30 Jan 2009 04:34 pm

Republicans Cheer for Chairman Steele

In the United States, in 2009, the head of the Democratic Party and the head of the Republican Party are black.

Granted, one has much more power than the other. (One is titular, the other is de jure.)

And one may have been chosen in reaction to the other.

But -- for a party that was not too longer ago openly dedicated to a strategy of using racial fears to attract white votes, it's something.

In a short stemwinder, Steele promised to broaden the party's geographic base and "stand proud" as the country's conservative party.

"It's time for something completely different," he said, to cheers.

 "To my friends in the Northeast, get ready baby, we're going to turn it on.  We're going to win in the Northeast.  We're going to continue to win in the South... In the West."

"To those who are ready to obstruct," he warned. "[G]et ready to get knocked over."

Did Republicans choose Steele as a token? Some RNC members will think so, as will many skeptical Democrats.  But Steele won this thing by himself.  The RNC is a fractious, uncooperative bunch. And Steele patiently politicked his way through six ballots. Just a few hours ago, my correspondent Will DiNovi saw Steele and Ohio's Kenneth Blackwell face to face in the hall. "I know we've disagreed on a lot of things," Steele was telling him. Blackwell waited a little -- then he endorsed Steele.

Steele's election won't help the party attrack black voters immediately, but if Steele sets the right tone, he could help the party compete for them in the (way)  future.  As GOP strategists have always known, and noted, somewhat dyspeptically, it's white suburban voters, particularly women, who are responsive to a diversity message. The RNC isn't diverse yet; only five black delegates were chosen to attend the national convention. Steele was disgusted by that. It prompted him to run.

Continue reading "Republicans Cheer for Chairman Steele" »

30 Jan 2009 04:04 pm

Bulletin: Steele Wins

With 91 votes.

On the sixth ballot.

 

30 Jan 2009 04:00 pm

Labor's Day At The White House

Here's an update from a variety of labor union sources about the White House outreach to this most important Democratic constituency:

Today was the first of several labor action days, with Obama signing executive orders to overturn Bush administration policies. Over the next few months, Obama will sign several executive orders about labor rules, wages, and contract negotiations -- affirmative things, inducements, improvements.  It does appear that card check, what labor really wants, will have to wait. Majority Leader Harry Reid said that it wouldn't come up before the summer. But the summer turns into the fall mightly quickly, and the fall expeditiously turns into 2010, with a slew of gubernatorial, Senate and House races.  Last night, CNBC's John Harwood asked if the White House was pushing for EFCA "rapidly." Biden preferred the word "prudently."

HARWOOD: Couple of other things, quickly. On organized labor, the issue of this Card Check Bill...

Vice Pres. BIDEN: Yeah.

HARWOOD: ...to make union organizing easier is a flashpoint for some in business and labor alike. Is this something that you are--and the administration are nominally for but are going to slow walk, and it's not likely to become law this year or anytime soon? Or is it something that you all are going to try to push for rapidly?

Vice Pres. BIDEN: We're going to try to push for prudently. By that I mean there's only so much on the plate these first couple months. Everyone understands--I think both of us thought 10 months ago that this would be a top-priority item in terms of immediate action. We know there's probably going to be some compromise here. We also know that we have to get more than just Democratic support for this. But we both believe it's very important, making and--taking away the roadblocks that were built up. For example, today when they announce the middle class--I'm probably dating this program, but the--announcing the middle class task force, the president's going to sign four executive orders, and they relate to impediments that executively put in place by the Bush administration making it more difficult for labor to just under the rules that exist--the guys in the striped shirts, you know, calling the--giving them a fair shot at organizing. So we do think making it--taking away the impediments to organization is in the self-interest of labor, but also I believe in the self-interest of economic growth.

HARWOOD: Sounds like that is a 2010 or beyond issue.

Vice Pres. BIDEN: No, no, no, no. This year. This year, we hope. Our expectation is this year, this calendar year, that we will move, and hopefully with some bipartisan support, to dealing with this issue.

