[top]
000
FXUS62 KTBW 081224
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
823 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP THE AREA WARM AND DRY TODAY WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AN AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE SPRINKLE OR SHOWER WELL
EAST OF I75. MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. HIGHS
TODAY FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 90S INLAND. NO
CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION (08/12Z - 09/12Z)...VFR. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON CUMULUS. LIGHT SSE WINDS VEER TO WESTERLY AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15 KT POSSIBLE DURING AND BEHIND SEA
BREEZE PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS...FAVORABLE
SEAS...AND NO HEADLINES ATTM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL RH BELOW 35 PERCENT WILL
IMPACT PORTIONS OF POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE INTERIOR...1 TO 3 HOURS OF LOW RH IS
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR HIGHLANDS-POLK.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
NP/RKR
[top]
000
FXUS62 KMFL 081148
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
748 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS S FL, HOWEVER AT
APF THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND AROUND MID DAY TO
VERY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SWITCHING WINDS TO THE SW UNTIL AROUND
SUNSET.
AT/DD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE FROM 29N TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SLIDE
SOUTH TO 28N TO SOUTH FLORIDA. ANYWAY, THE RIDGE IS FAIRLY WEAK
OVER FLORIDA WHICH MEANS THE SEA BREEZES WILL BE ACTIVE TO PRODUCE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR WHERE
THE SEA BREEZES MEET. THE SAME SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER STARTING
SATURDAY WITH MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER MEAN LAYER MOISTURE.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MIDDAY MONDAY AND
ENTER NORTH FLORIDA LATER MONDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS LOWER ENOUGH
THAT THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY
AND STALL THURSDAY. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN THIS AND THERE
MAY BE THUNDER POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL ONLY
BE 30 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR BUT THAT DOESN`T RULE OUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS. WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA, SOME
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S AND THE LOWS IN THE 60S INTERIOR AND WEST AND
NEAR 70 TO THE LOWER 70S EAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK.
MARINE...MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF LESS THAN 15 KT WILL
RESULT IN SEAS OF LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER...UPGRADED FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR GLADES, HENDRY AND EASTERN COLLIER COUNTIES TODAY FOR MIN
RH`S BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 HRS OR MORE. EVEN WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF DEW POINT RISING A BIT, THE AFTN MIN RH`S HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH
OF AN INCREASE LAST FEW DAYS AND NAM12 AND LOCAL WRF STILL SHOW
MIN RH`S BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 HRS OR MORE. THINK THE DEW POINTS
MAY INCREASE A BIT AND THE MIN RH`S WILL BE BETWEEN 37 AND 40
PERCENT FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 75 86 75 / - - - 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 77 87 76 / - - - 10
MIAMI 88 76 88 75 / - - - 10
NAPLES 85 70 86 71 / - - - 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ070.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ070.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...30/KOB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD
[top]
000
FXUS62 KMLB 080849
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
449 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY...
TODAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD ACROSS FL. THE RESULTING
INCREASED SUPPRESSION WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES DESPITE A SEA
BREEZE COLLISION EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH
RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO...THEY ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION (~10%).
MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A
FEW MID 90S POSSIBLE. COASTAL SECTIONS WILL SEE UPPER 80S. THE
RECORD HIGH AT MCO IS 94F (1975) BUT THINK WE`LL COME UP JUST
SHORT.
SAT-SUN...SFC RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HOT TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON WITH
E-W COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISION EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE VALUES LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE AND WITH
DEEPER SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA...EVEN ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
LOOKS UNLIKELY WITH CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM THIS WEEKEND UNDER MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW/MID
90S INLAND.
MON-TUES...SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE DISPLACED SOUTHWARD MON AND
TUES AS LOW PRESS SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTLINE BEGINS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.
FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT DUE TO BUILDING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COAST
AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THEIR COLLISION OVER THE
INTERIOR BUT STILL LOOKS TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION ANY POPS AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MON WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND THEN BECOMING MORE AVERAGE AROUND MID
80S/AROUND 90 TUES DUE TO ARRIVAL OF WEAK COOL FRONT.
WED-THURS...REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
AREA WED AND INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NOW.
MOISTURE BAND THEN LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA BY
LATE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EAST COAST AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. 10-15 KNOT SE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY AFTN. SEAS 2-3
FT NEARSHORE AND 4 FT OFFSHORE. THERE WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD WIND
CHOP BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BUT PRIMARY CONTRIBUTION TO WAVE HEIGHT
WILL BE AN EAST SWELL. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE THREAT OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES.
SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL KEEP FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS
NEARSHORE AND UP TO 10-15 KTS OFFSHORE WHILE SEAS WILL RANGE
AROUND 2-4 FT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDWEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...HAVE UPGRADED FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER THE INTERIOR TO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AROUND 4 HOURS OF CRITICAL RH. MIN RH VALUES
SHOULD BE AROUND 30 PERCENT. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
PARTICULARLY FIRE SENSITIVE DAY THOUGH AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...
OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE WARNING AREA.
AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES OVER THE INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND LOOK TO
STILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING A
FEW HOURS AOB 35 PERCENT. SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH ONSHORE EACH
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL KEEP RH ELEVATED ALONG THE COAST AND SHOULD
KEEP ALL INTERIOR SECTIONS FROM REACHING RED FLAG DURATION.
THEREFORE NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 91 68 92 68 / 10 10 10 10
MCO 92 70 94 69 / 10 10 10 10
MLB 90 70 88 69 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 88 69 86 65 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH
000
FXUS62 KMFL 080808
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
408 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE FROM 29N TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SLIDE
SOUTH TO 28N TO SOUTH FLORIDA. ANYWAY, THE RIDGE IS FAIRLY WEAK
OVER FLORIDA WHICH MEANS THE SEABREEZES WILL BE ACTIVE TO PRODUCE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR WHERE
THE SEABREEZES MEET. THE SAME SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER STARTING SATURDAY
WITH MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER MEAN LAYER MOISTURE.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MIDDAY MONDAY AND
ENTER NORTH FLORIDA LATER MONDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS LOWER ENOUGH
THAT THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY
AND STALL THURSDAY. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN THIS AND THERE
MAY BE THUNDER POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL ONLY
BE 30 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR BUT THAT DOESN`T RULE OUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS. WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA, SOME
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S AND THE LOWS IN THE 60S INTERIOR AND WEST AND
NEAR 70 TO THE LOWER 70S EAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF LESS THAN 15 KT WILL
RESULT IN SEAS OF LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPGRADED FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR GLADES, HENDRY AND EASTERN COLLIER COUNTIES TODAY FOR MIN RH`S
BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 HRS OR MORE. EVEN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
DEW POINT RISING A BIT, THE AFTN MIN RH`S HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH OF AN
INCREASE LAST FEW DAYS AND NAM12 AND LOCAL WRF STILL SHOW MIN
RH`S BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 HRS OR MORE. THINK THE DEW POINTS MAY
INCREASE A BIT AND THE MIN RH`S WILL BE BETWEEN 37 AND 40 PERCENT
FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 75 86 75 / - - - 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 77 87 76 / - - - 10
MIAMI 88 76 88 75 / - - - 10
NAPLES 85 70 86 71 / - - - 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ070.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ070.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...18/GR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
[top]
000
FXUS62 KJAX 080755
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
355 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009
...HOT WEEKEND COMING UP...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HEIGHTS WILL RISE TODAY AS MEAN LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE ENSUANT SUBSIDENCE WILL EFFECTIVELY
WARM UP AND DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. AMPLE SUNSHINE EACH DAY
PROMISES WIDESPREAD MAXES IN THE LOW 90S...WITH SOME MID 90
READINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY
SUBSTANTIALLY BY TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL FACE QUITE AN
UPHILL BATTLE...CANNOT ALTOGETHER RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES/INTERACTIONS...LESS THAN
15 PERCENT CHANCE ("SILENT POPS"). A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE (20%)
WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY RESULTING
IN A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS INDICATES ENOUGH MOMENTUM FOR THE FRONT TO CLEAR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...OPENING THE DOOR FOR COOLER/DRIER
AIR. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS SLOWER AND ACTUALLY STALLS
THE FRONT OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK
TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. GRIDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT A GFS SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH CIGS ABOVE 3 KFT. SHALLOW
GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE AT GNV AND VQQ EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR REDUCED VSBY.
&&
.MARINE...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGE
HOLDING FIRM SOUTH OF AREA. WINDS SHIFT TO NE AFTER COLD FRONT
MOVES THRU MON AND MAY REQUIRE CAUTION HEADLINES OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 91 65 92 67 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 87 69 88 70 / 10 10 0 0
JAX 92 67 93 68 / 10 10 0 0
SGJ 88 69 88 70 / 10 10 0 0
GNV 92 65 92 66 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 92 65 93 65 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHULER/TRABERT
[top]
000
FXUS62 KKEY 080739
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
339 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
ANOTHER VERY QUIET NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...
WITH RADAR DETECTING NO PRECIPITATION IN OR NEAR THE SERVICE AREA.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM CUBA
DISSIPATING OVER THE OUTER STRAITS...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE USUAL COLD
SPOT AT THE NORTH END OF BIG PINE KEY...WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING
HAS ALLOWED THE TEMP TO FALL TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. WINDS ON LAND ARE
FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...WHILE A
RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE GULF.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE KEYS...WHILE FLAT RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
FLORIDA AT THE MID LEVELS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SCARCE AND CONFINED TO THE LOW
LEVELS...UNDERNEATH A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH MUCH DRY
AIR ABOVE. GFS FORECAST PWATS REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW THE 25TH
PERCENTILE FOR MAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE ARE JUST A FEW MINOR THINGS TO KEEP AN EYE ON DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. A WEAK LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT ON THE 850 MB
CHARTS NEAR ANDROS ISLAND. THIS FEATURE DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD TODAY
AND TONIGHT...INDUCING NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE KEYS. THINK WE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SEE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOP DIRECTLY FROM THIS...BUT THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE THAT
MAINLAND ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE COULD DROP
SOUTHWEST BEYOND CAPE SABLE THIS EVENING. THIS IS SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON LATER TODAY...BUT THINK THE CHANCES ARE TOO REMOTE TO
INCLUDE ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
MODELS HINT THAT ANOTHER WEAK LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE WESTWARD
THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THIS IS ALSO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON...BUT
GIVEN THE VERY PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN LOCKED INTO FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...DO NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO PUT ANY
POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
OVERALL...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE...AND PERHAPS STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NOT MUCH OF NOTE HAPPENS ALOFT FOR US...WITH ANOTHER MID LATITUDE
TROUGH EXITING THE EAST COAST BY MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY EVEN STRONGER
RIDGING OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS...
ALTHOUGH STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING US A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR
A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH DIME POPS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS
EXPECTED. GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL. THE STRAITS
MAY SEE VERY SLIGHT WIND SPEED INCREASES AT NIGHT...WHILE FLORIDA BAY
MAY SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO MAINLAND
SEABREEZE INFLUENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS...WITH JUST FEW-SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 85 76 85 77 / - - - -
MARATHON 87 76 88 77 / - - - -
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........JACOBSON
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DFM
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
[top]
000
FXUS62 KTAE 080644
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
244 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND AND ALL INDICATE
PLEASANT AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND 65
DEGREES. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOCAL AREA WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND A
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM EAST
TO WEST. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE ACTIVITY
TO THE NORTH INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE LOCAL
AREA...OR NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING EAST FROM DOTHAN TO ALBANY.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD LIMIT CLOUD
GROWTH VERTICALLY (320K MID-LEVEL THETA-E VALUES). PWAT VALUES
WILL RANGE BETWEEN AN INCH AND 1.20 INCHES. NAM12 CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS DECKS AND AREAS OF FOG OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM (MON-FRI)...
IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A
BIT MORE UNSETTLED FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE THAN IN PREVIOUS GRID
CYCLES...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE OLDER (12 UTC RUN) OF THE
ECMWF IS STILL NOT COMPLETELY ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLUTION...SO WILL
LEAVE SOME SLGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD. FOR TEMPS..EXPECT A SLIGHT COOKTOWN FROM THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AND LOWS RETURNING BACK TOWARDS CLIMO LEVELS.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER
THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT. SEAS MAY BECOME LOCALLY CHOPPY
NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...FAIRLY TRICKY TAF PACKAGE OVERNIGHT AS ANY FOG AND LOW
CIG DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE REMAINING CIRRUS FROM
THE EARLIER MCS TO THE NW DISSIPATES. CURRENTLY...BELIEVE THE MOST
OPTIMISTIC FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE TO THE W...WITH POSSIBLE IFR
LEVELS AT VLD AND POSSIBLY ABY...BUT THIS FCST IS TENUOUS AND
CHANGEABLE AT BEST...SO SEVERAL UPDATES ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AS LONG AS DISPERSIONS AND TRANSPORT WIND SPEEDS REMAIN
LOW...NO FIRE WX CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO
UNLESS CALCULATIONS COME OUT OTHERWISE...WILL NOT NEED ANY WATCHES
OR WARNINGS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 64 91 67 91 65 / 10 10 10 10 10
PANAMA CITY 70 86 70 85 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
DOTHAN 66 91 67 91 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALBANY 66 91 67 91 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
VALDOSTA 63 91 67 92 65 / 10 10 10 10 10
CROSS CITY 64 90 66 90 64 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GIBBS/GOULD
000
FXUS62 KTBW 080549
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
149 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...ANOTHER ROUND OF SUNSHINE...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IN STORE. DRY AND WARM
MAY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
RIDING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE IS PARKED OVER THE STATE AND SHOWS NO SIGNS OF MOVING.
THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AT DAY-BREAK...BECOMING
WESTERLY AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE OFF THE GULF.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER INTERIOR AREAS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH VERY
LIMITED COVERAGE.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK FRONT
WILL SETTLE INTO NORTHERN FL MONDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EASTERN US COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPS REMAINING A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS IN STORE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE WATERS BY MID WEEK WITH
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AND PICKING UP TO
VALUES OVER 10 KNOTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL RH BELOW 35 PERCENT WILL
IMPACT PORTIONS OF POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE INTERIOR...1 TO 3 HOURS OF LOW RH IS
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 88 72 88 72 / 10 10 10 5
FMY 91 72 91 71 / 5 5 10 10
GIF 92 70 92 70 / 20 20 20 10
SRQ 85 72 87 71 / 10 10 10 5
BKV 89 65 89 67 / 10 10 10 5
SPG 85 73 86 73 / 10 10 10 5
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR HIGHLANDS-POLK.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CANTIN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...24/COLSON
000
FXUS62 KMFL 080529
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
129 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.AVIATION...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH MID MORNING, AND THEN BY AFTERNOON APF WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY WITH THE FORMATION OF THE SEA BREEZE. EAST COAST
TERMINALS WILL REMAIN SE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. /TINGLER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009/
AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND 2Z TO 3Z BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS AT KFLL.
THE WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP AGAIN TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
APF TAF SITE WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
UNTIL ABOUT 02Z...BEFORE GOING NORTHEAST LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FOR
REST OF THE NIGHT HOURS. THE WINDS WILL THEN BE EASTERLY FRIDAY
MORNING AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION AROUND 17Z AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
THE CEILING AND VIS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES WILL BE IN THE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NO RAINFALL FORECASTED DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009/
.E COLLIER...W BROWARD AND SE HENDRY COUNTIES, RESPECTIVELY. THESE
SHOWERS WILL PUNK AROUND A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE.
SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR. NO REAL CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST EXCEPT TO ELIMINATE FIRST PERIOD.
IN THE MARINE ZONES...NO REAL CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF
SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING IN
THE SHORT TERM. ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE THIS WILL MAKE IS THAT IT WILL
TEND TO LIFT THE SUBSIDENCE CAP ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LAYERS TO
BECOME LESS STABLE WITH ALSO AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THUS, THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY BUT STILL ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL BE WEAK ENOUGH HOWEVER TO KEEP THE
EAST AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS FREE OF PRECIPITATION. THERE COULD
BE ONE OR TWO SHOWERS THAT FORM IN THE ATLANTIC TO MOVE ONSHORE OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST AS IT SEEMS
TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION AND WILL ADJUST IF NEEDED.
IN THE EXTENDED, NOT MUCH CHANGE FORESEEN. HOWEVER, BOTH THE 00Z
RUNS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE SHOWING MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDING
FIRM BUT NOW THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THIS RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
NOT CHANGE TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY BUT COULD DESTABILIZE
ATMOSPHERE TO ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE CONVECTIVE STORMS. WILL NOT
CHANGE AT THIS TIME BUT NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE
CONSISTENCY WITH LATER RUNS.
