20 20 20 30 40
TYR 88 71 89 70 85 / 20 10 20 10 30
GGG 88 71 91 70 87 / 20 10 20 10 30
LFK 90 72 91 72 89 / 20 10 20 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/05
000
FXUS64 KLIX 070956
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
456 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST OF OUR AREA MOVING
TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A
SUBTLE 850-700 MB CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH HALF OF LOUISIANA ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A VERY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION. SOME OF
THIS ENERGY SHOULD MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY DURING PEAK HEATING. SOME OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH SHOULD MOVE INTO MORE OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN OVERDOING THE POPS/QPF THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT COMBINATION OF FACTORS INCLUDING BETTER SURFACE HEATING
TODAY TO INCLUDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND BORDERING AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL/
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THIS AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS SINCE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT SHOULD LESSEN THE HAIL THREAT.
A MORE ZONAL...STRAIGHT WEST TO EAST...UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO SHIT THE TRACK OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WELL NORTH OF OUR
AREA ON FRIDAY. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR EVEN SPOTTY RAIN SHUTS DOWN ON
FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ABOVE THE SURFACE...SO EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...
THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FROM FRIDAY CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS AND RAINFALL REMAINING UP IN THE MID SOUTH REGION.
LOCAL WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY WARM...MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW COMPONENT EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS MAY CAUSE THE
SURFACE FRONT TO SAG OR BACK DOOR INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT. A POOLING OF HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING...AND POSSIBLY A
WEAK DISTURBANCE OR TWO ALOFT SHOULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE PICTURE.
IT APPEARS A MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER OR NEAR THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD ARGUE
FOR A VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY FORECAST.
22/TD
&&
.AVIATION...
...PRELIMINARY 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. BKN015 WILL MAINLY OCCUR AT MCB AND BTR AND WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING. SCT-BKN050 SHOULD BE MAINLY SEEN AT MSY
AND GPT. SOME LIGHT BR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE SEEN FOR A SHORT TIME
AROUND MCB. VCTS WILL ALSO OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR MCB
AND COULD IMPACT BTR. EXPECT ALL CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AND DECAY AT
SUNSET. FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURS.
&&
.MARINE...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SURFACE RIDGE PARKED OVER FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE GULF COAST TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ATTM BUT MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SOME SH/TS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 70 89 69 / 40 10 0 0
BTR 88 72 90 71 / 30 10 0 0
MSY 88 72 88 73 / 20 10 0 0
GPT 85 72 86 73 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
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