While labor supports the stimulus bill and White House priorities in general, they want more spending on direct infrasturcture out of the Senate bill, and will in all likelihood make those differences known if the White House disagrees with them.

Some labor folks are a little antsy about the President's silence on the confirmation of his labor secretary, Hilda Solis, but the White House has reassured labor leaders privately that she will be confirmed soon.

30 Jan 2009 03:28 pm

RNC Round 5: Steele On The Verge

Steele: 79

Dawson: 69

Anuzis: 20

Ken Blackwell dropped out and endorsed Steele. Anuzis just dropped out.

Holland Redfield, a committeeman from the U.S. Virgin Islands, tells correspondent Will DiNovi that the U.S. territories proved to be a "kingmaker" for Steele. "We're going to push the Republican Party from vanilla to butterschotch," he said. 

30 Jan 2009 02:42 pm

RNC Round 4: Duncan Support Goes to Dawson

Katon Dawson: 62

Michael Steele: 60

Saul Anuzis: 31

Ken Blackwell: 15

 

 

30 Jan 2009 02:16 pm

RNC Chairman Duncan Drops Re-Election Bid

It's over for Mike Duncan.  The current RNC chairman has dropped his re-election bid.

30 Jan 2009 01:42 pm

RNC Round Three: Steele Leading

Maryland's Michael Steele: 51

Kentucky incumbent Mike Duncan: 44

South Carolina: Katon Dawson: 34

Michigan's Saul Anuzis: 24

Ohio's Ken Blackwell: 15

 

Typical of the mood in the room, as related by correspondent Will DiNovi, is what Joe Trillo, a national committeeman from Rhode Island, had to say:  "It's a diverse party. We're tired of being labeled as white supremacists."

 

Maine GOP chair Mark Ellis says he's still supporting Duncan, owing to Duncan's proven ability as a manager and a fundraiser.

 

Watch for Anuzis to make a deal with Steele...

30 Jan 2009 01:12 pm

The Judd Gregg Project

Now that Sen. Judd Gregg has confirmed that Obama administrations are putting him through the feelers for the Commerce Secretary job, we should pause to untangle the various political ramifications.

The White House isn't commenting, but my understanding that Gregg is a leading candidate for the job, not just a regular candidate.

On the surface, Gregg's nomination would help the administration bolster its bipartisan credentials. Gregg, a budget hawk, might been seen as the budget-cruncher's advocate inside the administration. Blue Dog Democrats and moderate Republicans would be satisified that the Obama Administration is serious about reforming the budget project and committed to fiscal discipline.

Under the surface, there are fears.

Republican politicos don't want Gregg to abandon the party and potentially give Democrats their 60th seat. They figure that New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch (D) is certain to appoint a fellow Democrat to replace him for the duration of his term, which ends in 2010. 

But Lynch doesn't have those partisan proclivities. He is very sensitive to the coalition in New Hampshire he has built. And he might -- just might -- find an acceptable Republican or independent to fill the seat.

The White House understands that Gregg's successor might be a Republican; Gregg understands that the White House does not object to this possibility, which is one reason why Gregg is taking the call to serve so seriously.

30 Jan 2009 12:53 pm

RNC: Steele Bounces On First, Second Ballots

Results from the second round of balloting:

Chairman Mike Duncan -- 48

Michael Steele -- 48   (the crowd seems to be pro-Steele; he had more seconding speeches than anyone else.)

Katon Dawson -- 29

Saul Anuzis -- 24

Ken Blackwell -- 19

Here's my handicapping on the results of the first ballot:

Chairman Mike Duncan  -- 52 -- lower than expected

Michael Steele: 46 -- about 5-6 votes higher than expected.

Katon Dawson: 28: -- he'll get some Blackwell votes in the second round. 

Saul Anuzis:  22:  -- a tough finish for the Midwesterner.

Ken Blackwell: 20 -- this is his ceiling.

To watch: whether the RNC members interpret Duncan's showing as evidence that he's going to win.