MARINE...SOUTHEAST WIND OF LESS THAN 15 KT WILL RESULT IN SEAS OF
LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DEW POINTS TO INCREASE 2 TO 3 DEGREES THROUGH SATURDAY.
UNTIL THEN, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS SO RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL RAISE THE DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY BUT STILL RH
VALUES IN THIS SAME AREA WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR TWO TO
THREE HOURS. THIS WILL NOT MEET DURATION CRITERIA SO A WATCH IS
NOT IN PLACE BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 76 87 75 / - - - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 77 87 77 / - - - -
MIAMI 88 76 88 76 / - - - -
NAPLES 87 71 88 72 / - - - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ070.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...18/GR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
000
FXUS62 KKEY 080210
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1010 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE KEY WEST EVENING UPPER-AIR OBSERVATION REVEALED A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC STRATIFICATION WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. IN ADDITION...CONDITIONS WERE QUITE DRY ABOVE 1000FT.
SUBSEQUENTLY...DEEP CUMULUS CONVECTION IS NOT A REALISTIC SCENARIO
GIVEN OBSERVED PROFILES. SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO RAIN OVER THE SERVICE AREA THIS
EVENING. THE SURFACE CHART SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. SURFACE WINDS ARE DOWN A LITTLE FROM RECENT EVENINGS...
CURRENTLY FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KT AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS SOUND AND NO UPDATES ARE NECESSARY AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
THROUGH 12Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS...WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10
KNOTS.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FUTTERMAN
DATA COLLECTION.......ROSS
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KTBW 080118
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
918 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHED WELL INLAND
WITH THE COLLISION JUST RECENTLY OCCURRING IN A SIMILAR LOCATION
TO LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS FROM EASTERN POLK COUNTY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH HIGHLANDS COUNTY AND THEN INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. COULD STILL
SEE A SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THIS COLLISION IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
BEFORE THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS TOO MUCH...OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS SOME MORE
HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS DRIFT SOUTHEAST FROM STORMS OVER
ALABAMA/FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY
CHANGES WILL BE TO ADJUST WORDING OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME CHANCE OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG...ESPECIALLY AROUND FMY AND RSW NEAR SUNRISE.
&&
.MARINE...NO CHANGES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE RATHER LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A SHIFT TO ONSHORE WITH
THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. PRESENT MARINE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR LATE EVENING
FORECAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HAVE ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR POLK AND
HIGHLANDS COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY AS DRY AIR MIXES DOWN
LEADING TO SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 71 88 71 88 / 10 10 10 10
FMY 71 91 71 91 / 10 5 5 10
GIF 69 92 70 92 / 10 20 20 20
SRQ 68 85 71 88 / 10 10 10 10
BKV 60 89 64 90 / 10 10 10 10
SPG 73 85 73 86 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR HIGHLANDS-POLK.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
AVIATION...63/JILLSON
000
FXUS62 KJAX 080114
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
914 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ALL AREAS
GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS. SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP THAT IS IN PLACE.
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WAS MUCH WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY AND STAYED
PINNED NEAR THE COAST. FOG TOOLS INDICATE AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION LATER TONIGHT FROM MOISTURE POOLING
FROM THE GULF. HOWEVER THERE WILL ALSO PROBABLY BE PATCHES OF SHALLOW
FOG MOST AREAS AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. HAVE TEMPO MVFR
VISIBILITY AT VQQ AND GNV BETWEEN 08Z-12Z.
&&
.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. SOUTH WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS AND SEAS
2 TO 3 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 3 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 65 92 64 91 / 10 10 0 10
SSI 69 87 69 87 / 10 20 10 10
JAX 66 91 66 92 / 10 20 10 10
SGJ 68 87 69 88 / 10 10 10 10
GNV 64 92 64 92 / 10 10 0 10
OCF 63 92 64 93 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
PP/PK/SL
000
FXUS62 KTAE 080049
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
830 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
...LOCAL AREA WILL EXPERIENCE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND...
.SYNOPSIS...
DURING THURS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...THE MCS INDUCED INDUCED BY A LOW
LEVEL COLD POOL INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...AND LIKELY ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...
REMAINED ANCHORED S/CNTRL ALA/W/CNTRL GA. AT 8 PM CDT...THE MAIN
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED OVER SE
CRENSHAW/NE COVINGTON COUNTIES ENHANCED...PER MSAS...BY SURFACE SE
AND SW WINDS CONVERGING. AFTER 8 PM...STORM BEGAN TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY AS THE SURFACE INSTABILITY COLLAPSED AND RADAR/OBS INDICATED
THAT MAINLY CIRRUS BLOWOFF REMAINING OVER SE ALA/SW GA. LINGERING
PRECIP SHOULD LARGELY END AFTER 10 PM EDT...WHICH MESHES WELL WITH
UPDATED ZFP.
AT UPPER LEVELS...
VERY DEAMPLIFIED CONUS PATTERN WITH BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF. THIS ALLOWS SEVERAL IMPULSES TO MOVE
THRU FAST WLY FLOW. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TRACKS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD KY/WV BY FRI EVE BUT SHOULD BE TOO FAR N TO
IMPACT LOCAL AREA. ALL THIS TRANSLATES TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW
(SLIGHT WNW COMPONENT) DOMINATING LOCAL AREA WITH OVERALL
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO BE VERY WEAK ACROSS REGION INTO
WEEKEND.
AT LOWER LEVELS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF MID-ATLC COAST WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SWWD CNTRL FL PROVIDING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS CWA.
COLD FRONT OVER TX PANHANDLE WITH FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS TENN
VALLEY AND THEN NNE UP EAST COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...REST OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT INLAND LOWS FROM UPPER 60S SE ALA/SW GA TO MID
60S ELSEWHERE. WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND DEW POINTS PROJECTED TO BE
AROUND 70 AT THE COAST AND MID 60S INLAND...AREAS OF FOG AND STATUS
CIGS WILL DEVELOP AFT 08Z. LOCALLY DENSE FOG A GOOD BET. UPDATED ZFP
TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING...ADD FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS AND TWEAK
CLOUD COVER.
FOR FRIDAY...ALL OF THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT 500
MB HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES RETREAT
NORTHWARD. THE CORRESPONDING MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING WILL CREATE A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS REFLECTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. I.E. GFS TAE WITH 1.37 INCH PWAT AT 00Z FRI DOWN TO ABOUT
1 INCH BY 00Z SAT. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES WITH INLAND HIGHS HOVERING AROUND 90 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION IS
QUICKLY WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF
LOW CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT IS FORECAST FOR ALL
TERMINALS...WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE BY 14Z FRIDAY. THE MOST PESSIMISTIC
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR AT THE TLH AND VLD TERMINALS WITH
TEMPOS FOR VLIFR VSBYS/CIGS FROM 08Z TO 13Z.
&&
.MARINE...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS KEYING ON DRYING ALOFT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 60...MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL APPROACH 35 PERCENT OVER ERN PORTIONS OF
THE FL BIG BEND.
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
BLOCK/BARRY
000
FXUS62 KMLB 080038
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
840 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
NARY AN ECHO ON THE SCOPE THIS EVENING AS LCL AIR MASS JUST DIDN`T
HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO GENERATE MUCH VERTICAL GROWTH TO THE
DIURNAL CU FIELD. RESIDUAL DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRC WILL GIVE WAY TO
LGT SRLY FLOW IN ANOTHER COUPLE HRS. MADE EARLY ZFP/GRID UPDATE TO
REMOVE POPS...SO NO NEED FOR ANOTHER.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR/SKC FOR THE MOST PART. COULD SEE SOME THIN CI/CS
FROM SERN CONUS CONVECTION STRAFE THE NRN OR CTRL CWA...HOWEVER IT
LOOKS TO BE THINNING/DISSIPATING AS IT HEADS SE...AND IS OF NO
CONSEQUENCE ANYWAY.
&&
.MARINE...MADE CHG TO CAP SEA HGTS AT 4FT TONIGHT THRU TMRW NGT. FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WNAWAVE HAS BEEN PROGGING 5FT SEAS THAT JUST
HAVE NOT BEEN THERE ACCORDING TO BUOY/C-MAN OBS...AND ALTHOUGH PSBL
...DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEEING 41009 OR 41010 COME UP MUCH ABOVE THEIR
PERSISTENT READINGS OF 3.5 TO 4.0FT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RFW VERIFIED IN A FEW INTR LOCATIONS...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART WAS A 1-3HR EVENT. TMRW LOOKS TRICKY AS WELL AS RH VALUES
ARE LKLY TO DROP INTO THE L-M30S...BUT MAY NOT REACH CRITICAL 4HR
DURATIONS. NO CHGS TO FRI`S FWW FOR THE INTR.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING FOR INLAND VOLUSIA-
NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
CRISTALDI
000
FXUS62 KMFL 072328 AAC
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
728 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND 2Z TO 3Z BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS AT KFLL.
THE WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP AGAIN TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
APF TAF SITE WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
UNTIL ABOUT 02Z...BEFORE GOING NORTHEAST LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FOR
REST OF THE NIGHT HOURS. THE WINDS WILL THEN BE EASTERLY FRIDAY
MORNING AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION AROUND 17Z AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
THE CEILING AND VIS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES WILL BE IN THE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NO RAINFALL FORECASTED DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009/
..E COLLIER...W BROWARD AND SE HENDRY COUNTIES, RESPECTIVELY. THESE
SHOWERS WILL PUNK AROUND A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE.
SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR. NO REAL CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST EXCEPT TO ELIMINATE FIRST PERIOD.
IN THE MARINE ZONES...NO REAL CHANGES.
&&
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF
SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING IN
THE SHORT TERM. ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE THIS WILL MAKE IS THAT IT WILL
TEND TO LIFT THE SUBSIDENCE CAP ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LAYERS TO
BECOME LESS STABLE WITH ALSO AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THUS, THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY BUT STILL ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL BE WEAK ENOUGH HOWEVER TO KEEP THE
EAST AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS FREE OF PRECIPITATION. THERE COULD
BE ONE OR TWO SHOWERS THAT FORM IN THE ATLANTIC TO MOVE ONSHORE OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST AS IT SEEMS
TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION AND WILL ADJUST IF NEEDED.
IN THE EXTENDED, NOT MUCH CHANGE FORESEEN. HOWEVER, BOTH THE 00Z
RUNS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE SHOWING MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDING
FIRM BUT NOW THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THIS RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
NOT CHANGE TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY BUT COULD DESTABILIZE
ATMOSPHERE TO ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE CONVECTIVE STORMS. WILL NOT
CHANGE AT THIS TIME BUT NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE
CONSISTENCY WITH LATER RUNS.
MARINE...SOUTHEAST WIND OF LESS THAN 15 KT WILL RESULT IN SEAS OF
LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DEW POINTS TO INCREASE 2 TO 3 DEGREES THROUGH SATURDAY.
UNTIL THEN, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS SO RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL RAISE THE DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY BUT STILL RH
VALUES IN THIS SAME AREA WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR TWO TO
THREE HOURS. THIS WILL NOT MEET DURATION CRITERIA SO A WATCH IS
NOT IN PLACE BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 87 76 87 / - - - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 86 77 87 / - - - -
MIAMI 76 88 76 88 / - - - -
NAPLES 70 87 71 88 / - - - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ070.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...30/KOB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD
000
FXUS62 KMFL 072307 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
705 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
THE E COAST SEA BREEZE AGAIN COLLIDED WITH A LAKE BREEZE OFF OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...AND...THE E AND W COAST SEA BREEZES AGAIN COLLIDED OVER
THE INTERIOR. EACH COLLISION GENERATED SOME SHOWERS IN W PALM BEACH
COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL INTERIOR OF SOUTH ENCOMPASSING W MIAMI-DADE
...E COLLIER...W BROWARD AND SE HENDRY COUNTIES, RESPECTIVELY. THESE
SHOWERS WILL PUNK AROUND A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE.
SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR. NO REAL CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST EXCEPT TO ELIMINATE FIRST PERIOD.
IN THE MARINE ZONES...NO REAL CHANGES.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF
SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING IN
THE SHORT TERM. ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE THIS WILL MAKE IS THAT IT WILL
TEND TO LIFT THE SUBSIDENCE CAP ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LAYERS TO
BECOME LESS STABLE WITH ALSO AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THUS, THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY BUT STILL ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL BE WEAK ENOUGH HOWEVER TO KEEP THE
EAST AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS FREE OF PRECIPITATION. THERE COULD
BE ONE OR TWO SHOWERS THAT FORM IN THE ATLANTIC TO MOVE ONSHORE OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST AS IT SEEMS
TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION AND WILL ADJUST IF NEEDED.
IN THE EXTENDED, NOT MUCH CHANGE FORESEEN. HOWEVER, BOTH THE 00Z
RUNS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE SHOWING MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDING
FIRM BUT NOW THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THIS RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
NOT CHANGE TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY BUT COULD DESTABILIZE
ATMOSPHERE TO ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE CONVECTIVE STORMS. WILL NOT
CHANGE AT THIS TIME BUT NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE
CONSISTENCY WITH LATER RUNS.
&&
.MARINE...SOUTHEAST WIND OF LESS THAN 15 KT WILL RESULT IN SEAS OF
LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DEW POINTS TO INCREASE 2 TO 3 DEGREES THROUGH SATURDAY.
UNTIL THEN, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS SO RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL RAISE THE DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY BUT STILL RH
VALUES IN THIS SAME AREA WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR TWO TO
THREE HOURS. THIS WILL NOT MEET DURATION CRITERIA SO A WATCH IS
NOT IN PLACE BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 87 76 87 / - - - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 86 77 87 / - - - -
MIAMI 76 88 76 88 / - - - -
NAPLES 70 87 71 88 / - - - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...30/KB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD
000
FXUS62 KMFL 072131 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
531 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO THE FIRE PRODUCT. THE LATEST 18Z NAM AND 15Z WRF
SHOWS THAT THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR AND NORTHERN INLAND COLLIER AREAS
WILL SEE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 HOURS
OR MORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE PATTERN NOT
CHANGING MUCH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR AND NORTHERN INLAND COLLIER
COUNTY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST CYCLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF SOUTHEAST
FLOW WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT
TERM. ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE THIS WILL MAKE IS THAT IT WILL TEND TO
LIFT THE SUBSIDENCE CAP ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LAYERS TO BECOME LESS
STABLE WITH ALSO AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME THUNDER OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BY SATURDAY BUT STILL ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL BE WEAK ENOUGH HOWEVER TO KEEP THE EAST AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS FREE OF PRECIPITATION. THERE COULD BE ONE
OR TWO SHOWERS THAT FORM IN THE ATLANTIC TO MOVE ONSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST AS IT SEEMS
TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION AND WILL ADJUST IF NEEDED.
IN THE EXTENDED, NOT MUCH CHANGE FORESEEN. HOWEVER, BOTH THE 00Z
RUNS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE SHOWING MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDING
FIRM BUT NOW THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THIS RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
NOT CHANGE TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY BUT COULD DESTABILIZE
ATMOSPHERE TO ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE CONVECTIVE STORMS. WILL NOT
CHANGE AT THIS TIME BUT NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE
CONSISTENCY WITH LATER RUNS.
MARINE...SOUTHEAST WIND OF LESS THAN 15 KT WILL RESULT IN SEAS OF
LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DEW POINTS TO INCREASE 2 TO 3 DEGREES THROUGH SATURDAY.
