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Scenario Planning

Resources

CTE National Teleconference Series

March 3, 2005
Scenario Planning for Better Transportation Decision Making
Scenario planning provides a framework for evaluating and testing future alternatives related to the various forces that impact communities. The Federal Highway Administration, Environmental Protection Agency, and other federal agencies are actively promoting its use by state agencies, metropolitan planning organizations, and local governments to enhance the transportation decision-making process involving environmental- and growth-related concerns. This live, two-hour national broadcast featured scenario planning leaders and practitioners who discussed how land-based scenario planning might fit within the context of the metropolitan and statewide transportation planning and decision-making processes. The panel examined lessons learned from three initiatives underway in California, Idaho, and Utah. In addition, the panel discussed the range of available software tools and technical assistance, as well as future research needs. This program included an interactive question and answer session between the panel and national audience. Questions or comments are still being addressed by the panel and other audience members for the next two weeks through CTE's "After The Program" Web-based discussion forum.

Publications

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Scenario Planning Peer Workshop Report - El Paso, Texas (June 4, 2008) New 2/3/2009 This report summarizes a Peer Workshop on tools and effective practices for scenario planning in El Paso, providing participants with an overview of the scenario planning process and described available resources and tools to assist with scenario planning analysis. (PDF, 416KB)

Scenario Planning Peer Workshop Report - Burlington, Vermont (November 2007) This report summarizes a Peer Workshop on tools and effective practices for scenario planning that provided participants with an overview of the scenario planning process and described available resources and tools to assist with scenario planning analysis. Attendees were provided with information on implementing scenario planning in a variety of community contexts. (PDF, 521KB)

Scenario Planning Peer Workshop Report - Fargo, North Dakota (May 2007) The Workshop hosted by MetroCOG in Moorhead, Minnesota provided participants with an overview of the scenario planning process and described available resources and tools to assist with scenario planning analysis. Local planning staffs, elected officials, and consultants joined MetroCOG for a one-day scenario planning workshop. Presenters from the Chittenden County Metropolitan Planning Organization, Community Planning Association of Southwest Idaho (COMPASS), and the Federal Highway Administration provided the group with information on implementing scenario planning in a variety of community contexts. (PDF, 968KB)

Scenario Planning Peer Workshop Report - Frankfort, Kentucky (March 2007) A Peer Workshop on tools and effective practices for scenario planning in Frankfort, Kentucky provided participants with an overview of the scenario planning process and described available resources and tools to assist with scenario planning analysis. Members of metropolitan planning organization (MPO) and area development district (ADD) staffs joined members of the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet staff for a one-day scenario planning workshop in Frankfort, Kentucky. Attendees hailed from across the state and shared their regional perspectives on introducing scenario planning to their planning processes and hear presentations from Florida and a national perspective. (PDF, 353KB)

Scenario Planning Peer Workshop Report - Chico, California (August 2006) In August 2006 a daylong Peer Workshop was held in Chico, California to assist transportation planners from the Butte County Association of Governments, Shasta County Regional Transportation Planning Agency, and Tahoe Regional Planning Agency. Presenters from the FHWA provided participants with an overview of the scenario planning process and described effective practices, available resources and tools to assist with scenario planning analysis. Local presenters discussed population, quality of life, and development trends in their regions which are known for natural resources and prime agricultural lands. Facing development pressure, these agencies are proactively planning for change and growth, and are interested in using scenario planning techniques to do so. (PDF, 308KB)

Scenario Planning Peer Workshop Report - Traverse City, Michigan (July 2006) A Peer Workshop on tools and effective practices for scenario planning was held in Traverse City , Michigan on July 27, 2006. The region faces demographic shifts, as more retirees relocate to the area and the population balance shifts. Presenters from San Luis Obispo Council of Governments (California) and Michigan's Grand Valley Metropolitan Council presented information on their regions' scenario planning efforts, including using real-time feedback to engage stakeholders and both high and low-tech methods for scenario planning. Lively debate ensued in the breakout sessions and discussion periods, focused primarily on stakeholder engagement and incorporating scenario planning into upcoming planning studies in the Traverse City Region. (PDF, 269KB)

Scenario Planning Peer Workshop Report - Monterey, California (June 2006) A Peer Workshop was held to provide participants with an overview of the scenario planning process and described available resources and tools to assist with scenario planning analysis. Local presenters from Association of Monterey Bay Area Governments (AMBAG) discussed population, quality of life, and development trends in the Monterey region, including economic trends the region faces such as unaffordable housing for many of the region's inhabitants. Peers from San Luis Obispo Council of Governments; California, the Puget Sound Regional Council; Washington and the Berkeley-Charleston-Dorchester Council of Governments; South Carolina provided examples and insights of how their region's scenario planning efforts enhanced their planning processes. (PDF, 746KB)

Scenario Planning Peer Workshop Report - Kansas City, Missouri (April 2006) The Mid-America Regional Council (MARC) and the FHWA Kansas Division Office hosted a half-day scenario planning peer workshop at the Midwest Transportation Planners Seminar in Kansas City , Missouri in April 2006 for transportation planners throughout the Midwest . MARC discussed population and development trends in the Midwest as well as MARC's visioning and scenario planning initiative "Creating Quality Places." Scenario planning peer presentations from Binghamton , New York and Albany , New York , provided their perspectives from both upstate New York regions' scenario planning efforts. The peer presentations discussed slow population growth projections, sustainability and quality of life, economic forecasting, and treasured places. (PDF, 589KB)

Public Roads Magazine Article: Scenario Planning A New Paradigm in Transportation Decision Making (September 2005) This new paradigm for decisionmaking is helping communities and States prepare for the future.