 

30 Jan 2009 11:10 am

The Organizing For American E-mail

Here it is:

[REDACTED] --

Last year, America lost 2.6 million jobs. This week, some of our
biggest companies announced plans to cut tens of thousands more.

The economic crisis is deepening, but President Obama and
members of Congress have proposed a recovery plan that will put
more than 3 million Americans back to work.

You can learn more about how the plan will help your community
by organizing an Economic Recovery House Meeting:

http://my.barackobama.com/recoveryhost

Join thousands of people across the country who are coming
together to watch a special video about the recovery plan.
Invite your friends and neighbors to watch the video with you
and have a conversation about your community's economic situation.

The economic crisis can seem overwhelming and complex, but you
can help the people you know connect the recovery plan to their
lives and learn more about why it's so important.

Sign up to host an Economic Recovery House Meeting the weekend
of Friday, February 6th:

http://my.barackobama.com/recoveryhost

The President's plan passed the House of Representatives on
Wednesday. But if it's going to move forward, we need to avoid
the usual partisan games.

That's why supporters are opening their homes to talk with
neighbors and friends about how the plan will work -- and what
it means for their community.

The video will outline the basics of the plan and how it will
impact working families. It will also include answers to
questions from folks across the country. Invite your friends and
family to watch the video, discuss the plan, and help build
support for it.

Don't worry if you've never hosted a house meeting before --
we'll make sure you have everything you need to make it a success.

Take the first step right now by signing up to host an Economic
Recovery House Meeting:

Time and again, you've demonstrated your commitment to change.
Now you can help America move in an important new direction.

Please forward this email to your friends and family, and
encourage them to get involved as well.

Thank you for your hard work,

Mitch

Mitch Stewart
Director
Organizing for America
30 Jan 2009 10:41 am

Obama List To Be Tapped Today For Economic Recovery

Organizing for American will send out its first activism alert e-mail today, a Democratic official said, urging Obama supporters to host an "Economic Recovery Meeting" in their community and discuss the President's plan.

At this point, it appears that only those who have hosted house parties before will get the e-mail, and not all 13 million supporters.

Still, this is the first time Obama's campaign corps has called to action in support a presidential priority.

More on this story as details become available...

30 Jan 2009 10:04 am

A Steele Surge?

Voting begins in two hours, but the chatter in the halls of the Capital Hilton is that Michael Steele has benefited from a last-minute surge of support.  Steele's team estimates that he has at least 40 first-round votes in the bag, second only to current RNC chairman Mike Duncan, who will probably finish the first round with between 55 and 65 votes. 

During a private meeting with members last night, Steele vociferously defended his personal views -- he's pro-life -- and his intention to broaden the party's reach to include those who disagree. He was well-recieved.


30 Jan 2009 06:00 am

A Cheat Sheet To Today's RNC Race

For those who've been paying attention to other matters, here's a quick guide:

The RNC chair has two main duties over the next several years. He (all the candidates are men) has to harness the technological advances of the Obama campaign to increase the efficiency of Republican fundraising and outreach. And he will be in a position to shape the type of Republican who is nominated for president.  The RNC chairman can appoint a drafting committee to send him a proposal to adopt a calendar in 2012 that incentivizes certain states into holding caucuses or conferences, and not primaries.

Conservative candidates tend to win smaller contests because they're better able mobilize activists. The RNC chairman can therefore assure that the primary calendar tilts towards conservative candidates, just as, in the late 1970s and early 1980s, the Democratic calendar tilted against establishment favorites.

This power is significant. But the candidates are only talking about it in code.

One of the biggest public debates is whether former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele is conservative enough - or, rather, whether he surrounds himself with conservatives.

Steele was a charter member of a centrist group called the Republican Leadership Council, a group that is very unpopular with the party's conservatives. If Steele were to win, the worry is not that he would broaden the party's tent too much. It's that his lieutenants would be beholden to centrists, who in turn would exercise influence over the nomination process.