UNTIL THEN, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS SO RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL RAISE THE DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY BUT STILL RH
VALUES IN THIS SAME AREA WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR TWO TO
THREE HOURS. THIS WILL NOT MEET DURATION CRITERIA SO A WATCH IS
NOT IN PLACE BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 87 76 87 / - - - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 86 77 87 / - - - -
MIAMI 76 88 76 88 / - - - -
NAPLES 70 87 71 88 / - - - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ070.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...30/KOB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD
000
FXUS62 KTAE 071915
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
315 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SMALL MCS THAT REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA THIS MORNING HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION. AFTER
GOING SEVERAL HOURS WITHOUT SEVERE WEATHER (OTHER THAN FLOODING)...THE
STORMS APPEAR TO HAVE RE-ENERGIZED AND WE HAD TO ISSUE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING. AS MENTIONED THIS MORNING...THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A SYNOPTIC SCALE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ITS PROBABLY STILL BEING DRIVEN BY A LOW LEVEL COLD
POOL INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THERE MAY ALSO HAVE BEEN SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE. THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS (30-35 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR...SBCAPE
1000-2000 J/KG)...BUT LOCALIZED SHEAR ENHANCEMENT IS PROBABLY
OCCURRING ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE SURFACE INSTABILITY
COLLAPSES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ALL OF THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING THROUGH SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES RETREAT NORTHWARD. THE CORRESPONDING
MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL CREATE A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ALONG WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN MONDAY AS STRONGER A SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL SERVE TO NUDGE THE QUASI-STATIONARY
SFC FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA...LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND HIGHER POPS. WILL ALSO SEE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WITH THE RESULTANT EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW PUSHING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FROM E-CNTRL AL TO SW GA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SE 10-15 KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS
WITH THE TSRA AT KDHN AND KABY THROUGH 23Z. FURTHER
SOUTH...CONVECTION WILL BE TO ISOLD TO MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO
DRIER/MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. S TO SW WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WITH THE SEA
BREEZE...THEN DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WHEN MOST CONVECTION SHOULD
BEGIN TO FADE. A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF LOW CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING
AFTER MIDNIGHT IS FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS...WHICH SHOULD
IMPROVE BY 14Z FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS KEYING ON DRYING ALOFT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 60...MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL APPROACH 35 PERCENT OVER ERN PORTIONS OF
THE FL BIG BEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 64 91 64 91 66 / 10 0 10 10 10
PANAMA CITY 70 83 70 84 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
DOTHAN 67 91 67 91 67 / 20 0 10 10 10
ALBANY 68 92 66 91 65 / 20 10 10 10 10
VALDOSTA 63 91 64 90 65 / 10 10 10 10 10
CROSS CITY 64 89 64 89 64 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER
000
FXUS62 KMLB 071850
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
250 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
NOW-FRI...EXTENSIVE CU FIELD VISIBLE ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A LITTLE BIT OF ENHANCED ACTIVITY VISIBLE ALONG
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND AROUND LAKE GEORGE.
SYNOPTICALLY...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARDS IN
RESPONSE TO THE TRAILING END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH THE FLOW ABOVE 850 MB OR SO HAVING
SHIFTED TO THE SW. SOMEWHAT OF INTEREST IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IS
THE SUPPRESSION OF THE CU FIELD OVER NORTH FLORIDA...IN RESPONSE
TO THE NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION BEHIND THE SOUTH END OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND THE EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE AL/SW GA.
THE QUESTION OF LIGHTNING STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SEEMS TO BE BASED ON HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT VORT MAX OVER SE GEORGIA
SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. WITH THE EC SEABREEZE
MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS INLAND...MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM NW VOLUSIA DOWN INTO CENTRAL MARTIN
COUNTY. EVEN IF THE VORT MAX DOESN`T MOVE DOWN BEFORE SUNSET...THE
SEABREEZE COLLISION WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST A FEW
SHOWERS. ANYTHING THAT FORMS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING AS THE VORT MAX LIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HELPING TO STABILIZE THE LOWER LEVEL OF
THE ATMOSPHERE.
RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE
STABLE TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS. ALTHOUGH A SEA BREEZE COLLISION
WILL OCCUR EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...RAIN CHANCES LOOK
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE INCREASINGLY SUPPRESSED ATMOS. RIDGE
AXIS REMAINING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BRINGING CONTINUING S-SW
FLOW AND TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MAX TEMPS LOW- MID
90S INTERIOR... AROUND 90 VOLUSIA COAST...AND UPPER 80S SOUTH OF
THE CAPE.
SAT-SUN...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH PENINSULA
...PRODUCING A SYNOPTIC SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL TURN ONSHORE
EACH AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SEA BREEZES. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS ANOTHER
WEAK 250 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SAT FOLLOWED BY
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED BY THE NAM TO NOT CHANGE MUCH
FROM THEIR CURRENT VALUES...A LITTLE OVER AN INCH. THE GFS SHOWS A
LITTLE HIGHER VALUES SAT ACROSS THE NORTH BUT THESE NARROW MOISTURE
BANDS HAVE EITHER NOT VERIFIED WELL OR NOT PRODUCED MUCH CONVECTION
IN THE PAST WEEK OR SO. ALSO 500 MB TEMPS OF MINUS 7-8 DO NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION GIVEN THE STAGNANT MOISTURE LEVELS. HENCE
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
WITH INCREASING SUN ANGLE...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW...LATER SEA BREEZE
...WARMING SHELF WATERS...STEADILY BAKING GROUND...TEMPS IN THE 90S
WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS IN THE
MID 90S.
MON-THU (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVES
CARVING OUT A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS MONDAY
WHICH IS FCST TO BREAK DOWN THE PERSISTENT ATLC RIDGE ACROSS FL.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR NORTH TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD AND CROSS THE AREA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AROUND
TUE. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL BRING MAX TEMPS DOWN RIGHT AROUND
AVERAGE (UPPER 80S INTERIOR/MID 80S COAST). HAVE KEPT TUE DRY FOR
NOW BUT DEPENDING ON TIMING MAY NEED TO ADD A SMALL POP ESP NORTH
HALF FOR AFTN CONVECTION ALG/AHEAD OF FRONT.
THERE SHOULD BE A SUFFICIENT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH
FRONTAL BAND TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE OF ATLC SHOWERS
WITH THE SURGE OF E/NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY IN DEEPENING ONSHORE FLOW.
THINK CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION (THUNDER) WILL BE FOCUSED ON
WEST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA.
&&
.AVIATION...OCNL CIGS AOA FL040-060 W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
ISOLD MVFR SHRAS/TSRAS ASSOCD WITH A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISION
ALONG A LINE FROM KDAB TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE THROUGH 08/02Z. VFR ALL
SITES AFT 08/03Z WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...
FRI-SUN...LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNING ONSHORE EACH
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. PRIMARY CONTRIBUTION TO WAVE HEIGHT
WILL BE A 3-4 FOOT EAST SWELL WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATE THE RIP
CURRENT THREAT AT THE BEACHES.
MON-TUE...THE LATEST GFS INDICATES THAT THE FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH HAS
BEEN STALLED OUT WELL TO OUR NORTH FOR QUITE SOME TIME WILL START TO
SHIFT SOUTH...REACHING THE LOCAL AREA ON TUES. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CHANGE TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXTENSIVE CU FIELD HAS KEPT DEWPOINTS UP A DEGREE
OR TWO SO FAR ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY...KEEPING RH VALUES JUST
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. WITH THE EC SEABREEZE NOT EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS MUCH FURTHER INLAND THAN CURRENTLY SEEN...AND CONTINUING
SW FLOW...STILL ANTICIPATING A DEWPOINT CRASH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS ADDITIONAL MIXING OCCURS. HAVE KEPT THE RED FLAG WARNING
UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HAVE ALSO
POSTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAME REGIONS TOMORROW AS
THINGS DRY OUT FURTHER WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE
REGION.
SAT-TUE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST MON. AN AFTERNOON OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAY MAKE A RUN
AT LOW RH DURATIONS. LATEST GFS MODEL SHOWS A FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING
EARLY TUE WITH NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 68 92 68 90 / 20 10 10 10
MCO 71 93 69 92 / 10 10 10 10
MLB 70 89 71 89 / 20 10 10 10
VRB 69 87 70 89 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN LAKE-
OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN LAKE.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....LASCODY
000
FXUS62 KJAX 071830
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
...VERY WARM AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER FLOW HAS BECOME NW ACROSS THE AREA IN THE PAST
24 HOURS. SLOW-MOVING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE
TSTMS OVER SE AL. HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
SPREADING INTO OUR NW ZONES...KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN AND
LIMITING THE POSSIBILITY OF NEW CONVECTION. BEST DEVELOPMENT ON CU
FIELD THUS FAR IS OVER OUR S ZONES ONCE AGAIN. SEABREEZES HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS WITH THE GULF
BREEZE BEING MOST PREDOMINANT. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM AROUND 80 IN OUR NW ZONES TO THE UPPER 80S OVER THE NE
FL INTERIOR.
.SHORT TERM...LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT OTHERWISE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR SE GA. WILL LIKELY
SEE DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE SEABREEZE COLLISION ZONE
LATER THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING...BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 301 AND
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDORS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT E TOWARD THE
COAST IN THE EVENING HOURS.
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL RETURN FOR FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH MINIMAL...MAINLY SEABREEZE-INDUCED...PRECIP. MAX TEMPS WILL
SOAR INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH A FEW MID 90S
POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR OF NE FL.
.LONG TERM...GFS FAIRLY CONSISTENT NOW WITH COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE NOT CHANGED FORECAST MUCH...BUT DID
REDUCE MIN TEMPS MON NIGHT AS FRONT PROGGED TO BE A BIT FASTER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE COASTAL TAF SITES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BUT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT DUE TO A STRENGTHENING CAP IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.
&&
.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 65 92 64 91 / 20 10 0 10
SSI 69 87 69 87 / 20 20 10 10
JAX 66 91 66 92 / 20 20 10 10
SGJ 68 87 69 88 / 20 10 10 10
GNV 64 92 64 92 / 10 10 0 10
OCF 63 92 64 93 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
CARROLL/ZAPPE/KEEGAN
000
FXUS62 KMFL 071814
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
214 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST CYCLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF SOUTHEAST
FLOW WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT
TERM. ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE THIS WILL MAKE IS THAT IT WILL TEND TO
LIFT THE SUBSIDENCE CAP ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LAYERS TO BECOME LESS
STABLE WITH ALSO AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME THUNDER OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BY SATURDAY BUT STILL ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL BE WEAK ENOUGH HOWEVER TO KEEP THE EAST AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS FREE OF PRECIPITATION. THERE COULD BE ONE
OR TWO SHOWERS THAT FORM IN THE ATLANTIC TO MOVE ONSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST AS IT SEEMS
TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION AND WILL ADJUST IF NEEDED.
IN THE EXTENDED, NOT MUCH CHANGE FORESEEN. HOWEVER, BOTH THE 00Z
RUNS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE SHOWING MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDING
FIRM BUT NOW THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THIS RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
NOT CHANGE TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY BUT COULD DESTABILIZE
ATMOSPHERE TO ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE CONVECTIVE STORMS. WILL NOT
CHANGE AT THIS TIME BUT NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE
CONSISTENCY WITH LATER RUNS.
&&
.MARINE...SOUTHEAST WIND OF LESS THAN 15 KT WILL RESULT IN SEAS OF
LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DEW POINTS TO INCREASE 2 TO 3 DEGREES THROUGH SATURDAY.
UNTIL THEN, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS SO RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL RAISE THE DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY BUT STILL RH
VALUES IN THIS SAME AREA WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR TWO TO
THREE HOURS. THIS WILL NOT MEET DURATION CRITERIA SO A WATCH IS
NOT IN PLACE BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 87 76 87 / - - - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 86 77 87 / - - - -
MIAMI 76 88 76 88 / - - - -
NAPLES 70 87 71 88 / - - - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...30/KB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD
000
FXUS62 KMFL 071803
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
203 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH NO WEATHER-RELATED CONCERNS AT ANY
TERMINAL. FEW/SCT CU AND SC WILL PERSIST BETWEEN FL025-035 AT ALL
ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS...BENEATH A LAYER OF SCT/BKN CI. SE FLOW
OPERATIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ON THE EAST COAST...
WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED. AT APF...SW FLOW
8-12 KNOTS WILL RELAX SHORTLY AFTER DUSK...WITH INCREASING SSE
WINDS ANTICIPATED AFTER DAWN ON FRIDAY.
70/DD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009/
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MORNING UPDATES PLANNED OTHER THAN TO
TAKE OUT MORNING WORDING TO THE HWO PRODUCT. THE 12Z MFL
SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONGER SUBSIDENCE CAP THAN 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO
SO LITTLE CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL HOWEVER
STILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NO DOUBT DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE REGION AS AFTERNOON TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S ESPECIALLY IN THE ZONES JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE
OKEE. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL PILOT REPORTS THIS MORNING REPORTING
MULTIPLE WATERSPOUTS 10 MILES OFFSHORE OF THE PBI COAST. THERE IS
A CONVERGENT BAND OF CU IN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WHICH
REMAINS LESS THAN 10 KT QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR WATERSPOUT FORMATION.
FOR THIS REASON, WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO.
30/KOB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...LOW/MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SW TO THE GULF OF MEX THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. NEW MDLS RUNS ONCE AGAIN
INDICATE THE SRN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE ERN U.S. AND ERODING THE RIDGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. IN FACT, GFS SHOWS A WEAK
FRONT-LIKE FEATURE COMING AS FAR SOUTH TO CENTRAL IN RESPONSE TO A
LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER ERN U.S. TUE NIGHT/WED.
HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES DIFFUSE AS THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER TROUGH LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST. TILL THEN, THOUGH, A MOSTLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE E/SE FLOW REGIME WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. LOCAL EFFECTS SUCH AS SEA/LAKE BREEZES CONVERGENCE,
DIURNAL HEATING AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST INTERIOR AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE PENETRATES
INLAND AND CONVERGES WITH THE PREVAILING E/SE FLOW.
HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES (90+) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS WITH MAX REACHING THE MID 90S FROM THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THE
TEMPS KEEPING THEM IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG, BOTH, WESTERN
AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS.
MARINE...A GENTLE TO MODERATE MOSTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
(AOB 15 KTS) SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SEAS MOSTLY
AT 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PACKAGE.
FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER AGAIN TODAY ACROSS
GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES AS TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE U 50S TO AROUND 60 TO RESULT IN RH
VALUES FALLING BELOW 35 FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS. THEREFORE, A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES. RH VALUES COULD
FALL TO NEAR 35% ACROSS OTHER AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA BUT DURATION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE PERSISTENT
SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS GRADUALLY CLIMBING UP THROUGH
THE THE WEEKEND, WITH MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS FROM FRIDAY ON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 73 86 72 / - - - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 74 86 74 / - - - -
MIAMI 87 75 88 75 / - - - -
NAPLES 88 69 88 70 / - - - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...30/KOB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD
000
FXUS62 KTBW 071706
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
106 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE PENINSULA...LIGHT BACKGROUND FLOW
WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO EASILY MOVE INLAND EACH AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE SHOWS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES EAST OF
I-75. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S INLAND. WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WITH LOWS FROM 65 TO 70.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...BEGINS WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS FL FROM THE ATLANTIC. AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SE U.S. MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH A WEAK
FRONT SAGGING IN OVER NORTH FL AND DISSIPATING...AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SLIDES EAST. ON WED AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OUT OVER THE GULF
FROM MEXICO..REACHING FL BY THU...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST RIDGES TO THE EASTERN GULF AND FL.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE AVERAGE BUT DROP SLIGHTLY MID AND LATE
WEEK WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN AS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST HIGH BUILDS
SOUTH. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE FRONT WASHES OUT NORTH OF THE AREA BUT
AN EXPECTED SEA BREEZE EACH DAY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION (07/18Z - 08/18Z)...VFR. PREVAILING CIRRUS WITH SOME
CUMULUS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS 7-9KT THIS
MORNING...SW 9-11KT IN THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING AND MOSTLY WEST
AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRES
OVER THE WATERS. NO HEADLINES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WILL CONTINUE RFW THIS AFTERNOON FOR OUR INTERIOR
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...LOOKS CLOSE AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT RH GRIDS
SHOW DURATIONS JUST UNDER 4 HR SO WILL HOLD OFF WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 71 88 71 88 / 10 10 10 10
FMY 71 91 71 91 / 20 5 5 10
GIF 69 92 70 92 / 20 20 20 20
SRQ 68 85 71 88 / 10 10 10 10
BKV 60 89 64 90 / 20 10 10 10
SPG 73 85 73 86 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DE SOTO-HARDEE-
HIGHLANDS-POLK.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...17/PETRO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE
000
FXUS62 KKEY 071432
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1030 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STRETCHED
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...RESULTING IN
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. ALOFT...THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A WEAKENING AND
LIFTING OUT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS MORNINGS
SOUNDING INDICATED SOUTHEAST FLOW UP TO THE INVERSION LAYER BASED
AROUND 6000 FT. THIS INVERSION LAYER IS TOPPED BY QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR...AND PWATS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AT JUST OVER AN INCH. THIS
STABLE ENVIRONMENT HAS KEPT A LID ON THINGS...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS ONLY NARROW CLOUD LINES DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE COME UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES THUS FAR...WITH DEW
POINTS NEAR 70.
SHORT RANGE UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON) - NO CHANGES TO REPORT IN THIS
UPDATE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LIKELY DROPPING A FEW KNOTS BELOW YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE AND ANOTHER SURGE IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD KEEP THEM OUT OF
THE KEYS AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS FLORIDA WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE ACROSS KEYS WATERS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE NOW FAMILIAR
DIURNAL PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS DYING
DOWN HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. NO CHANGES REQUIRED FOR THE MORNING MARINE
UPDATE.
