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000 FXUS62 KTAE 090706 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 306 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A DE-AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH A BUILDING RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTH. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW AFTERNOONS...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY. A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE OUTPUT HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 90 TO 92 DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME ON MONDAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA OR OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WHERE THE SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATER. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. && .LONG TERM (TUE-SAT)...IT NOW APPEARS THAT ALL OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RATHER SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE...WHICH WILL REPLACE THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (WHICH HAS PROVIDED THE RECENT HOT AND DRY SPELL ACROSS THE CWA) WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF WHICH WILL DIG OVER THE SE U.S. MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY VERY WELL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL REQUIRE A FURTHER UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF SKY AND POPS IN THE GRIDS...ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING LOWERING OF DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPS. && .MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT. SEAS MAY BECOME LOCALLY CHOPPY NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .AVIATION...EXPECT FEWER AND LESS WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT....BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY TEMPO IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE AT AT VLD...TLH...AND ABY TONIGHT....BUT DUE TO INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH CONDITIONS AT PFN AND DHN JUST IN CASE ANY UNSUSPECTING SURPRISES OCCUR. && .FIRE WEATHER...AS LONG AS DISPERSIONS AND TRANSPORT WIND SPEEDS REMAIN LOW...NO FIRE WX CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK DESPITE THE VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPS EARLY ON...SO UNLESS CALCULATIONS COME OUT OTHERWISE...WILL NOT NEED ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THEREAFTER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE WX CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 91 65 92 69 89 / 0 0 10 10 30 PANAMA CITY 85 71 86 71 86 / 0 0 10 10 30 DOTHAN 91 68 90 68 86 / 0 10 10 10 40 ALBANY 91 68 90 67 85 / 0 10 20 10 40 VALDOSTA 91 65 92 67 87 / 0 0 10 10 40 CROSS CITY 89 64 90 66 88 / 0 0 10 10 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ GIBBS/GOULD