In addition, certain candidates are perceived to be stalking-horses for certain candidates. Michigan's Saul Anuzis is cozy with consultants who helped Mitt Romney's presidential bid, although many Romney consultants are supporting other candidates.

Tennessean Chip Saltzman's bid was clipped early on when former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee began to make calls on his behalf. As there is no frontrunner for the 2012 nomination - not even Sarah Palin merits that designation - the committee doesn't want to endorse a chairman who is beholden to a particular candidate.

Admittedly, this is a very parochial way of looking at a high-profile American political job. All the candidates pay lip service to the idea that the RNC needs to better communicate Republican ideals, but they know that, until there is a 2012 nominee, the RNC's public face will be fuzzy and inconsequential.

Very privately, a few of the candidates have expressed discomfort with the ideological ghetto the party finds itself in - way too beholden to southern Christian conservatives - but none dare make that argument publicly.

Instead, virtually all of the candidates say they want to increase outreach to blacks and Hispanics, though they have no real plans for this yet.

Their basic diagnosis of the problem facing Republicans is that Republicans have lost their ideals, that they arrived in Washington and turned into Washingtonians.

None believes that the party is too conservative, or that suburbanites and white college-educated voters have been turned off by the party's flashy Christian identity - even though this is what exit polls seem to suggest.

Where the RNC members do worry about public opinion is the question of race. There are two black Republicans running for the job - Steele, and Ken Blackwell, a former Ohio Secretary of State. Blackwell has the support of the committee's hard core social conservatives, and not many others.

One white candidate, South Carolina chairman Katon Dawson, has a history that makes Republicans nervous:  within the past few years, he was forced to resign from a country club that did not admit blacks.

The current chairman, Mike Duncan, is an amiable technocrat who gets along with everybody. But he's not "change." Duncan is perceived to be the frontrunner if only because of inertia, and because no other candidate has caught fire.
29 Jan 2009 04:47 pm

Young Republicans Want More Open Party, Prefer Steele

Young Republicans feel marginalized and ignored by party leadership, and they're concerned that the current generation of Republican Party standard-bearers have yet to properly balance a conservative ideology with the reality of existence in the 21st century.

A survey conducted for the Young Republican National Federation, which claims more than 10,000 members, finds that the RNC chairman candidates' views on social issues are important to only 6% of the 1,249-person sample. The candidates' positions on the economy and job creation were most in demand, followed by their views on taxes, energy independence and national security. Illegal immigration, a subject of outsize importance to the vocal wing of the party, ranked 8th out of 10; only five percent of the members said that they were curious about how candidates would talk about the subject.

According to a YRNF spokesperson, self-identified social conservatives were well represented in the survey.

In terms of priorities for next RNC head, exploiting advances in social media and technology were high on list, but even more simply, survey participants said they were ignored by the party leadership and hoped that the new RNC chair would integrate young voters into the overall political strategy. 
 
Finally, "not supporting a candidate" outranked any particular candidate, though MD Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, garnered the support of 35% of the sample, followed by Ohio's Ken Blackwell, Current RNC chairman Mike Duncan won 3% of the vote.
29 Jan 2009 02:12 pm

More Republican Triangulating On Bipartisanship: Cantor Responds To White House

House Republicans are reacting strongly to reports that the White House plans a political onslaught to pressure Republicans into supporting the stimulus package and to punish those who don't.

House Republican Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA)  will soon issue a statement contending that Obama's promise to "put an end to petty politics" is "threatened" as the White House and their allies "are making political threats rather than crafting a bipartisan economic stimulus plan."

He'll call on Obama to "immediately disavow" plans by liberal interest groups who have announced their intention to run attack ads against the Republicans. These groups, organized under the Americans United for Change umbrella, coordinate regularly with Congressional Democrats and are in touch with White House officials.

Earlier, an Obama aide said that the White House was not directly involved in these most recent efforts and had not encouraged its allies. The plans were reported in the Politico by its chief political reporter, Mike Allen.