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
11/APA/WAH
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KMFL 071349
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
949 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MORNING UPDATES PLANNED OTHER THAN
TO TAKE OUT MORNING WORDING TO THE HWO PRODUCT. THE 12Z MFL
SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONGER SUBSIDENCE CAP THAN 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO
SO LITTLE CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL HOWEVER
STILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NO DOUBT DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE REGION AS AFTERNOON TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S ESPECIALLY IN THE ZONES JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
LAKE OKEE. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL PILOT REPORTS THIS MORNING
REPORTING MULTIPLE WATERSPOUTS 10 MILES OFFSHORE OF THE PBI COAST.
THERE IS A CONVERGENT BAND OF CU IN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW WHICH REMAINS LESS THAN 10 KT QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR WATERSPOUT
FORMATION. FOR THIS REASON, WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO.
30/KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009/
AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS ALL TERMINALS BECOME ESE-SE 10KTS OR LESS ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. SCT CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
3000-4000FT LAYER TODAY BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN. SEA BREEZE WILL SHIFT WINDS TO SW AT KAPF
AROUND 16Z...LINGERING UNTIL EARLY EVENING. LIGHT ESE-SE WINDS
RESUME AFTER SUNSET AT ALL TERMINALS...GOING NEARLY CALM LATE AT
NIGHT AT KAPF AND INLAND EAST COAST TERMINALS.
GS/DD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...LOW/MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SW TO THE GULF OF MEX THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. NEW MDLS RUNS ONCE AGAIN
INDICATE THE SRN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE ERN U.S. AND ERODING THE RIDGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. IN FACT, GFS SHOWS A WEAK
FRONT-LIKE FEATURE COMING AS FAR SOUTH TO CENTRAL IN RESPONSE TO A
LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER ERN U.S. TUE NIGHT/WED.
HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES DIFFUSE AS THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER TROUGH LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST. TILL THEN, THOUGH, A MOSTLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE E/SE FLOW REGIME WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. LOCAL EFFECTS SUCH AS SEA/LAKE BREEZES CONVERGENCE,
DIURNAL HEATING AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST INTERIOR AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE PENETRATES
INLAND AND CONVERGES WITH THE PREVAILING E/SE FLOW.
HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES (90+) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS WITH MAX REACHING THE MID 90S FROM THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THE
TEMPS KEEPING THEM IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG, BOTH, WESTERN
AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS.
MARINE...A GENTLE TO MODERATE MOSTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
(AOB 15 KTS) SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SEAS MOSTLY
AT 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PACKAGE.
FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER AGAIN TODAY ACROSS
GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES AS TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE U 50S TO AROUND 60 TO RESULT IN RH
VALUES FALLING BELOW 35 FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS. THEREFORE, A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES. RH VALUES COULD
FALL TO NEAR 35% ACROSS OTHER AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA BUT DURATION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE PERSISTENT
SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS GRADUALLY CLIMBING UP THROUGH
THE THE WEEKEND, WITH MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS FROM FRIDAY ON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 73 86 72 / - - - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 74 86 74 / - - - -
MIAMI 87 75 88 75 / - - - -
NAPLES 88 69 88 70 / - - - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KMLB 071348
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
948 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE HAS THE MAIN TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WITH THE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SOUTHERN EXTENSION MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
THIS MORNING HAVE PW VALUES COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY AT AROUND
1.2-1.3 INCHES MOST OF IT LOCATED BELOW 750MB.
FLOW ALOFT HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE S-SW...WHICH WILL DELAY THE EAST
COAST SEABREEZE UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS...THE
SEABREEZE COLLISION IS EXPECTED TO BE FURTHER EAST THAN
YESTERDAY...FROM NW VOLUSIA TO SOUTHWEST OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE VICINITY OF THE TROF MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE TODAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THE
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNSET.
LATE ONSET SEABREEZE AND S-SW FLOW WILL BRING TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID
90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPE.
THE MORNING FCST PACKAGE LOOKS FINE...NO PLANS TO UPDATE THIS
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THRU 07/18Z.
BTWN 07/18Z-08/02Z OCNL CIGS AOA FL040 W OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...ISOLD MVFR SHRAS/TSRAS ASSOCD WITH A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
COLLISION ALONG A LINE FROM KDAB TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. VFR ALL SITES
AFT 08/03Z.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HIGHLIGHTS...NO SIG CHANGES. RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA WILL GENERATE A LIGHT TO MODERATE SRLY BREEZE WITH SEAS
2-3FT NEARSHORE...AOB 4FT OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE OFF THE
COAST LATER THIS EVENING AFTER THE SEABREEZE COLLISION OCCURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TYPICALLY MEAN HIGHER TEMPS
INTERIOR AND COASTAL VOLUSIA..LOW/MID 90S FOR TODAY... AND WITH THE
INTERIOR DEW POINTS ALREADY IN THE MID 60S... ANY DOWNWARD MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE DEW
POINTS TO DROP EVEN LOWER...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A RED FLAG DUE TO
DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SOUTHERN LAKE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
MOSES
000
FXUS62 KJAX 071342
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
942 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
...HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
.PUBLIC UPDATE...AS ALLUDED IN THE MORNING DISCUSSION...TODAY WILL
BE ANOTHER VERY WARM TO HOT DAY WITH AFTERNOON READINGS INTO THE
LOWER 90S COMMON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 12Z KJAX SOUNDING
CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS RESIDING BELOW 500
MB...WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER OUR
GEORGIA ZONES WHERE SUBSIDENCE/DOWNWARD MOTION WILL BE WEAKER COUPLED
WITH ONGIONG ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST. ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES AS THE SEA-BREEZE COLLISION WILL LIKELY FOCUS ACROSS
THIS AREA.
THE COMBINATION OF COOLING ALOFT COUPLED WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT
BELOW 10 KFT WOULD SUGGEST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HAIL DEVELOPMENT
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT THIS WILL ALSO BE COUNTERED BY WIND
SPEEDS BELOW 30 KNOT IN THE HAIL GROWTH REGION. THUS...ANTICIPATE
MORE SMALL /I.E., PEA-SIZE/ HAIL. WITH AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE
/I.E., PRECIP WATER AT OR BELOW 1.25 INCHES/...WILL ALSO NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR FOR DRY MICRO-BURSTS WITH WIND SPEEDS NEARING 50 MPH.
OVERALL...FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLD SHRA/TS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN...AND WILL LIKELY INCLUDE VCTS WORDING FOR THE
COASTAL TAF SITES FROM AROUND 20Z-00Z WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS SEA-
BREEZE COLLISION WILL FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF JAX CWA.
&&
.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. PERSISTENT S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THRU THE WATERS LATE
MONDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO NE BY TUE MORNING.
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
.PREVIOUS PUBLIC...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN STORY. MOST OF THE AREA WILL TOP OUT AROUND 90 AGAIN
TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY SEABREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION DUE TO
STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT THE FORECAST THERE IS A BIT TRICKY.
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AVAILABLE THERE TODAY...BUT BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE POTENTIAL CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 600MB. THIS CAP MAY HOLD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE SUCCUMBING TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. EVEN
SO...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPS WARMING TO 18C. TEMPS WILL THUS EASILY WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S. BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LATE DAY
SEABREEZE DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. LOW POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED
ALONG THE COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
BY SATURDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY BE SUBSTANTIAL
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ENTIRE AREA RAIN-FREE.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THIS PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A HOT AND DRY START. THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING SO LOW POPS SEEM REASONABLE
AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE NOW SUPPORTING A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND
THIS FRONT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUS HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES...MORE IN LINE WITH MEX GUIDANCE...LOW TO MID 80S.
&&
$$
ECZ
000
FXUS62 KTAE 071324
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
924 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A SMALL...SOMEWHAT RAGGED MCS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND
CENTRAL GA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND RECENT TRENDS AND CORFIDI
VECTORS INDICATE IT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST AL AND
SOUTHWEST GA COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THERE WAS
NO OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC SCALE BOUNDARY WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT LOCAL
VAD WIND PROFILES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A MESOSCALE
CONVERGENCE ZONE...AND VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
DRYING OVER NORTHERN AL AND NORTHERN MS...PERHAPS INDICATIVE OF A
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT. WE RAISED THE POP AND QPF FOR OUR GA AND AL
ZONES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SREF/GFS MOS POP.
CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...AS THE
0-6 KM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE 30 TO 40 KT AND THE SBCAPE WILL
BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE BETWEEN 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS (50 KT) ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RATHER
STEEP THETA-E LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB. PENNY SIZE
HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE FORECAST CAPE PROFILE FOR KDHN
(BASED ON THE RUC) IS TALL AND SKINNY. A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT ALONG THE BOOKENDS OF ANY BOWING SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME BACK-BUILDING TO THIS MCS...SO HEAVY RAIN IS A
BIT OF A CONCERN AS WELL. CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN FL DUE TO A DRIER...MORE STABLE
TROPOSPHERE AND BEING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE MESOSCALE FORCING.
&&
.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION OVER ERN AL/WRN GA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SE ABOUT 15 KT INTO PORTIONS OF SE AL/SW GA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE TSRA AT KDHN AND KABY THROUGH
20Z. FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION WILL BE TO ISOLD TO MENTION IN
TAFS...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE BASED ON THE PROGRESS OF THE CONVECTION
TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...S TO SW WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WHEN MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO FADE. THEN EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE
OF LOW CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 89 65 93 64 92 / 20 10 10 0 10
PANAMA CITY 83 70 85 70 85 / 20 10 10 0 10
DOTHAN 86 67 91 67 92 / 50 20 10 0 10
ALBANY 88 68 93 67 92 / 60 20 10 0 10
VALDOSTA 89 64 92 64 92 / 30 10 10 0 10
CROSS CITY 87 63 92 63 91 / 10 10 10 0 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...JAMSKI
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER
000
FXUS62 KTBW 071225
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
825 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOC WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE ARE MOVING ACROSS THE PENINSULA ATTM. OTHERWISE...TODAYS
WEATHER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM WHAT WE`VE HAD THE PAST
FEW DAYS...FEATURING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
THAT WILL PUSH WELL INLAND AND MAY SPARK A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OR
TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY FROM THE MID 80S NEAR THE
BEACHES TO LOW 90S INLAND. NO SIGNIF CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.AVIATION (07/12Z - 08/12Z)...VFR. PREVAILING CIRRUS WITH SOME
CUMULUS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS 7-9KT THIS
MORNING...SW 9-11KT IN THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING AND MOSTLY WEST
AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS ATTM...WITH LITTLE
CHANGE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO HEADLINES.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-POLK.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
NP/RKR
000
FXUS62 KMFL 071145
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
745 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS ALL TERMINALS BECOME ESE-SE 10KTS OR LESS ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. SCT CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
3000-4000FT LAYER TODAY BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN. SEA BREEZE WILL SHIFT WINDS TO SW AT KAPF
AROUND 16Z...LINGERING UNTIL EARLY EVENING. LIGHT ESE-SE WINDS
RESUME AFTER SUNSET AT ALL TERMINALS...GOING NEARLY CALM LATE AT
NIGHT AT KAPF AND INLAND EAST COAST TERMINALS.
GS/DD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...LOW/MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SW TO THE GULF OF MEX THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. NEW MDLS RUNS ONCE AGAIN
INDICATE THE SRN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE ERN U.S. AND ERODING THE RIDGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. IN FACT, GFS SHOWS A WEAK
FRONT-LIKE FEATURE COMING AS FAR SOUTH TO CENTRAL IN RESPONSE TO A
LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER ERN U.S. TUE NIGHT/WED.
HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES DIFFUSE AS THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER TROUGH LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST. TILL THEN, THOUGH, A MOSTLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE E/SE FLOW REGIME WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. LOCAL EFFECTS SUCH AS SEA/LAKE BREEZES CONVERGENCE,
DIURNAL HEATING AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST INTERIOR AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE PENETRATES
INLAND AND CONVERGES WITH THE PREVAILING E/SE FLOW.
HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES (90+) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS WITH MAX REACHING THE MID 90S FROM THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THE
TEMPS KEEPING THEM IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG, BOTH, WESTERN
AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS.
MARINE...A GENTLE TO MODERATE MOSTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
(AOB 15 KTS) SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SEAS MOSTLY
AT 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PACKAGE.
FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER AGAIN TODAY ACROSS
GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES AS TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE U 50S TO AROUND 60 TO RESULT IN RH
VALUES FALLING BELOW 35 FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS. THEREFORE, A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES. RH VALUES COULD
FALL TO NEAR 35% ACROSS OTHER AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA BUT DURATION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE PERSISTENT
SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS GRADUALLY CLIMBING UP THROUGH
THE THE WEEKEND, WITH MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS FROM FRIDAY ON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 73 86 72 / - - - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 74 86 74 / - - - -
MIAMI 87 75 88 75 / - - - -
NAPLES 88 69 88 70 / - - - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...30/KOB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD
000
FXUS62 KMLB 070902
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
502 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
TODAY-TONIGHT...
IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH
AND VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS S GA/N FL/NE GULF AND TOWARD CENTRAL FL
THE NEXT 12 OR SO HOURS. 07/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS WERE INDICATING
THAT THE LAYER PRECIP WATER WAS BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES OVER FL AND
S GA. GFS SHOWING A THIN RIBBON OF MOISTURE BENEATH THE VORT MAX AS
IT MOVES W TO E ACROSS THE PENINSULA. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LYING OVER
THE CENTER PART OF THE STATE WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO FORM ON EACH
COAST AND SLOWLY PUSH INLAND. GFS AND LOCAL WRF SHOWING A COLLISION
OF THE BOUNDARIES FROM NW VOLUSIA TO SOUTHWEST OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS MAYBE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
LIGHTNING STORM OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS
THE VORT MAX LIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
HELPING TO STABILIZE THE LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS IT USUALLY IS WITH THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW.
FRI-SUN...LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FCST TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS
SOUTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA PRODUCING A SYNOPTIC S/SW FLOW TURNING
ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SEA BREEZES. RIDGING ALSO BUILDS
ALOFT PRODUCING WARMER MORE STABLE TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS.
ALTHOUGH A SEA BREEZE COLLISION WILL OCCUR EACH EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
INCREASINGLY SUPPRESSED ATMOS. MAX TEMPS LOW-MID 90S INTERIOR...
AROUND 90 VOLUSIA COAST...AND UPPER 80S SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
MON-WED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVES CARVING OUT A DEEPER UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS MONDAY WHICH IS FCST TO BREAK
DOWN THE PERSISTENT ATLC RIDGE ACROSS FL. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR NORTH TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND
CROSS THE AREA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AROUND TUE. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIRMASS WILL BRING MAX TEMPS DOWN RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE
(UPPER 80S INTERIOR/MID 80S COAST). HAVE KEPT TUE DRY FOR NOW BUT
DEPENDING ON TIMING MAY NEED TO ADD A SMALL POP ESP NORTH HALF
FOR AFTN CONVECTION ALG/AHEAD OF FRONT.
THERE SHOULD BE A SUFFICIENT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH
FRONTAL BAND TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE OF ATLC SHOWERS
WITH THE SURGE OF E/NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY IN DEEPENING ONSHORE FLOW.
THINK CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION (THUNDER) WILL BE FOCUSED ON
WEST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA.
&&
.AVIATION...
COASTAL TAF SITES...VFR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS OF VFR
CEILINGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND REMAIN 15
KNOTS OR LESS AS SURFACE HIGH IS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST BY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS
AND LAND WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO FORM ALONG BOTH COASTS GIVING AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND UNTIL THE SEA BREEZE SHUTS DOWN FOR
ANOTHER DAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
FRI-MON...LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNING ONSHORE
EACH AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. PRIMARY CONTRIBUTION TO WAVE
HEIGHT WILL BE A 3-4 FT EAST SWELL WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATE
THE RIP CURRENT THREAT AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF AN EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TYPICALLY
MEAN HIGHER TEMPS INTERIOR AND COASTAL VOLUSIA..LOW/MID 90S FOR
TODAY... AND WITH THE INTERIOR DEW POINTS ALREADY IN THE MID 60S...
ANY DOWNWARD MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE DEW POINTS TO DROP EVEN LOWER...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A RED FLAG DUE TO DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES.
