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About this Site

The purpose of the Scenario Planning site is to:

• Highlight noteworthy practices and innovative uses of scenario planning in transportation planning applications;
• Announce opportunities for sharing information and experiences with scenario planning such as conferences, meetings, and peer exchanges;
• Highlight Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) scenario planning applications;
• Provide access to resources such as reports; and
• Offer contact information for scenario planning experts at FHWA and in the field.

Why is Scenario Planning important to FHWA?

The Federal Highway Administration is actively encouraging and supporting scenario planning. We believe that scenario planning can help citizens, businesses, and government officials understand the impacts of growth, especially the relationship between transportation and the social, environmental and economic development of regions. This relationship is a two-way street: growth and development affect transportation performance, while transportation affects social, environmental, and economic development.

FHWA sees scenario planning as an enhancement of, not a replacement for, the traditional transportation planning process. It enables communities and transportation agencies to better prepare for the future. Scenario planning highlights the major forces that may shape the future and identifies how the various forces might interact, rather than attempting to predict one specific outlook. As a result, regional decision makers are prepared to recognize various forces to make more informed decisions in the present and be better able to adjust and strategize to meet tomorrow's needs.

FHWA and transportation agencies must continue to explore ways in which GIS can be applied in project areas in order to achieve time and cost savings and enhance stakeholder involvement in transportation projects. Promoting an enterprising and collaborative organizational structure that encourages GIS endeavors is vital to achieving these objectives.

Background of Scenario Planning in Highway Transportation Planning

Transportation Planning

More than any other Federal program, transportation has a strong, well-funded planning process to shape decisions. Transportation planning first appeared in federal transportation legislation 43 years ago, with the Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1962. Metropolitan regions were required, as a condition for receiving federal funding; to adopt long-range transportation plans for entire urban areas and for multiple modes of transportation. The planning required under the Act was to be "continuing, comprehensive, and cooperative."

Over the years, the emphasis on effective transportation planning has been strengthened, through legislation, Federal funding, and guidance and technical assistance from FHWA and the Federal Transit Administration. This has led to the development of regional long range transportation plans for each metropolitan region. Plans are based on projecting demographic, housing, employment and other conditions 20 years into the future. Public involvement, financial feasibility, conformity with air quality standards, consideration of the environment, and intermodal coordination are all key requirements for transportation planning.

Regional transportation planning is a collaborative process, led by the metropolitan planning organization (MPO) and other key stakeholders in the region. The process is designed to foster involvement by all interested parties - businesses, community groups, environmental organizations, and the general public through a proactive public participation process conducted by the MPO in coordination with the State department of transportation and transit operators.

For more on the transportation planning process, check out FHWA's website, or the Transportation Planning Capacity Building website

Transportation planning from a regional context provides the information, tools, and public input needed for improving transportation system performance. Transportation planning should reflect the community's vision for its future, whether it is Charlestown, WV or Charleston, SC. It should include a comprehensive consideration of possible strategies; an evaluation process that encompasses diverse viewpoints; the collaborative participation of relevant transportation agencies; and open, timely, and meaningful involvement of the public.

Transportation planning requires a comprehensive, holistic look at the needs and the future of the region and its inhabitants. Scenario Planning enhances this regional planning process by making participants aware of external forces of change (such as population growth, immigration, economic factors, and aging of the population) and by enabling participants to consider alternative approaches to shaping their future, including especially land use policies, environmental policies, and transportation policies. Inevitably, there are difficult trade-offs, especially relating to land use policies, so public participation is essential to raise people's awareness and foster collaborative thinking that projects the region's future needs and desires. Scenario Planning allows a region to realistically evaluate a wider variety of potential futures and determine what the community wants the future to look like.

Scenario Planning Steps

The premise of scenario planning is that it is better to get the future imprecisely right than to get the future precisely wrong. We know that our predictions of the future are never exactly correct. Rather than picking one definitive picture of the future and planning for that future, scenario planning allows a region to consider various possibilities and identify policies that can adapt to changing circumstances. Scenarios do not describe a forecasted end state. Scenarios are stories about future conditions that convey a range of possible outcomes.

The scenario planning process can help people understand the forces of change and the collective choices they have.

For many, the first step is to identify the quality of life issues facing the region. This information provides the foundation for scenario development. These issues can be expressed as a question about the future that the scenarios might answer. Planners, working in close coordination with community leaders, businesses, local officials, the public and other stakeholders, could undertake the following process:

Research the driving forces. Define the major sources of change that impact the future. These forces can be either predictable or not predictable elements. Some of the relatively predictable elements are local demographics, trends in local land use consumption, levels of congestion, mode split, etc. Less predictable are macro elements such as the world economy, future availability of infrastructure funding, global environmental conditions and technological innovation. There are many other driving forces, which are uncertain. Narrowing down those driving forces will be helpful in advancing a scenario planning process.

Determine patterns of interaction. Consider how the driving forces could combine to determine future conditions. To determine the patterns of interaction between driving forces, a matrix can be developed. On a matrix these driving forces can be identified as either having a positive or negative outcome and their relationship to a dichotomy of potential future worlds can be further examined. For example, if we use economy as a driving force, we can label it as having either little or no growth or fast growth. In determining the interaction of each of the future conditions, scenarios can be created.

Create scenarios. In generating scenarios, planners should think through the implications of different strategies in different future environments. The goal is to bring life to the scenarios in a way that community stakeholders can easily recognize and connect the various components. Basic stories are created based upon the interaction of drivers described in the previous step and how these drivers affect local factors. Scenarios might challenge existing thought patterns.

Analyze their implications. Ultimately, scenario planning is a technique for better decision making, not only about transportation but also about land use, public investment, and environmental policies. The scenarios enable planners to explore the shape and nature of transportation within a variety of circumstances, using a range of tools. Scenario-planning software tools can be used to present scenarios visually. The visualization of the interaction among the forces in each scenario can provide the public and decision makers with information on the consequences of potential actions. The use of graphic visual information assists in helping the public understand the potential impacts of scenarios.

Evaluate Scenarios. The devised scenarios are measured against each other by comparing indicators relating to land use, transportation demographics, environment, economics, technology and other criteria. During large regional public meetings, graphical simulations of alternative scenarios can stimulate project understanding and decision making among stakeholders, including the community, business representatives and local elected officials. Through this process the community can formulate reasoned responses and enhance its ability to respond to change.

Monitor indicators. Scenario Planning is an on-going process for a region. As the future unfolds, reality needs to be assessed compared to the selected scenarios, new scenarios developed and new decisions or policies made to address changing conditions.

To provide Feedback, Suggestions or Comments for this page, contact Frederick Bowers (frederick.bowers@dot.gov)