"Let us be clear: attack ads will not create jobs or help struggling families but will only serve to undermine our nation's desire for bipartisanship. Instead of thinking about winning at any cost, we should all be thinking about creating the jobs Americans need," Cantor intends to say.

29 Jan 2009 01:50 pm

Politics Of Stimulus: Tying The GOP To Bush

The Center for American Progress Action Fund is about to release a report advocating a new political tack for Democrats. They're going to tie the GOP alternative proposals to -- yes -- President Bush's now-unpopular agenda. 

CAPAF calls it the "Bush-Boehner-Cantor" Economic Agenda. 

It's the first real pushback by Democrats to the substantive pushback by House Republicans. Lots of pushing back.  Based on this theme, a coalition of labor, liberal and progressive groups will unveil some television advertisements designed to pressure frosh and vulnerable House Republicans. CAPAF notes where the B-B-C team uses the same language as President Bush to describe their proposals -- although, to be fair, criticizing the GOP for wanting an Alternative Minimum Tax fix is questionable.  We'll learn more details on a conference call later today.

bushcomp.JPG

 

29 Jan 2009 12:30 pm

McConnell: GOP Needs A Better Sales Job

Here is the basic diagnosis of what ails the Republican Party from Dr. Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader.  The internal organs are fine. No problem with the composition of the blood that pumps through the party's activist veins. The brain is top-notch -- Republican ideas are well considered, broadly desired, and politically feasible. The body, however, looks ragged; the accent is too...regional (Southern?). The GOP needs to get some exercise. It needs a jot of cologne here, and maybe a hair transplant there.  McConnell subscribes to what might be called the "sales job" theory of Democratic dominance. That is -- the message is fine; the techniques used to communicate it are not. The "sales job" theory is quite attractive to many Republicans because it relieves them of having to question whether Americans, at their corps, are beginning to distrust what the party stands for, what the party does, who the party is. What a relief! All that's need are some cosmetics. Maybe it's Mabeline. McConnell's view is shared by many Republican current office-holders. It is not the view that Republican strategists tend to hold, and it certainly is not the view of the younger conservative intellectuals, like the Atlantic's own Ross Douthat and Reihan Salam. The massive data compiled by Gallup about party identification suggests that the party has an identity problem.

mbvfkqqetkc4fggoe6m5_q.pngOther evidence, including exit polls from 2006 and 2008, locate this problem at a microskeletal level: it cannot deal with globalization, with a flat world, with religious diversity, with institutional decay. Since the 1960s, the GOP's DNA has dutifully replicated activist cells to inflame and attack on culture, and Democratic efforts to minimize the demands and pressure of culture haven't worked. The selection of Sarah Palin got them replicatin' again, but then reality -- in the form of a global economic crisis -- intruded, and Republicans couldn't fight their way out of a plastic bag.   

In his speech to the Republican National Committee today, McConnell offers mostly placebos.

The first task, in my view, is to find the voters who've left the party. As we do this, the temptation for some will be to run from our principles or to dilute our message. I think that's a temptation we need to resist. These people were Republican for a reason. You don't get them back by pretending to something else. And you certainly don't gain voters by running away from the ones that are most loyal. But it's clear our message isn't getting out to nearly as many people as it should. We need to give voters who've turned away a reason to take another look. And that takes a lot of work.

He makes an interesting point about religionism; the sales job is the problem, not the product.

"We all hear a lot about how these things have affected our party in particular. We're all concerned about the fact that the very wealthy and the very poor, the most and least educated, and a majority of minority voters, seem to have more or less stopped paying attention to us. And we should be concerned that, as a result of all this, the Republican Party seems to be slipping into a position of being more of a regional party than a national one. In politics, there's a name for a regional party: it's called a minority party. And I didn't sign up to be a member of a regional party. I know no one in this room did either. As Republicans, we know that commonsense conservative principles aren't regional. But I think we have to admit that our sales job has been. And in my view, that needs to change."