FRI-SUN...CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDS SHOULD
PRODUCE AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS OF CRITICAL RH OVER PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES AT THIS
TIME BUT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE REASSESSED EACH DAY FOR
POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 90 67 90 67 / 20 20 10 10
MCO 90 67 92 68 / 20 10 10 10
MLB 88 67 87 67 / 20 20 10 10
VRB 87 66 88 67 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SOUTHERN LAKE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY
000
FXUS62 KJAX 070802
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
402 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
...HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY. MOST OF THE AREA
WILL TOP OUT AROUND 90 AGAIN TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
SEABREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION DUE TO STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION
ALOFT. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL EXIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...BUT THE FORECAST THERE IS A BIT TRICKY. MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AVAILABLE THERE TODAY...BUT BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
POTENTIAL CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 600MB. THIS CAP MAY HOLD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE SUCCUMBING TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. EVEN
SO...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPS WARMING TO 18C. TEMPS WILL THUS EASILY WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S. BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LATE DAY
SEABREEZE DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. LOW POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED
ALONG THE COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
BY SATURDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY BE SUBSTANTIAL
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ENTIRE AREA RAIN-FREE.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THIS PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A HOT AND DRY START. THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING SO LOW POPS SEEM REASONABLE
AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE NOW SUPPORTING A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND
THIS FRONT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUS HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES...MORE IN LINE WITH MEX GUIDANCE...LOW TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA/TS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN. HAVE ADDED CB
TO SKY CONDS AND VCSH AFTER 20Z FOR TAF SITES EXCEPT GNV. EXPECT
PREVAILING VFR CONDS.
&&
.MARINE...PERSISTENT S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THRU THE WATERS LATE MONDAY
SHIFTING WINDS TO NE BY TUE MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 89 66 91 66 / 30 20 10 10
SSI 85 70 87 70 / 20 10 20 10
JAX 90 67 92 67 / 20 10 20 10
SGJ 87 69 88 70 / 10 10 20 20
GNV 90 64 92 66 / 10 10 10 10
OCF 91 64 92 65 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHULER/TRABERT
000
FXUS62 KMFL 070755
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
355 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...LOW/MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SW TO THE GULF OF MEX THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. NEW MDLS RUNS ONCE AGAIN INDICATE
THE SRN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE ERN
U.S. AND ERODING THE RIDGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. IN FACT, GFS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT-LIKE
FEATURE COMING AS FAR SOUTH TO CENTRAL IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
AMPLITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER ERN U.S. TUE NIGHT/WED. HOWEVER,
THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES DIFFUSE AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST. TILL THEN, THOUGH, A MOSTLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE E/SE FLOW REGIME WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. LOCAL EFFECTS SUCH AS SEA/LAKE BREEZES CONVERGENCE,
DIURNAL HEATING AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST INTERIOR AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE PENETRATES
INLAND AND CONVERGES WITH THE PREVAILING E/SE FLOW.
HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES (90+) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS WITH MAX REACHING THE MID 90S FROM THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
THE TEMPS KEEPING THEM IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG, BOTH,
WESTERN AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS.
&&
.MARINE...A GENTLE TO MODERATE MOSTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
(AOB 15 KTS) SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SEAS MOSTLY AT
2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER AGAIN TODAY ACROSS
GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES AS TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE U 50S TO AROUND 60 TO RESULT IN RH
VALUES FALLING BELOW 35 FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS. THEREFORE, A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES. RH VALUES COULD
FALL TO NEAR 35% ACROSS OTHER AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA BUT DURATION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE PERSISTENT SE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS GRADUALLY CLIMBING UP THROUGH THE
THE WEEKEND, WITH MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS FROM FRIDAY ON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 73 86 72 / - - - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 74 86 74 / - - - -
MIAMI 87 75 88 75 / - - - -
NAPLES 88 69 88 70 / - - - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM/MARINE/FIRE...47/RGH
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...65/GS
000
FXUS62 KKEY 070747
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
347 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WE FIND DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN SEA. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE TREKKING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN STATES FROM NORTH GA TO KY...AND A UPPER LOW IS LIFTING
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE WE FIND THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RESIDING ACROSS SOUTH FL.
AS A RESULT OF THIS THE GRADIENT WINDS HAVE RELAXED WITH NEAR 10
KNOTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT THE CMAN SITES.
UPPER AIR DATA INDICATES THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY WITH PWATS BELOW 1
INCH. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN
WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
OTHER THAN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY
TO THE NORTH...EXPECT THE LITTLE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP THE PWATS AROUND AN INCH THROUGH FRIDAY. DIME
POPS SEEM REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF MESO
SCALE INTERACTIONS FROM THE MAINLAND AND/OR CUBA.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING CONTINUES THROUGH THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.
THEREAFTER A DEVELOPING LOW OF THE DELMARVA COAST IS FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY A STRONG RIDGE. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.THE
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT HAVE KEPT THE STATUS QUO WITH THE
CAVEAT THAT ALONG WITH THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS. THE MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ARE SHOWING ADEQUATE
LIFTING AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE LATE WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING A BIT TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO ANY SHOWERS LATE IN THE FORECAST WILL BE
WELCOME.
&&
.MARINE...
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 500MB IS THE MAJOR
PLAYER IN THE MARINE FORECAST. EXPECT THE WINDS TO RELAX A BIT MORE
TODAY AND TONIGHT TO GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ACROSS ALL KEYS
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER FRIDAY
EXPECT CLOUD LINES AND SHOWERS THROUGH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OFF THE
MAINLAND AND CUBA. OTHERWISE...THE WATERS WILL LAY DOWN MORE THAN
THEY HAVE IN SOMETIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AROUND FL020 WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KEY WEST DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...
AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THAT. THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME CLOUD STREAMERS OFF THE
KEYS AGAIN LATER TODAY...BUT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW THESE SHOULD NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1903...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN KEY WEST WAS 76 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR COLD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MAY 7TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 106 YEARS LATER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 85 76 85 76 / - - - 10
MARATHON 87 76 87 76 / - - - 10
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....JACOBSON
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KTBW 070558
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
158 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WILL HELP TO SPREAD AN INCREASED
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR
TWO LOWER DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...WHILE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH THAT A SUBSTANTIAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT...THAT WHEN LIFTED
BY THE SEA BREEZE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR...WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS A RIDGE HOVERING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALOFT AND REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. DESPITE OF HAVING SEVERAL
FRONTAL EVENTS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...THE DEEP-LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH BLOCKING TO KEEP THOSE SYSTEMS
TO OUR NORTH. ONLY POTENTIAL SOURCE FOR VERY ISOLATED RAIN ACTIVITY
WILL BE WITH SEA BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BUT SO
FAR POPS REMAIN AT 20 PERCENT AT BEST...AND MAINLY WELL INLAND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
AROUND 90 OVER INTERIOR AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...CIGS MAY DROP INTO MVFR LEVELS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AROUND 2500-4000 FEET...THEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY EARLY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET SEAS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...FOUR OR MORE HOURS OF CRITICAL RH WILL BE LIKELY
OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES FROM POLK SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG HEATING WILL HELP TO MIX LOWER DEWPOINTS TO THE SURFACE
AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 86 70 87 72 / 10 0 10 10
FMY 91 71 89 72 / 20 0 5 10
GIF 91 70 90 71 / 20 10 20 10
SRQ 86 70 84 73 / 10 0 10 10
BKV 87 65 87 68 / 20 0 10 10
SPG 85 74 85 74 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-POLK.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CANTIN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...22/REYNES
000
FXUS62 KTAE 070554
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
154 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...03 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE VIRGINIA
TIDEWATER. RADAR DATA THIS MORNING SHOWS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
COME TO AN END IN OUR REGION. STILL SEEING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MOVE OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY`S
CONVECTION.
500 MB ANALYSIS AND VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY TOUCHING OFF
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THE 00
UTC KTAE SOUNDING SHOWED THE AIRMASS HAD DRIED OUT A LITTLE WITH A
PWAT DOWN TO 1.33 INCHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY).
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN AL/GA THIS MORNING AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE INITIAL SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL MISS. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS AREA OF STORMS WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD ONCE AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND MOVE
CLOSER TOWARD OUR REGION IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EMANATING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY INTERACT WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM WEDNESDAY`S CONVECTION
TO LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
ARRIVES. THE ADDED INFLUENCE OF A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...WE ARE MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. SURFACE-BASED PARCELS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA OF
87/65 SHOULD YIELD SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 1250 J/KG AND 1750 J/KG OF
SBCAPE. THERE IS SOME SLIGHT WARMING NOTED IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT CONVECTION. WHILE IT
WILL BE WARMER A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN FLA...IT SHOULD BE A TOUCH
DRIER AT THE SURFACE UNTIL THE SEA BREEZE ARRIVES. A SURFACE PARCEL
OF 89/62 ONLY YIELDS BETWEEN 500 J/KG TO 750 J/KG SBCAPE. CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WILL BE EVEN LESS THE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE WARMING EVIDENT IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE SET UP POPS ACROSS OUR REGION IN A
NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT WITH 40 POPS IN THE NORTH DOWN TO 10 IN THE
SOUTHEAST. WITH MODEST SBCAPES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEARING 30 KNOTS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...SOME STORMS COULD
BE STRONG...AND IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING IF A COUPLE OF STORMS
REACHED SEVERE LIMITS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...SPC HAS INCLUDED A
PORTION OF AREA...MAINLY SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND AREAS IN GEORGIA
NORTH OF US-84...IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
THURSDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL ON THURSDAY WILL STAND A
GOOD POTENTIAL OF SEEING PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. WILL INCLUDE THIS IN
THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
FRIDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS KEEPS THE PARADE OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE UPPER
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY. WITH PWATS REMAINING IN THE 1.2 TO 1.4 RANGE
ON FRIDAY IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR STORMS IN A LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
(DUE TO MID LEVEL WARMING) TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST...BUT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. THE RECORD HIGH FOR TLH ON
FRIDAY IS 95 SET IN 1949. DO NOT EXPECT TO THREATEN THE RECORD HERE
OR ELSEWHERE AROUND THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...CONTINUED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY. NAM MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PRESENT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT 800 MB...AND THIS WILL SERVE TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION TO THE POINT THAT ONLY A FEW FLAT FAIR WEATHER
CU ARE EXPECTED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY
AGAIN WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S...PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE MID 90S
ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. THE RECORD AT TLH FOR THIS DAY IS 95 SET
IN 2002.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY).
FLAT RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE BEST FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE FOR
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE RIDGE OVER
THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MONDAY AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL SERVE TO NUDGE THE
QUASI-STATIONARY SFC FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA...LEADING TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER POPS. WILL ALSO SEE COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WITH THE RESULTANT
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW PUSHING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAS DIED OFF WITH
BACK EDGE OF HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
CLEARING BEHIND THIS BAND...WILL SEE SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP AT
PFN AND DHN OVERNIGHT. ATTM...NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH
VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.MARINE...OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE
MARINE AREA WILL REMAIN LOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DESPITE WARMING TEMPERATURES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL ENOUGH OVER NEXT FEW DAYS TO KEEP RH LEVELS
ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA. EXCEPTION MAY BE THE EASTERN BIG BEND BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT FOR 4 HOURS OF SUB
35 PERCENT HUMIDITY. CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO WARRANT A
WATCH THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 90 65 93 64 92 / 20 10 05 0 05
PANAMA CITY 85 70 85 70 85 / 20 10 05 0 05
DOTHAN 88 67 91 67 92 / 40 20 05 0 05
ALBANY 88 68 93 67 92 / 40 20 10 0 05
VALDOSTA 90 64 92 64 92 / 20 10 10 0 05
CROSS CITY 89 63 92 63 91 / 10 10 05 0 05
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
REST OF DISCUSSION...GODSEY
000
FXUS62 KMFL 070523
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
123 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.AVIATION...
THICK CIRRUS CANOPY WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD SOUTH FL OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY. DRAINAGE FLOW MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AT EAST
COAST TERMINALS SO WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARDS
SUNRISE. ESE WINDS 12KTS OR LESS ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY WITH
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE PROVIDING A SHIFT TO SW AT KAPF BETWEEN
16-17Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ESE AGAIN THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET.
/STRASSBERG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009/
W/E COAST SEA BREEZES AGAIN COLLIDED OVER THE INTERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS POPPED UP ONLY TO
RAPIDLY DIMINISH. A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT MOVING OVER S FLA ALLOWED
SHOWERS TO PERSIST...MAINLY OVER COLLIER COUNTY...LAST NIGHT WITH
0.94, 0.72 AND 0.18 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING AT MILES CITY, PANTHER
WEST AND PANTHER EAST (3 REMOTE AREA WEATHER STATIONS IN AND NEAR
THE DEEP FIRE SITE. WITH CALM WINDS AND NEARLY CLEAR SKIES, SOME
PATCHY FOG CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR OF S FLA BUT SMOKE
MAY BE LESS OF AN ADDITIONAL RESTRICTION OF VISIBILITY AS THE RAIN
FALL FELL ON THE FIRE AREA. CHANCES OF RAIN HAVE BECOME NIL AND
UPDATED ZFP PACKAGE WILL REFLECT THIS TREND.
IN THE MARINE ZONES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE MAINLAND. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ONSHORE PERIODICALLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW REGIME...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR ZONES...WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG INLAND
MOVING GULF COAST SEA BREEZE. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN POSITIONED BENEATH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM A LARGE MID-
TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...WITH LANDMASS COOLING ALLOWING AN OFFSHORE BREEZE
TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS OVERNIGHT...AND PATCHY FOG (AND
SMOKE) POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR DURING A BRIEF PERIOD FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK MID-LEVEL
VORT MAX WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE ALOFT. HOWEVER...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN AVAILABILITY OF
MOISTURE...WILL MAINTAIN POP AT 10 PERCENT. ANY INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY BRIEF...AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD RESTRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA FROM
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WILL MAINTAIN A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST...WITH MAV/MET NUMBERS CLOSE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S BOTH THURSDAY/FRIDAY AFTERNOONS OVER THE INTERIOR...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S EXPECTED ALONG
BOTH COASTS AT NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE VERY LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE TO THE STAGNANT BUT BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THAT
HAS BEEN IN PLACE RECENTLY...AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THE PATTERN MAY SHIFT SUBTLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A BROAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION ERODES THIS RIDGE TO THE POINT THAT IT
BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD...WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SLIGHTLY ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
PERIODICALLY FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE ANYTHING GREATER THAN A 10
POP IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. RIDGE ALOFT WILL LIKELY EXPAND
BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONGER UPPER VORT MAX MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OVERALL...WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
MARINE...
NO MARINE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 8-12 KNOTS PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE A LIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT IN
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH LAND BREEZE.
REGARDLESS...EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN 2-3 FEET AT MOST IN THIS
REGIME...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PERSISTING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
FIRE WEATHER...
RFW CONTINUES FOR GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
ISSUE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY...AS SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER
90S DURING THE AFTERNOONS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING OF DRY AIR
ALOFT...AND FUTURE RFWS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS
ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...NO CONCERNS
FOR REMAINDER OF FIRE WEATHER ZONES...WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFELY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 68 85 72 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 73 87 74 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 88 72 88 73 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 87 68 87 70 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...15/JR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...54/BNB
000
FXUS62 KTAE 070203
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1000 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
02Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING AN UPPER AIR PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTING OF NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND PLAINS STATES...AND GENERAL LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO THE EAST OF
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ONE FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND DOWN
INTO AL/GA. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS ABLE TO GIVE SOME SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
FOR THE CONVECTION THAT MOVED INTO OUR SE AL/SW GA ZONES THIS
EVENING. THIS CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST TWO
HOUR WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE DEEP
PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE.
AT THE SURFACE...FORECAST AREA REMAINS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEYS. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS
WARM AND MOIST IN NATURE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
&&
.UPDATE (OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY)...
EARLIER SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MARCHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF SW GEORGIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH JUST A
FEW LIGHTER SHOWERS PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG REDEVELOPING.
SUMMER LIKE DAY ON TAP FOR THURSDAY WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING
WELL TO OUR NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE BEST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL BE MOVING
EAST TO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RE-IGNITE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AL/GA/AND POSSIBLY INTO FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE AL AND GA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MUCH LIKE WEDNESDAY...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL TAKE PLACE TO THE NORTH OF
OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL AL/GA. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS WILL BE
SETTLING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND DO EXPECT AT LEAST SCT ACTIVITY TO
REACH AREA FROM DOTHAN TO ALBANY AND TIFTON. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
STRONG AS WELL WITH BUFKIT SOUNDING ACROSS THIS AREA FORECASTING
1500-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GET A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ESTABLISHED. ISOLATED HAIL IS
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY ALONG WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO
PRECIPITATION LOADING OF THE STRONGEST STORMS.
HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO AROUND 40% DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LEAVE POPS AROUND 20% FURTHER SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR) AS STABILIZING
MARITIME AIR MOVES RAPIDLY INLAND WITH THE SEA-BREEZE DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. SCT ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BUT FADE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 8-10 PM WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
&&
.AVIATION...