Scenario Planning Peer Workshop Report - Mooresville, North Carolina (July 2005) This Peer Workshop brought planning professionals together to talk about tools and effective practices that could be utilized for scenario planning as a way to address growth issues in Mooresville, Iredell County, North Carolina. The Town of Mooresville, the North Carolina Department of Transportation, and the FHWA North Carolina Division Office were among the presenters at the workshop who provided information and facilitated discussion on the scenario planning process. (PDF, 614KB)

Scenario Planning Peer Workshop Report - Champaign, Illinois (June 2005) The following report summarizes a Peer Workshop on tools and effective practices for scenario planning. The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) coordinated and supported the one day workshop. The FHWA Illinois Division Office and the Champaign-Urbana Urbanized Area Transportation Study hosted the event in Champaign, Illinois. Presenters at the workshop provided participants with an overview of the scenario planning process, shared examples of scenario planning efforts from elsewhere in the country, and described available resources and tools to assist with scenario planning analysis. Participants then brainstormed ideas for scenario planning in Champaign County. (PDF, 800KB)

Scenario Planning Peer Workshop Report - Dubuque, Iowa (May 2005) The following report summarizes a Peer Workshop on tools and effective practices for scenario planning. The Workshop was coordinated and supported by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). The FHWA Iowa Division Office and the East Central Intergovernmental Association hosted this one-day workshop in Dubuque, Iowa. Presenters at the workshop provided participants with an overview of the scenario planning process, shared examples of scenario planning efforts from elsewhere in the country, described available resources and tools to assist with scenario planning analysis, and participants then brainstormed ideas for scenario planning in the Dubuque region. (PDF, 318 KB)

Scenario Planning Peer Workshop Report - Orlando, Florida (December 2004) The following report summarizes a Peer Workshop on tools and effective practices for scenario planning. The Workshop was coordinated and supported by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). The FHWA Florida Division Office hosted this one-day forum in Orlando. (PDF, 1MB)

Scenario Planning Peer Workshop Report - Binghamton, New York (June 2004) The following report summarizes a Peer Workshop on tools and effective practices for scenario planning. The Workshop was coordinated and supported by FHWA and was hosted by the Binghamton Metropolitan Transportation Study (BMTS), Binghamton's MPO. (PDF, 199KB)

Scenario Planning Peer Workshop Report - Newport, Rhode Island (June 2004) The following report summarizes a Peer Workshop on tools and effective practices for scenario planning. The Workshop was coordinated and supported by FHWA and was hosted by the Rhode Island Statewide Planning Program (Statewide Planning) - Rhode Island's MPO. The Newport Exchange included presentations by peers from the Sacramento Council of Governments (SACOG) and the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC). (PDF, 216KB)

Scenario Planning Peer Workshop Report - Honolulu, Hawaii (June 2004) The following report summarizes a Peer Workshop on tools and effective practices for scenario planning. The Workshop was coordinated and supported by the FHWA. The FHWA Hawaii Division Office and the Hawaii Local Transportation Assistance Program (LTAP) Center hosted the Forum. (PDF, 228KB)

Overview of Tools

Using a variety of tools and techniques, participants in scenario planning assess trends in key factors. They bring the factors together in alternative future scenarios, each reflecting different trend assumptions and tradeoff preferences. As a result of the process, all members of the region - the general public, business leaders and elected officials - strive to agree on a preferred scenario. This scenario becomes the long-term policy framework for the community's evolution, is used to guide decision-making and can be embodied in the long-range transportation plan.

There are a number of tools available to communities to help them tackle land use, community development, and environmental protection challenges. Here are four broad categories of decision support tools. These categories reflect critical steps of a successful community design and decision-making process-steps that ensure civic engagement and lead to informed decision making.

Information Resources are tools that help communities gather and share important data and information;
Visualization Tools make it easy for people to visualize various scenarios;
Impact Analysis tools ensure good analysis of the implications for various scenarios, and make it easy for the general public to understand these analysis, and;
A Place to meet is a gathering place that promotes participation by and communication among stakeholders.

The following websites provide more detail on the four broad categories of decision support tools:

In addition, FHWA has other resources to assist those who are interested in pursuing scenario-planning applications. These are as follows:

Summary of Analysis Strategies for Measuring Regional Transportation Related Impacts of Growth Management and Land Use Strategies This study summarizes existing modeling tools that measure the impacts of regional transportation on land use and development. The studies identify ways three communities estimated the effects of land use changes on travel patterns, energy use, and emissions. The overall study also looked at ways three communities measured differences in inner urban, suburban, and exurban areas.
FHWA Scenario Planning Tools Presentation [html] (ppt) The FHWA Resource Center has developed this PowerPoint presentation to inform our customers of the various transportation planning decision-making support tools available to assist in scenario planning activities.
FHWA Geographic Information Systems in Transportation FHWA's GIS in Transportation website.

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