McConnell says that Republicans need to better explain their principles, because "too often we've let others define us. And the image they've painted isn't very pretty. Ask most people what Republicans think about immigrants, and they'll say we fear them. Ask most people what we think about the environment, and they'll say we don't care about it. Ask most people what we think about the family, and they'll tell you we don't -- until about a month before Election Day."

Easier said that done; what, again, are those principles? Who made the decision to run against immigration? Which party decided that global warming was a liberal conspiracy? Who intervened in the Terri Schiavo case?  All of this is to say that Democrats might not be responsible for voters who conclude that Republicans are all these things. The party's leadership, responding to a variety of pressures, chose to follow certain courses of action. The art of marketing had little to do with it.

We need to communicate our ideas to everyone who ran away from the Republican Party in November -- and to many others. And we need to show them that our policies are developed with a human being in view, not just an abstract principle. As we do this, we should avoid the false choice of being a party of moderates or conservatives. America is diverse. The two major parties should be too. But this doesn't mean turning our backs on commonsense conservatism, or tailoring our positions to suit particular groups. Our principles are universal. They apply to everyone.

These principles are what, specifically? And how universal are they? 

Every so often, there comes a time when a political party has to reexamine itself. For Republicans, now is such a time. For some, the work might seem daunting. It shouldn't -- because there are signs that a revival is already taking place.

 McConnell runs down some suggestions.

"Republicans need to explain that when it comes to government spending, it should be limited. And the taxpayer's burden is our first concern, and that we support programs that create the conditions for individuals and families to flourish. On education, we need to explain that inner-city parents have the same rights to a good education for their kids that suburban parents do -- and show them that Republicans will fight this battle until it's won.

 

"Workers need to know that we're not anti-union -- we're pro employee. That means that when it comes to union elections, Republicans will protect a worker's right to a secret ballot. On healthcare, we need to explain to people that the best health care in the world is worthless if people can't afford it -- and that Republican policies will drive down costs.

 

"On energy independence, Republicans need to explain that our approach is the balanced one. If our twin goals are to keep prices low and reduce our dependence on foreign sources of oil, then we need to produce more, conserve more, and invest in the alternative and renewable fuels of the future. The Republican concept of finding more and using less is simple and sensible. People need to know about it. And on the environment, Republicans need to explain that the most effective way to protect the environment is to match our desire to protect it with our desire for prosperity.

The deal here is that none of this language is new. Republicans have been saying these things for years. Back to the Gallup data: voters identify with the Democrats precisely because of what Republicans stood for; because of the choices their party made in the early part of this decade. Who in the party will make the modest suggestion that maybe it's time the party stood for something different?

29 Jan 2009 09:30 am

The Long Tail Of Cooperation

Next week, according to administration officials, the Treasury Department will unveil a plan to buy toxic assets from banks, put them into a repository like the Resolution Trust Corporation held real estate from the S&L crisis), tend to them, securitize them, and hopefully, within a few months, untighten the credit clamp.  What this bank will be called, and how it will be administered isn't yet clear; a White House aide said yesterday that few details would be provided before all the details were worked out.

The new bank relates to the stimulus package in the following way.  The creation of the bank, and the subsequent potential for a new bailout of the housing market, the coming financial market re-regulation, -- all of this requires Republican cooperation. And even if President Obama didn't get Republican votes yesterday, he needs to have Republicans not be in a position to oppose the next phase of economy-saving proposals that he'll unveil. The goodwill he wants to buy extends beyond the stimulus package.

There is a sense among some Democratic officials that yesterday's vote by Republicans was for show; that now, since they've gotten a "no" vote out of their system and showed off to the base or whomever, they'll relalign themselves with the forces of good and light and be willing to support the bill as conferenced in February.
28 Jan 2009 06:29 pm

Republican Discipline

Not a single House Republican voted in favor of the stimulus bill.

It may well be the third inning of nine -- this is a Robert Gibbs analogy -- but it's Democrats who are crowding the plate.