LINE OF CONVECTION ROLLED ACROSS SE ALA AND SW GA DURING WED
EVE...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN BRIEF TSTM AT KDHN. BY 8 PM
EDT...CONVECTION/GUSTY WINDS WANING AND STORMS HAS WEAKENED AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT...LOOKING FOR
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT PFN...TLH AND VLD WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR AT THE LATTER TWO TERMINALS. TLH IS PROGGED TO HAVE A PERIOD OF
IFR ONCE AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CIGS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THU WITH VFR EXPECTED THRU AFTN
AND INTO EVE.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS AND CHOPPIEST SEAS NEAR THE COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 66 88 67 90 65 / 10 20 10 0 10
PANAMA CITY 71 82 71 83 70 / 10 20 10 0 10
DOTHAN 69 87 68 91 67 / 70 40 10 10 10
ALBANY 68 88 68 91 64 / 60 40 10 10 10
VALDOSTA 66 89 66 91 64 / 10 30 10 10 10
CROSS CITY 66 87 66 90 64 / 10 10 10 0 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/UPDATE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...BLOCK
000
FXUS62 KJAX 070140
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
940 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
.UPDATE...ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION BROKE OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG E COAST SEA BREEZES...OUTFLOWS AND RIVER/LAKE BREEZES.
CONVECTION IS NOW PROPAGATING NEAR AND OFF THE COAST. SOME STORMS
BECAME FAIRLY STRONG BUT APPEARED TO STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH THE REST OF THE TONIGHT AND LOSS
OF HEATING...CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WITHIN A
A COUPLE OF HRS. HOWEVER...STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NRN ZONES LATER TONIGHT AS RADAR SHOWS AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SE FROM MCS OVER SRN GA. WHAT IS CURRENTLY
LEFT OF THE MCS IS JUST A RAIN SHIELD FROM MARIANNA TO N OF MACON.
MAY LEAVE IN SOME POPS OVER SE GA AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT OTHERWISE WILL
JUST ADJUST POPS FOR THE UPDATE BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.AVIATION...SCATTERED STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS
THIS EVE (JAX...CRG...SSI) SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END BY 0230Z.
EXPECTING PREVAILING VFR REST OF THE NIGHT. MAY BE PATCHES OF
FOG WITH LOW CLOUDS AT GNV BETWEEN 08Z-12Z.
&&
.MARINE...SCATTERED STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE THIS EVE MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CONCERNS. WINDS SOUTH 15 KNOTS
AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 64 88 65 91 / 20 30 20 10
SSI 68 85 69 87 / 10 20 10 10
JAX 66 89 66 91 / 20 20 10 10
SGJ 68 87 68 88 / 10 10 10 10
GNV 64 91 63 92 / 10 10 10 10
OCF 64 91 63 92 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/PETERSON/KEEGAN
000
FXUS62 KKEY 070119
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
930 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AT THE 500-200 MB
LEVEL...LATEST AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS AS OF 900 PM DEPICT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
WISCONSIN DOWN TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. DOWNSTREAM OF
THAT...A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE IS POSITIONED
FROM 35N 70W SOUTHWEST TO NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS. IN THE MIDDLE
LEVELS...A RATHER EXPANSIVE 700-500 RIDGE CONTINUES FROM MEXICO
EASTWARD TO ACROSS THE GULF TO SOUTH FLORIDA...THE KEYS...AND MOST
OF THE BAHAMAS...OR IN OTHER WORDS IN THE SAME RELATIVE LOCATION AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MANY DAYS. THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING
CONTINUED TO REFLECT THE EXTRAORDINARILY DRY AIR IN PLACE...WITH
TOTAL PWAT STILL AT .91 INCHES...EXACTLY WHERE IT WAS 24 HOURS
PRIOR.
IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID
WITH AVAILABLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 PM DETAIL
A SURFACE TO 850 RIDGE WHICH HAS MIGRATED FURTHER SOUTH THAN
YESTERDAY AND IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH THE SOUNDING NOW INDICATING ONLY A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY GENTLE EAST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO JUST ABOUT 3000
FEET AGL.
.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 PM...LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS
THAT ANOTHER EXCEEDINGLY OR UNSEASONABLY DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE
OVER THE ISLAND AND ADJOINING WATERS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUD DEBRIS IN
PLACE EXITING ANDROS ISLAND. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF ARE
REGISTERING MAINLY EAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...WITH ISLAND
SENSORS RECORDING EAST WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE
PRESENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. NO REAL
ECHOES ON RADAR.
&&
.FORECASTS...SHORT TERM...OVERNIGHT...IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NOT A LOT TO TALK ABOUT THIS EVENING SO WILL TRY OT MAKE IT
AS BRIEF AS I CAN. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT THIS WILL HAVE NO NET AFFECT ON
THE OVERNIGHT WX AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE LITTLE AND REMAIN
PARKED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO...NO CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL
BE MAINTAINED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST. CLIMATOLOGICALLY WE ARE
REALLY APPROACHING THE END OF ANY PERIODS WHERE NO RAIN WILL IMPACT
US...BUT WITH PWAT ONLY RISING TO 1.12 INCHES AROUND DAYBREAK...ANY
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF TILL THE NEXT VERIFICATION
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...ANOTHER MINOR WIND SURGE IS PRESENTLY IN PLACE THIS
EVENING...BUT WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN UP TOWARDS DAYBREAK LIKE LAST
NIGHT. BOTTOM LINE IS GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WITH NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED. LOOK OUT FOR SOME CLOUDLINES AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 12Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE ORIENTATION OF THIS RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WILL
HELP MAINTAIN A STEADY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND NEAR 10KT.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS..........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS............KASPER
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION...ROSS
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KMLB 070049
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
850 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS INDUCED BY LATE AFTN SEABREEZE COLLISION WERE FEW AND FAR
BTWN...CONFINED TO A COUPLE SMALL CELLS NR LAKES GEORGE AND APAOPKA
EARLY THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN QUITE WEAK AND WILL LKLY DSPT
BY AROUND 9PM. SKIES BCMG MNLY CLR BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SOME THIN
CI STREAMING OVHD. FCST IN FINE SHAPE...ONLY SIG CHG WILL BE TO
REMOVE MENTION OF EARLY EVENING POPS FOR THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...S-SE WINDS <15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT OVERNIGHT/THU.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
CRISTALDI
000
FXUS62 KTBW 070032
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
832 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED THERE WAS SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA FROM ABOUT INTERSTATE 4 SOUTH
TODAY WHICH PREVENTED THE SHOWERS FROM POPPING UP. FURTHER NORTH A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS DID POP UP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHED
INLAND...BUT ALSO LESS COVERAGE THAN THE LAST TWO DAYS. EAST AND
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISION HAS JUST RECENTLY OCCURRED IN A
SIMILAR LOCATION TO LAST NIGHT AS SEEN BY THE BAND OF CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST POLK COUNTY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY BORDER AND THEN INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
COULD STILL SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO ALONG THIS COLLISION IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS TOO MUCH...OTHERWISE
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOME HIGH LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
FOR THURSDAY THE MODELS SHOW DEEPEST MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM
AROUND DAYTONA BEACH SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH ORLANDO INTO OUR
INTERIOR COUNTIES AROUND WINTER HAVEN...SEBRING AND ARCADIA...AND
THEN INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AROUND PUNTA GORDA AND FORT MYERS.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THE OVERALL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE NATURE COAST WILL DRIVE THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WELL
INLAND...WHILE A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW INITIALLY FURTHER SOUTH
DELAYS THE SEA BREEZE SOME WITH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
COLLISION OCCURRING IN THIS BAND LATE IN THE DAY. OVERALL THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM REASONABLE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER INLAND AREAS. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES
WILL BE TO REMOVE THE 20 POPS FROM THIS EVENING OVER THE INLAND
AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION....SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...NO CHANGES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE RATHER LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A SHIFT TO ONSHORE WITH
THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. PRESENT MARINE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR LATE EVENING
FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 70 87 70 88 / 5 10 0 10
FMY 69 91 70 89 / 10 20 0 5
GIF 69 91 69 91 / 20 20 10 10
SRQ 70 86 69 84 / 5 10 0 10
BKV 64 88 64 88 / 10 20 0 10
SPG 74 86 74 86 / 5 10 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE...69/CLOSE
AVIATION...63/JILLSON
000
FXUS62 KMFL 062324 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
722 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
W/E COAST SEA BREEZES AGAIN COLLIDED OVER THE INTERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS POPPED UP ONLY TO
RAPIDLY DIMINISH. A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT MOVING OVER S FLA ALLOWED
SHOWERS TO PERSIST...MAINLY OVER COLLIER COUNTY...LAST NIGHT WITH
0.94, 0.72 AND 0.18 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING AT MILES CITY, PANTHER
WEST AND PANTHER EAST (3 REMOTE AREA WEATHER STATIONS IN AND NEAR
THE DEEP FIRE SITE. WITH CALM WINDS AND NEARLY CLEAR SKIES, SOME
PATCHY FOG CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR OF S FLA BUT SMOKE
MAY BE LESS OF AN ADDITIONAL RESTRICTION OF VISIBILITY AS THE RAIN
FALL FELL ON THE FIRE AREA. CHANCES OF RAIN HAVE BECOME NIL AND
UPDATED ZFP PACKAGE WILL REFLECT THIS TREND.
IN THE MARINE ZONES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE MAINLAND. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ONSHORE PERIODICALLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW REGIME...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR ZONES...WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG INLAND
MOVING GULF COAST SEA BREEZE. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN POSITIONED BENEATH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM A LARGE MID-
TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...WITH LANDMASS COOLING ALLOWING AN OFFSHORE BREEZE
TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS OVERNIGHT...AND PATCHY FOG (AND
SMOKE) POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR DURING A BRIEF PERIOD FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK MID-LEVEL
VORT MAX WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE ALOFT. HOWEVER...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN AVAILABILITY OF
MOISTURE...WILL MAINTAIN POP AT 10 PERCENT. ANY INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY BRIEF...AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD RESTRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA FROM
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WILL MAINTAIN A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST...WITH MAV/MET NUMBERS CLOSE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S BOTH THURSDAY/FRIDAY AFTERNOONS OVER THE INTERIOR...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S EXPECTED ALONG
BOTH COASTS AT NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE VERY LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE TO THE STAGNANT BUT BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THAT
HAS BEEN IN PLACE RECENTLY...AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THE PATTERN MAY SHIFT SUBTLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A BROAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION ERODES THIS RIDGE TO THE POINT THAT IT
BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD...WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SLIGHTLY ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
PERIODICALLY FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE ANYTHING GREATER THAN A 10
POP IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. RIDGE ALOFT WILL LIKELY EXPAND
BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONGER UPPER VORT MAX MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OVERALL...WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MARINE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 8-12 KNOTS PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE A LIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT IN
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH LAND BREEZE.
REGARDLESS...EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN 2-3 FEET AT MOST IN THIS
REGIME...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PERSISTING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RFW CONTINUES FOR GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
ISSUE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY...AS SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER
90S DURING THE AFTERNOONS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING OF DRY AIR
ALOFT...AND FUTURE RFWS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS
ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...NO CONCERNS
FOR REMAINDER OF FIRE WEATHER ZONES...WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFELY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 68 85 68 85 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 87 73 87 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 72 88 72 88 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 68 87 68 87 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...52/PS
000
FXUS62 KMFL 062318 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
718 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
.AVIATION...
THE WINDS AT THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL GO FROM SOUTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 3Z. ONLY KFLL
WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT THE EAST COAST TAF SITES.
KAPF TAF SITE WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TILL
AROUND 2Z TONIGHT...THEN SWING TO A NORTHEAST TO EAST DIRECTION
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FOR REST OF THE NIGHT HOURS. THE WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
THE CEILING AND VIS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE MAINLAND. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ONSHORE PERIODICALLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW REGIME...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR ZONES...WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG INLAND
MOVING GULF COAST SEA BREEZE. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN POSITIONED BENEATH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM A LARGE MID-
TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...WITH LANDMASS COOLING ALLOWING AN OFFSHORE BREEZE
TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS OVERNIGHT...AND PATCHY FOG (AND
SMOKE) POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR DURING A BRIEF PERIOD FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK MID-LEVEL
VORT MAX WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE ALOFT. HOWEVER...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN AVAILABILITY OF
MOISTURE...WILL MAINTAIN POP AT 10 PERCENT. ANY INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY BRIEF...AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD RESTRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA FROM
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WILL MAINTAIN A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST...WITH MAV/MET NUMBERS CLOSE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S BOTH THURSDAY/FRIDAY AFTERNOONS OVER THE INTERIOR...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S EXPECTED ALONG
BOTH COASTS AT NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE VERY LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE TO THE STAGNANT BUT BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THAT
HAS BEEN IN PLACE RECENTLY...AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THE PATTERN MAY SHIFT SUBTLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A BROAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION ERODES THIS RIDGE TO THE POINT THAT IT
BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD...WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SLIGHTLY ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
PERIODICALLY FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE ANYTHING GREATER THAN A 10
POP IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. RIDGE ALOFT WILL LIKELY EXPAND
BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONGER UPPER VORT MAX MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OVERALL...WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
MARINE...
NO MARINE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 8-12 KNOTS PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE A LIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT IN
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH LAND BREEZE.
REGARDLESS...EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN 2-3 FEET AT MOST IN THIS
REGIME...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PERSISTING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
FIRE WEATHER...
RFW CONTINUES FOR GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
ISSUE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY...AS SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER
90S DURING THE AFTERNOONS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING OF DRY AIR
ALOFT...AND FUTURE RFWS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS
ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...NO CONCERNS
FOR REMAINDER OF FIRE WEATHER ZONES...WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFELY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 68 85 68 85 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 87 73 87 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 72 88 72 88 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 68 87 68 87 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...52/PS
000
FXUS62 KTAE 062127 AAA
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
525 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
...UPDATE TO DISCUSS AN INCREASED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...
.UPDATE (THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT)...
HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE 50-70% RANGE TO THE NORTH OF A LINE
FROM AROUND KDHN TO KABY AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO
PROPOGATE SOUTHWARD SOUTHERN AL/GA. STORMS HAVE BEEN PULSING UP AND
DOWN QUICKLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. EXPECTING (AND ALREADY SEEING) SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF SE AL AND SW GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUSIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
MIXED LAYER CAPE INTO DHN AND KABY IS BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG WITH
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OF 2000+ J/KG. WITH THIS SUPPORTIVE
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT WOULD EXPECT A FEW OF THE STORMS TO CONTINUE
PERIODICALLY PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON ZONES TO THE SOUTH
OF DOTHAN (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN WALTON AND HOLMES COUNTIES) AS
CURRENT POPS MAY BE A BIT LOW. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
JUST HOW FAR THE CONTINUED PROPOGATION OF THE STORMS WILL EXTEND
THIS EVENING. ANY ZONES WEST AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND ALBANY
TO MARIANNA TO CRESTVIEW WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE TO THE
NORTHWEST AS WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS THIS EVENING.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...18Z REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT FROM SRN OK THROUGH AR...NRN AL AND GA INTO ERN NC. THIS
BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AR...HAS
BEEN THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY. THE REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SWRN END OF AN MCS OVER
NRN/CNTRL AL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRUSH NRN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF A DHN-ABY LINE. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. FURTHER TO THE S...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS DRIER WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH WILL
SUPPRESS SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVES OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS PUSHES EWD TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY...AND IS REPLACED BY ZONAL FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. THE STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE WWD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE INTO THE SERN
CONUS. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR AL/GA ZONES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
DUE TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND PASSING SHORT WAVES...WITH ISOLATED
POPS TO THE S. WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...PATCHY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP MOST AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT...MOST INLAND AREAS WILL SURPASS THE
90 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH A BIT WITH A FLAT
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP THE
QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY...DEEPEST MOISTURE...AND FORCING
TO THE NORTH AS WELL...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION
AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH 90 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ALONG WITH GUSTY S TO SW WINDS. IT APPEARS THAT THE
CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS AL IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SWD AND WE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR TS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AT KDHN. WE ARE GOING WITH THE GFS IDEA OF A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SWEEPING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD BE THE MCS CURRENTLY OVER MS AND FORECAST
CORFIDI VECTORS STEER IT INTO OUR ZONES. INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUPS
FOR DHN AND ABY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FURTHER S...LOOKING FOR MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KPFN...KTLH AND KVLD WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
AT THE LATTER TWO TERMINALS. KTLH IS PROGGED TO HAVE A PERIOD OF IFR
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CIGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS AND CHOPPIEST SEAS NEAR THE COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DESPITE INLAND AFTERNOON TEMPS AROUND 90 THE NEXT
FEW AFTERNOONS...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE RED
FLAG CRITERIA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 66 89 67 91 65 / 10 20 10 0 10
PANAMA CITY 71 84 71 84 70 / 10 20 10 0 10
DOTHAN 69 87 68 91 67 / 30 30 10 10 10
ALBANY 68 88 68 91 64 / 30 30 10 10 10
VALDOSTA 66 89 66 91 64 / 20 20 10 10 10
CROSS CITY 66 88 66 89 64 / 10 10 10 0 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...WOOL
LONG TERM...CAMP
REST OF DISCUSSION...JAMSKI
000
FXUS62 KMLB 061925
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
325 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
TONIGHT...