28 Jan 2009 06:25 pm

Holder's Promises On Prosecution

An aide to Eric Holder vociferously denies that the AG nominee offered private assurances to Republican senators about whether the Obama administration would prosecute Bush officials for torture.

The aide pointed to Holder's response in written Q and A from Sen. Jon Kyl:

Kyl: ...in your view, if a government agent has reasonably and in good faith relied on Justice Department assurances that his actions are lawful, do you believe that it would be inappropriate for the Justice Department to commence a criminal investigation of that individual? Or do you instead believe that it is appropriate to investigate such an individual and force him to incur legal fees, but that the Justice Department is unlikely to bring a prosecution because obtaining a conviction could be "exceedingly difficult?"

 

 Holder: Prosecutorial and investigative judgments must depend on the facts, and no one is above the law. But where it is clear that a government agent has acted in "reasonable and good-faith reliance on Justice Department legal opinions" authoritatively permitting his conduct, I would find it difficult to justify commencing a full-blown criminal investigation, let alone a prosecution.

This is not the same thing as saying that prosecution is off-limits. Indeed, Holder isn't in office yet; he doesn't have an active clearance; he doesn't know the evidence; he doesn't know what U.S. attorneys may or may not be working on.   And he doesn't know what evidence might out itself in the future.  That said, it is indeed the Obama administration's preference to move forward while looking back -- and they're not going to take any affirmative steps to seek evidence that might implicate high-ranking Bush officials.   But the wheels of justice churn without fuel from the White House and the AG. 

Obama officials stress that no decisions have been made.
28 Jan 2009 04:30 pm

The Union Rise, Explained

The labor-backed Economic Policy Institute calls the rise in the percentage of union jobs in the country "remarkable" given the current economic climate. Given the collapse of industry in the Midwest, in particular, it's a little jarring.

But it's easily explained, I think.

The increase overall due to an increase in the number of government employees who belong to unions -- and a corresponding slight shrinkage of the private sector relative to the public sector. During a recession, government often cuts jobs later than the private sector does. And -- non-union employees generally have fewer protections against job loss than unionized employees with contracts do. The lowest-hanging fruit in a downturned economy are non-union jobs. I think.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics release on the numbers is worth reading in full.

28 Jan 2009 04:19 pm

2012 Watch: The 90% Governor

As the year progresses, we'll be dropping in on some of the Republicans who will mature into 2012's presidential crop. Today, Gov. Jon M. Huntsman, Jr. of Utah is celebrating his status as the governor of the country's best-managed state, and as the successor to Sarah Palin -- remember when Palin claimed the highest approval ratings among governors in the country?  That distinction belongs to Huntsman, who rates at 90%. 

Huntsman wants to be seen as a conservative problem solver who applies conservative principles to finding solutions to today's issues. He has some foreign policy experience, too, having served as a deputy U.S. trade representative and as ambassador to Singapore -- he speaks fluent Mandarin. From a wealthy and noted LDS church family, Huntsman is personally wealthy and has a great ability to raise money, should he ever find himself needing to raise a lot of money. He hasn't ruled in -- or out -- a 2012 bid. His state-of-the-state address yesterday provides an excuse for a deep-dive into how he sees the world. He certainly has a flair for flourishes, bringing along college football heroes and High School Musical stars to illustrate his points about Utah's toughness and its status as a top movie-making destination.

Here's what the says about health care. It may not register now, but it's a clue about how Republicans will talk about health care in the future.

I'm sorry to have to say it again this year, but skyrocketing healthcare costs are bankrupting businesses and leaving too many Utahns with no options at all.  In a state as compassionate as ours, certainly we can find a better way to cover the uninsured.

I recently visited a public health clinic in St. George. Due to the goodness of volunteer doctors and staff, 10,000 people were seen last year, this in a city of 70,000.  Why?  One out of every seven people in Dixie must go to a volunteer clinic to receive adequate health care?  These people have been completely left out of the healthcare equation; they don't qualify for existing programs, and they can't afford a basic healthcare plan.

So, to Dr. Doxey - who started this volunteer clinic - and the staff there, I say thank you for your humanitarianism.  I assure you and those you serve, we will fix this problem.  We are going to find policies that are affordable, the political will to enact them and, through perseverance, provide a pathway to coverage for everyone.

Therefore, I am asking all involved: doctors, insurance companies, consumers and we in this chamber to close the gap on the uninsured by 2012.
28 Jan 2009 01:00 pm

Twittering From The White House

28 Jan 2009 11:25 am

The RNC Chair Race: The Missing Issue

An RNC rules maven contacted me with the following perspective on the RNC chair race that might explain some of the behind-the-scenes maneuvering.

It has to do with, natch, the presidential primary calendar.

Republican rules for the first time give the members of the Republican National Committee, by a 2/3 vote, the option of adopting a mandatory 2012 state primary election calendar.

States whose legislatures, which may be controlled by Democrats, refuse to schedule a primary that complies with RNC rules face a draconian choice.

Either their party gives up its presidential primary and instead holds (and pays for) a presidential preference caucus -- or the state suffers a loss of 1/2 of its delegates to the 2012 Convention.

Many party leaders, who, for ideological or personal reasons, prefer a low-participation caucus rather than a higher-participation primary, see this Rule as a great opportunity to transform the party. (It would become more conservative.)

And many party leaders in small states have long resented what they perceive as the excessive influence of the larger number of Republican voters in bigger states and would like to force bigger states toward the end of the primary calendar where their voters might have less influence

So -- the key factor in the RNC race is that the Rule must be presented to the RNC by a drafting committee largely appointed by the RNC Chairman and cannot be amended by the RNC membership.

Thus the new RNC Chairman could wield enormous power over the shape of the 2012 Presidential race and the composition of the 2012 convention which could adopt additional rules that would have even more impact on the future of the party.

My correspondent notes:

"Few have publicly discussed this element of the RNC race but some Chairman candidates are believed to have promised spots on the drafting committee in exchange for votes. And there is some discussion about which candidates are stalking horses for a particular presidential candidate. One question RNC candidates have not been asked, is, to whom have they promised drafting committee spots? Have any candidates promised more appointments to the committee than the number of available spots? And under what conditions would each candidate favor forcing a state to abandon its primary for a caucus, or cut its delegation in half?"

Either of these options could disenfranchise millions Republicans.

Think of this way: many voters, ranging from  military personnel fighting overseas to mothers who must stay home to care for children, would likely be disenfranchised by a forced shift from primaries to caucuses, and millions more would be disenfranchised if state convention delegations were cut in half.

My correspondent concludes: "A more basic question might be: Why should the leaders of party which claims to favor federalism and local control want to exercise a power that gives 168 people (actually a 2/3 majority of 112) the right to disenfranchise millions of Republican voters around the country?"
28 Jan 2009 10:58 am

The Political Case For The Stimulus, If You're A Vulernable Republican

Over a 48 hour period when 100,000 job layoffs have been announced, Hill Republicans have decided to take a stand against the stimulus.  

Now - President Obama's approval rating is about 70%;

Congressional approval is still around 20%;

After the election, Democrats still have a 9 point lead in generic identification.

The public approves of the stimulus plan by a very large margin - the numbers vary with the wording of the poll question, but it's at least a plus 40%.

Obama is the most talented political figure of our generation - Boehner and McConnell are, uh, less talented.

Obama's got the megaphone, they've got... 

Republicans are trying to use fiscal discipline as their excuse for opposition, but they whistled away that former strength away over Bush's presidency.

Republicans' notion of stimulus is tax cuts -- but not just tax cuts for those of modest means -- that is, again, they're supporting tax cuts for the wealthier among us - that is, their economic prescription is more Bush economics.

Obama has done everything reasonable, and more, to move toward non-P-partisanship.  The overwhelming impression he's leaving for voters is one of reasonableness and accommodation.

The public is clamoring for Washington to do something, anything. How'd you like to be a Republican member from Michigan or Indiana or Ohio?