SEABREEZE COLLISION EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF
LINE BETWEEN LAKE GEORGE AND LAKE KISSIMMEE. AS THE AIRMASS BETWEEN
THE TO IS SQUEEZED...MOISTURE LVLS SHOULD BECOME CONCENTRATED
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHRAS/TSRAS TO DVLP WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE.
HOWEVER...WITH AN H85-H50 STEERING FLOW ~5KTS AND MID AFTN H100-H70
MEAN RH VALUES BLO 60%...COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN 20%. SKIES
CLEARING BY MIDNIGHT WITH SRLY WINDS KEEPING MIN TEMPS IN THE M/U60S
OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
THURSDAY...
STRONG H25 JET DIGGING DOWN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN THE
INTEGRITY OF A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE MID WEST/MS RIVER VALLEY. AS
THIS TROF PUSHES EAST...IT WILL ERODE THE RIDGE TO THE POINT WHERE
ITS WRN EXTENSION WILL SEPARATE INTO AN INDEPENDENT ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE GOMEX. THIS WOULD ALLOW A WRLY STEERING FLOW TO DVLP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA AS THE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD. THE
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO WORK
ITS WAY INTO THE PENINSULA AS WELL...RAISING THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY.
WRLY FLOW REGIMES USUALLY RESULT IN ABV NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE ERN
PENINSULA AS THEY DELAY FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND
LIMIT ITS INLAND MOVEMENT. WITH NEAR FULL SUN AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...THURSDAY WILL BE NO EXCEPTION AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE 90S
OVER MOST OF THE CWA. AFTN SEABREEZE COLLISION ZONE WILL SHIFT EAST
AS WELL...POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN VOLUSIA
COUNTY...AND AS FAR EAST AS THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE OVER
THE SRN CWA.
GIVEN THE WX ELEMENTS IN PLAY...THE GFS MODEL POPS WERE SURPRISINGLY
LOW. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
SHORT...BUT GIVEN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS (IN AN AIRMASS EVEN DRIER THAN WHAT
IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY)...SHRAS/TSRAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DVLP AS THE
SEABREEZE COLLISION OCCURS. WILL INTRODUCE POPS ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT WILL HOLD THEM AT 20% DUE TO THE LOW MOISTURE.
FRI-TUE...
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REASSERT ITSELF ON FRIDAY
OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSAGE. THE LIGHT
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH AFTERNOON...COLLIDING OVER THE INTERIOR
IN THE EARLY EVENINGS. ADDITIONAL SUPPRESSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLLISION BOUNDARY TO
MAINLY CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA...WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...WITH THE STRONGER FLOW NORTH OF THE CAPE.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DELAY THE SEABREEZE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
CAPE...ALLOWING COASTAL TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S SOUTH
AND INTO THE LOW 90S NORTH. ELSEWHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...LOW-MID 90S INTERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...
COASTAL TAF SITES...VFR THRU 07/14Z.
INTERIOR TAF SITES...THRU 07/02Z OCNL CIGS AOA FL040 W ISOLD MVFR
SHRAS/IFR TSRAS ALONG A LINE FROM LAKE GEORGE TO LAKE KISSIMMEE
ASSOCD WITH A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISION...BCMG VFR ALL SITES AFT
07/02Z.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
S/SW OVERNIGHT...THEN TO THE SW ON THU AS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS
INTO THE S FL PENINSULA. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOB 3FT NEARSHORE AND 4FT
OFFSHORE...THOUGH THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN
CHOPPY...SHORT PD SEAS.
FRI-SUN...SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PRODUCE A MORE
PRONOUNCED OFFSHORE FLOW..ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
TIMEFRAME...DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE. PRES GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 10-15 KNOTS. EAST SWELL 3-4 FEET WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTION TO WAVE HEIGHT WITH SOME SMALLER
CHOPPY WIND WAVES. RIP CURRENT THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SFC/XPRT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SW OVERNIGHT AS THE ATLC RIDGE
AXIS PUSHES INTO THE S FL PENINSULA. SEABREEZE COLLISION ZONE WILL
SHIFT INTO THE ERN PENINSULA ON THU AS WELL. WITH MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE L/M90S...CANNOT RULE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLD TSRAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM DAYTONA BEACH
TO OKEECHOBEE. GIVEN THE LACK OF RAINFALL... HIGH KDBI
INDICIES...AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...WILL HOIST A FIRE
WX WATCH FOR THU AFTN DESPITE PREDICTED RH VALUES ABV 35%.
HOT AND DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE POSSIBILITY FOR
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
WEAK SWRLY FLOW DEVELOPING...RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DROP TO
CRITICAL LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE REASSESSED EACH DAY FOR
POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 68 90 66 90 / 20 20 20 10
MCO 68 90 67 93 / 10 20 10 10
MLB 69 88 67 88 / 10 20 20 10
VRB 64 87 66 87 / 10 20 20 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-
MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....GLITTO/MOSES
000
FXUS62 KKEY 061858
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
258 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
AFTER A COUPLE OF WATERSPOUTS WERE OBSERVED ON THE NEARSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTHEAST OF BIG PINE KEY DURING MID MORNING...ONLY
A TENACIOUS CLOUD LINE PROPAGATING NORTHEAST OF BIG PINE KEY INTO
THE OUTER WATERS OF MAINLAND REMAINS. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIM INTO
THE MID 80S...WHILE LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ECHOES. SURFACE WISE...A PERSISTENT WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE IS STRETCHING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ACROSS THE MARINE
DISTRICT...C-MAN STATION PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A DEEP...EAST-WEST ORIENTED WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LYING ACROSS THE
SUNSHINE STATE AND WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRIEFLY
SEVER...AS A FORMIDABLE 500 MB SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE KEYS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
BREACHING OF THE DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS
THE RIDGE INTENSIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS LARGE
SCALE DESCENT IS WELL DEPICTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH REVEAL
PWAT VALUES OF 1 INCH OR LESS...WITH MOISTURE LIMITED TO BELOW 850
MB. HENCE...POPS WILL BE LEFT OUT WITH THE ONLY CONCERN BEING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOUTH FLORIDA SEA BREEZE
COLLISIONS POSSIBLY BEING ENHANCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. FURTHERMORE...A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW
MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY.
FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE ONLY 5 PERCENT OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN AND WATERS
NORTH.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE DEEP LAYERED WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE REACHING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL SLOWLY PINCH OFF
WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BECOMING THE
DOMINATE CENTER OF STRONG ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. FURTHERMORE...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REVEAL LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES GENERALLY BELOW
1.25 INCHES...WITH MOST MOISTURE CONFINED TO BELOW 700 MB BENEATH A
SUBSTANTIAL STABLE LAYER. GIVEN THE MODERATE TO FRESH LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW AND WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 DEGREES...WILL
MAINTAIN ONLY 10 PERCENT POPS. OTHERWISE...STRENGTHENING AND
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION WILL ALLOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.MARINE...
ANOTHER MINOR WIND SURGE INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WILL
OCCUR ON KEYS WATERS THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE WINDS
GRADUALLY RETURN TO LIGHT TO GENTLE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR THE
END OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND...NO HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY ON
KEYS WATERS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH ISLAND TERMINALS
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BACK TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 76 85 76 84 / 05 05 05 05
MARATHON 76 88 76 88 / 05 05 05 05
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................AL
DATA ACQUISITION.....................WAH
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KTBW 061846
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
246 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
.UPDATE...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
INTERIOR COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM EDT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S OVER THESE
COUNTIES AND WITH THE DRY AIR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MIXING DOWN
AND SEA BREEZES NOT REACHING THESE AREAS UNTIL EARLY EVENING WE
SHOULD REACH THE CRITICAL 4 HOURS OR MORE OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
BELOW 35 PERCENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 127 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE LOWER MISS
AND TN VALLEYS WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
ON THURSDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PASS BY MAINLY TO OUR NORTH...HOWEVER
WE WILL BE ON THE VERY SOUTHERN TAIL END OF THE WAVE AXIS...WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY UPPER ENERGY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE A SUBTLE ENHANCEMENT TO OUR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE SHOWER ACTIVITY. SIMILAR TO PAST FEW
DAYS...BEST CHANCE WILL BE EAST OF I-75. ON FRIDAY...SHORT WAVE
AXIS WILL BE TO OUR E WITH A ZONAL PATTERN RESUMING OVER OUR
REGION...SO BACK TO MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY...ONCE AGAIN FAVORING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE PENINSULA.
IN THE MEANTIME FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ANY ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TSTM ACTIVITY WILL END BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 80S AT THE BEACHES TO AROUND 90 INLAND AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPR
60S.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
GULF AND OVER FL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL MEANDER ACROSS CENTRAL FL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT SAGS INTO THE SE U.S. BY MON THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS THE FRONT SLIDES IN OVER NORTH FL. THE FRONT
WASHES OUT MON NIGHT OR EARLY TUE...BEFORE IT HAS AN IMPACT ON THE
CWA...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS
HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE TO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH WED.
THE FORECAST WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE AND LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION. AS
NOTED ABOVE THE FRONT DOES NOT REACH THE CWA BUT AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR EACH DAY.
AVIATION (06/18Z - 07/18Z)...VFR. FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE
2000 TO 5000 FT RANGE WITH SOME CIRRUS ABOVE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL VEER TO SW AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISH AND
BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THEY PICK UP SOME THU MORNING FROM THE
SOUTH.
MARINE...FAIR MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS AND LIGHT PRES GRADIENT. NO HEADLINES.
FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS WILL BE CLOSE TO RFW
CRITERIA...BUT DURATIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST BELOW 4 HRS. FOR NOW
WILL HEADLINE 1-3 HRS CRITICAL RH AND WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 70 87 70 88 / 5 10 0 10
FMY 69 91 70 89 / 10 20 0 5
GIF 69 91 69 91 / 20 20 10 10
SRQ 70 86 69 84 / 5 10 0 10
BKV 64 88 64 88 / 10 20 0 10
SPG 74 86 74 86 / 5 10 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DE SOTO-HARDEE-
HIGHLANDS-POLK.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...17/PETRO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE
UPDATE...69/CLOSE
000
FXUS62 KMFL 061834
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
234 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE MAINLAND. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ONSHORE PERIODICALLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW REGIME...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR ZONES...WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG INLAND
MOVING GULF COAST SEA BREEZE. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN POSITIONED BENEATH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM A LARGE MID-
TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...WITH LANDMASS COOLING ALLOWING AN OFFSHORE BREEZE
TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS OVERNIGHT...AND PATCHY FOG (AND
SMOKE) POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR DURING A BRIEF PERIOD FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK MID-LEVEL
VORT MAX WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE ALOFT. HOWEVER...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN AVAILABILITY OF
MOISTURE...WILL MAINTAIN POP AT 10 PERCENT. ANY INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY BRIEF...AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD RESTRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA FROM
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WILL MAINTAIN A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST...WITH MAV/MET NUMBERS CLOSE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S BOTH THURSDAY/FRIDAY AFTERNOONS OVER THE INTERIOR...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S EXPECTED ALONG
BOTH COASTS AT NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE VERY LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE TO THE STAGNANT BUT BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THAT
HAS BEEN IN PLACE RECENTLY...AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THE PATTERN MAY SHIFT SUBTLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A BROAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION ERODES THIS RIDGE TO THE POINT THAT IT
BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD...WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SLIGHTLY ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
PERIODICALLY FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE ANYTHING GREATER THAN A 10
POP IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. RIDGE ALOFT WILL LIKELY EXPAND
BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONGER UPPER VORT MAX MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OVERALL...WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MARINE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 8-12 KNOTS PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE A LIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT IN
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH LAND BREEZE.
REGARDLESS...EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN 2-3 FEET AT MOST IN THIS
REGIME...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PERSISTING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RFW CONTINUES FOR GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
ISSUE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY...AS SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER
90S DURING THE AFTERNOONS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING OF DRY AIR
ALOFT...AND FUTURE RFWS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS
ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...NO CONCERNS
FOR REMAINDER OF FIRE WEATHER ZONES...WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFELY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 68 85 68 85 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 87 73 87 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 72 88 72 88 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 68 87 68 87 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...52/PS
000
FXUS62 KJAX 061830
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
229 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
...HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND...
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER FLOW OVER THE IMMEDIATE AREA HAS BECOME MOSTLY
ZONAL WITH WEAK RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC TO CENTRAL FL. LARGE SCALE
TROF EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE N CENTRAL GOMEX. CURRENT
TSTM ACTIVITY IS WELL NW OF THE AREA FROM NW GA TO S CENTRAL AL
AND FROM N MS TO N LA. SUBSIDENCE APPARENT OVER SE GA MATCHES WITH
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS WITH LARGE NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AREA.
BEST DEVELOPMENT ON CU FIELD AT THIS TIME IS OVER OUR S ZONES
WHERE A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM. BOTH SEABREEZES ARE MAKING
GOOD INLAND PROGRESS. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM NEAR 80 ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST TO AROUND 90 OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.
.SHORT TERM...BEST CAPES AND NON-HOSTILE TSTM ENVIRONMENT IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE OVER INLAND NE FL. PROGS INDICATE THAT
CAPES WILL INCREASE OVER SE GE THRU THE EVENING. RUC ALSO HINTS AT
SOME BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THAT
AREA DURING THE MID-EVENING. THIS FEATURE IS MAINTAINING THE
CONVECTION FROM NE GA TO S CENTRAL AL. EVEN IF THIS PRECIP DOESN`T
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...PERHAPS OUTFLOWS FROM THE
TSTMS WILL. AS A RESULT...HAVE REDUCED LATE AFTERNOON POPS OVER SE
GA BUT TWEAKED THEM UP A BIT IN THE EVENING PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
BEST RAIN CHANCES ON THU WILL BE OVER SE GA ZONES WITH GREATEST
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...POPS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THRU THE END
OF THE WORK-WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE S OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAXES
INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...GFS APPEARS TO HAVE SETTLED ON MOVING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO
POPS OR TEMPS. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY WED AND THU.
&&
.AVIATION...HAVE VCTS IN SSI...JAX...VQQ...AND CRG TAFS BETWEEN 20Z
AND 01Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG EAST
COAST SEABREEZE AND TRACK SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
&&
.MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH SCEC HEADLINE FOR
OFFSHORE ZONES AS WINDS INCREASE AT NIGHT OVER THE WATER. SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT MAY PUSH
INTO THE WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 64 88 65 91 / 20 30 20 10
SSI 68 85 69 87 / 10 20 10 10
JAX 66 89 66 91 / 20 20 10 10
SGJ 68 87 68 88 / 10 10 10 10
GNV 64 91 63 92 / 10 10 10 10
OCF 64 91 63 92 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
CARROLL/ZIBURA/WALKER
000
FXUS62 KTAE 061803
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
200 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...18Z REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT FROM SRN OK THROUGH AR...NRN AL AND GA INTO ERN NC. THIS
BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AR...HAS
BEEN THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY. THE REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SWRN END OF AN MCS OVER
NRN/CNTRL AL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRUSH NRN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF A DHN-ABY LINE. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. FURTHER TO THE S...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS DRIER WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH WILL
SUPPRESS SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVES OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS PUSHES EWD TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY...AND IS REPLACED BY ZONAL FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. THE STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE WWD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE INTO THE SERN
CONUS. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR AL/GA ZONES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
DUE TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND PASSING SHORT WAVES...WITH ISOLATED
POPS TO THE S. WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...PATCHY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP MOST AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT...MOST INLAND AREAS WILL SURPASS THE
90 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH A BIT WITH A FLAT
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP THE
QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY...DEEPEST MOISTURE...AND FORCING
TO THE NORTH AS WELL...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION
AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH 90 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ALONG WITH GUSTY S TO SW WINDS. IT APPEARS THAT THE
CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS AL IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SWD AND WE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR TS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AT KDHN. WE ARE GOING WITH THE GFS IDEA OF A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SWEEPING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD BE THE MCS CURRENTLY OVER MS AND FORECAST
CORFIDI VECTORS STEER IT INTO OUR ZONES. INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUPS
FOR DHN AND ABY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FURTHER S...LOOKING FOR MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KPFN...KTLH AND KVLD WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
AT THE LATTER TWO TERMINALS. KTLH IS PROGGED TO HAVE A PERIOD OF IFR
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CIGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS AND CHOPPIEST SEAS NEAR THE COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DESPITE INLAND AFTERNOON TEMPS AROUND 90 THE NEXT
FEW AFTERNOONS...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE RED
FLAG CRITERIA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 66 89 67 91 65 / 10 20 10 0 10
PANAMA CITY 71 84 71 84 70 / 10 20 10 0 10
DOTHAN 69 87 68 91 67 / 30 30 10 10 10
ALBANY 68 88 68 91 64 / 30 30 10 10 10
VALDOSTA 66 89 66 91 64 / 20 20 10 10 10
CROSS CITY 66 88 66 89 64 / 10 10 10 0 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
&&
$$
AVIATION...WOOL
LONG TERM...CAMP
REST OF DISCUSSION...JAMSKI
000
FXUS62 KMFL 061746
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
146 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON OF 10-13KTS WILL PREVAIL AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LAND BREEZE DEVELOPING TOWARDS
SUNRISE IN THE MORNING WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AGAIN TOWARDS
NOON AS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. SWLY SEA BREEZE IN KAPF WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND FROM
THE SE OVERNIGHT. SWLY SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AGAIN AROUND NOON
TOMORROW AS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2009/
UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FIRST PERIOD FORECAST
THIS MORNING...WITH ALL GRID ELEMENTS APPEARING TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS POINT. DID DECIDE TO ADD A 10 POP AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO ALL MAINLAND AND MARINE ZONES FOR REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING...AS ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. CONVERGENCE BAND OFF THE
COAST OF POMPANO BEACH THAT RESULTED IN A COUPLE OF WATERSPOUTS
ALSO APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD...AND
ALTHOUGH A REMOTE THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
NOON...THE CHANCES APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING. CLOUD COVER GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT
WIND/TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT GRIDS ALL LOOK OKAY.
70/DD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...AGAIN, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE DICTATING THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA CONTINUES TO BE
THE LOW/MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SW TO THE GULF OF MEX. PREVIOUS MDLS RUNS WERE INDICATING
THAT THE SRN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET WAS GOING TO DIG SOUTHEAST
OVER THE ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
RIDING ALONG IT, HOWEVER, THAT IS NO LONGER THE CASE AND SO THE
LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. SO A MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E/SE FLOW REGIME WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD,
THAT IS, THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOW, AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
PAST FEW DAYS...LOCAL EFFECTS SUCH AS SEA/LAKE BREEZES
CONVERGENCE, DIURNAL HEATING AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. MOST FAVORABLE
AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NORTHWEST/WEST INTERIOR AS THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE PENETRATES INLAND AND CONVERGES WITH THE
PREVAILING E/SE FLOW.
HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES (90+) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS HENDRY AND GLADES WHERE MAX COULD
REACH THE MID 90S FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND. ON THE OTHER HAND...SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THE TEMPS KEEPING THEM IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ALONG, BOTH, WESTERN AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS.
MARINE...A LIGHT TO GENTLE MOSTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW (AOB
10 KTS) SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SEAS MOSTLY AT 2
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PACKAGE.
FIRE WEATHER...THE COMBINATION OF TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
AND DEW POINTS IN THE M/U 50S WILL AGAIN RESULT IN AN INCREASED
FIRE DANGER ACROSS GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES WITH RH VALUES
FALLING BELOW 35 FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS. THEREFORE, A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES. RH VALUES COULD FALL
TO AROUND 35% ACROSS OTHER AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...NAMELY INLAND
BROWARD AND INLAND COLLIER COUNTIES...BUT DURATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS. RH SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE 35%
OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A PERSISTENT SE FLOW WILL RESULT
IN DEW POINTS GRADUALLY CLIMBING UP THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH MIN RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS STARTING BY MID WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 73 84 71 / 10 - - 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 74 84 73 / 10 - - 10
MIAMI 86 75 87 74 / 10 - - 10
NAPLES 87 69 87 69 / 10 - - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...52/PS
000
FXUS62 KTBW 061727
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
127 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE LOWER MISS
AND TN VALLEYS WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PASS BY MAINLY TO OUR NORTH...HOWEVER WE
WILL BE ON THE VERY SOUTHERN TAIL END OF THE WAVE AXIS...WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY UPPER ENERGY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
NORTH...THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE A SUBTLE ENHANCEMENT TO OUR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE SHOWER ACTIVITY. SIMILAR TO PAST FEW
DAYS...BEST CHANCE WILL BE EAST OF I-75. ON FRIDAY...SHORT WAVE
AXIS WILL BE TO OUR E WITH A ZONAL PATTERN RESUMING OVER OUR
REGION...SO BACK TO MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY...ONCE AGAIN FAVORING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE PENINSULA.
IN THE MEANTIME FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ANY ISOLD SHOWER OR
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL END BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 80S AT THE BEACHES TO AROUND 90 INLAND AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPR
60S.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
GULF AND OVER FL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL MEANDER ACROSS CENTRAL FL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT SAGS INTO THE SE U.S. BY MON THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS THE FRONT SLIDES IN OVER NORTH FL. THE FRONT
WASHES OUT MON NIGHT OR EARLY TUE...BEFORE IT HAS AN IMPACT ON THE
CWA...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS
HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE TO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH WED.
THE FORECAST WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE AND LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION. AS
NOTED ABOVE THE FRONT DOES NOT REACH THE CWA BUT AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION (06/18Z - 07/18Z)...VFR. FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE
2000 TO 5000 FT RANGE WITH SOME CIRRUS ABOVE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL VEER TO SW AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISH AND
BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THEY PICK UP SOME THU MORNING FROM THE
SOUTH.
&&
.MARINE...FAIR MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS AND LIGHT PRES GRADIENT. NO HEADLINES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS WILL BE CLOSE TO RFW
CRITERIA...BUT DURATIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST BELOW 4 HRS. FOR NOW
WILL HEADLINE 1-3 HRS CRITICAL RH AND WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 70 87 70 88 / 5 10 0 10
FMY 69 91 70 89 / 10 20 0 5
GIF 69 91 69 91 / 20 20 10 10
SRQ 70 86 69 84 / 5 10 0 10
BKV 64 88 64 88 / 10 20 0 10
SPG 74 86 74 86 / 5 10 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...17/PETRO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE
000
FXUS62 KMFL 061443
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1043 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FIRST PERIOD FORECAST
THIS MORNING...WITH ALL GRID ELEMENTS APPEARING TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS POINT. DID DECIDE TO ADD A 10 POP AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO ALL MAINLAND AND MARINE ZONES FOR REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING...AS ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. CONVERGENCE BAND OFF THE
COAST OF POMPANO BEACH THAT RESULTED IN A COUPLE OF WATERSPOUTS
ALSO APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD...AND
ALTHOUGH A REMOTE THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
NOON...THE CHANCES APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING. CLOUD COVER GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT
WIND/TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT GRIDS ALL LOOK OKAY.
70/DD
&&
.AVIATION DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 10-13KTS BY LATE IN THE MORNING
ALONG THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS AT KAPF WILL SWITCH TO ON SHORE FLOW AS SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP AT KAPF BY 16-17Z AT THE LATEST WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE SW.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...AGAIN, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE DICTATING THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA CONTINUES TO BE
THE LOW/MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SW TO THE GULF OF MEX. PREVIOUS MDLS RUNS WERE INDICATING
THAT THE SRN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET WAS GOING TO DIG SOUTHEAST
OVER THE ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
RIDING ALONG IT, HOWEVER, THAT IS NO LONGER THE CASE AND SO THE
LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. SO A MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E/SE FLOW REGIME WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD,
THAT IS, THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOW, AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
PAST FEW DAYS...LOCAL EFFECTS SUCH AS SEA/LAKE BREEZES
CONVERGENCE, DIURNAL HEATING AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. MOST FAVORABLE
AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NORTHWEST/WEST INTERIOR AS THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE PENETRATES INLAND AND CONVERGES WITH THE
PREVAILING E/SE FLOW.
HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES (90+) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS HENDRY AND GLADES WHERE MAX COULD
REACH THE MID 90S FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND. ON THE OTHER HAND...SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THE TEMPS KEEPING THEM IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ALONG, BOTH, WESTERN AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS.
MARINE...A LIGHT TO GENTLE MOSTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW (AOB
10 KTS) SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SEAS MOSTLY AT 2
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PACKAGE.
FIRE WEATHER...THE COMBINATION OF TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
AND DEW POINTS IN THE M/U 50S WILL AGAIN RESULT IN AN INCREASED
FIRE DANGER ACROSS GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES WITH RH VALUES
FALLING BELOW 35 FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS. THEREFORE, A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES. RH VALUES COULD FALL
TO AROUND 35% ACROSS OTHER AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...NAMELY INLAND
BROWARD AND INLAND COLLIER COUNTIES...BUT DURATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS. RH SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE 35%
OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A PERSISTENT SE FLOW WILL RESULT
IN DEW POINTS GRADUALLY CLIMBING UP THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH MIN RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS STARTING BY MID WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 73 84 71 / 10 - - 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 74 84 73 / 10 - - 10
MIAMI 86 75 87 74 / 10 - - 10
NAPLES 87 69 87 69 / 10 - - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...52/PS
000
FXUS62 KKEY 061437
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1035 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SURPRISE...SEVERAL CLOUD LINES GENERATED A FEW SMALL SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE OF WATERSPOUTS OVER THE LOWER KEYS AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS. SURFACE WISE...A PERSISTENT...ALBEIT
WEAKENED...WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ACROSS THE MARINE
DISTRICT...C-MAN STATION PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WHILE LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...OUR MORNING SOUNDING REVEALED
A VERY DRY AIRMASS (PWAT .88 INCHES) WITH THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY CONFINED BELOW THE LOWEST INVERSION BASED AT 900 MB.
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST WINDS BACK TO EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST
ABOVE THE INVERSION...BEFORE A UNIDIRECTIONAL AND INCREASING
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER ABOVE 500 MB.
.SHORT TERM (FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY)...
THE MID MORNING CLOUD LINES SHOULD ERODE BY AFTERNOON AS SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
IN OUR ENTIRE SERVICE AREA. CONSIDERABLE INSOLATION AND LIGHT TO
GENTLE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
80S. SINCE THE CURRENT PUBLIC FORECAST INDICATES THE EXPECTED
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS...NO ADJUSTMENTS ARE PLANNED.
&&
.MARINE...
OUR MORNING RAWINDSONDE DEPICTS EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 AND 11
KNOTS RESPECTIVELY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE KBYX VWP AND CUDJOE KEY
WIND PROFILER. WITH THE WEAK WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE
INDICATES NEAR 10 KNOTS NEAR THE REEF...EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE A
TAD HIGHER ON THE OFFSHORE STRAITS BEYOND 20 NM...HENCE...10 TO 15
KNOTS WILL BE KEPT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. ELSEWHERE...EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BE KEPT.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH ISLAND TERMINALS
TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10
KNOTS.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................AL
DATA ACQUISITION.....................WAH
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KJAX 061409
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1005 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
...HOT TEMPERATURES WILL EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND...
.SHORT TERM...MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE 06Z NAM AND GFS HAVE MOSTLY
NEUTRAL DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA) PATTERN OVER
THE AREA THRU THE DAY...WITH EVEN SOME NEGATIVE ADVECTION NOTED.
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE LATEST RUC WHICH DOES DEPICT AN ELONGATED
AXIS OF PVA MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DON`T SEE ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS AS MORNING CONVECTION HAS STAYED WELL TO THE N FROM
N GA TO N TX ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. AS A RESULT...MOST
FORCING TODAY WILL BE FROM SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF AN OUTFLOW FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO OUR N ZONES
LATE. AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THINK THAT 40% POPS MAY BE A BIT
TOO HIGH OVER INTERIOR NE FL. ALSO THINK THAT PRECIP PATTERN IN
GRIDS MAY BE A BIT TOO FAR INLAND OVER OUR S ZONES. WILL ADJUST
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERALL PRECIP PATTERN WILL NOT BE CHANGED TOO
MUCH. WILL REMOVE MORNING FOG WORDING FROM ZFP.
&&
.AVIATION...WILL LIKELY NEED TO BEEF UP TSTMS IN TAFS TO AT LEAST
VCTS.
&&
.MARINE...WILL BUMP OFFSHORE SEAS DOWN ABOUT A FOOT AS ALL
SURROUNDING BUOYS ARE REPORTING SOLID 3 FT SEAS.
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
CARROLL/WALKER
000
FXUS62 KMLB 061400
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT WX PATTERN WITH THE DLM ATLC RIDGE HOLDING FIRM OVER THE
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE L/M80S...WHICH MOST AREAS WILL MEET BY LATE MORNING. MOISTURE
REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1.2-1.3" RANGE AND
MEAN H100-H70 RH VALUES AOB 60%.
POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW BOTH SEABREEZES TO FORM BY LATE
MORNING AND PUSH WELL INLAND BY LATE AFTN. COLLISION ANTICIPATED IN
THE VICINITY OF A LINE FROM LAKE GEORGE TO LAKE KISSIMMEE.
SHRAS/TSRAS SHOULD DVLP ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND WITHIN
THE CONVERGENCE ZONE...BUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE
TO LESS THAN 20%.
THE MORNING FCST PACKAGE LOOKS FINE...NO PLANS TO UPDATE THIS
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 06/18Z. BTWN 06/18Z-07/02Z OCNL CIGS AOA FL040
W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...ISOLD MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS ALONG A LINE
FROM LAKE GEORGE TO LAKE KISSIMMEE ASSOCD WITH A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
COLLISION. VFR ALL SITES AFT 07/02Z.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HIGHLIGHTS...NO SIG CHANGES. DLM RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA WILL GENERATE A LIGHT TO MODERATE SRLY BREEZE WITH SEAS
AOB 3FT NEARSHORE...AOB 4FT OFFSHORE.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....GLITTO/MOSES
000
FXUS62 KTAE 061326
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
925 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
.UPDATE...THE 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
FROM NRN TX ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF MS...AL...GA AND SC THEN INTO ERN
NC. THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG CONVECTION
WITH SEVERAL MCS` PROPAGATING EWD ALONG IT. THE SHORT WAVE OVER AR
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TODAY. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NWD...WITH BETTER FORCING FOR
CONVECTION TO THE N. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MID LEVEL DRYING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
TAE...PFN AND VLD ALL SHOW A NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE BETWEEN
850-700 MB THAT WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE LIFT OF SURFACE-BASED PARCELS
ABOVE THIS LEVEL. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS MORE FAVORABLE
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM DHN TO ABY WHERE SURFACE-BASED CAPES
(SBCAPE) ARE PREDICTED TO APPROACH 2000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS DUE TO DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH
WILL HELP ACCELERATE ANY DOWNDRAFTS TOWARD THE SURFACE. THE 12Z SPC
DAY1 OUTLOOK DEPICTS THE SRN EDGE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA JUST TO
THE N OF OUR CWA. THE MODIFIED TAE 12Z SOUNDING FOR AFTERNOON T/TD
OF 89/60 PRODUCES A SBCAPE OF 910 J/KG AND -2 LI...WHICH IS A MORE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TODAYS POP GRIDS
WHICH REFLECT A NW-SE GRADIENT LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL NOT ADJUST
AT THIS TIME. WILL AMEND THE ZONES TO REMOVE THE MORNING WORDING
ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES.
&&
.AVIATION...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS
WITH LOWEST VSBY AT KTLH...CIGS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH MVFR BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT BY MID MORNING. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR GIGS/VSBY IS EXPECTED
WITH PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z.
&&
.MARINE...OBS TRENDS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT AND 2-3 FT
SEAS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE IN THE SEA BREEZE ZONE WHERE ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL PEAK AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 3 FEET DURING THIS
TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER
80S INLAND...RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 89 64 87 65 90 / 10 10 30 10 05
PANAMA CITY 83 70 84 70 85 / 10 10 20 10 05
DOTHAN 87 69 86 68 91 / 30 20 50 20 05
ALBANY 87 66 86 67 92 / 30 20 50 20 05
VALDOSTA 89 64 88 64 91 / 10 10 30 10 05
CROSS CITY 88 63 86 64 90 / 05 10 20 05 05
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...WOOL
REST OF DISCUSSION...JAMSKI
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