000
AXNT20 KNHC 130606
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
FROM 8N9W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 19W...TO 2S23W 3S30W 3S36W AND
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 5S42W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N
BETWEEN 9W AND 46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15W/16W FROM
5N TO 15N WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 100W FROM 14N IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN TO 30N IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE 100W RIDGE REACHES TO AT LEAST 90W. THE MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 90W IS
NORTHWESTERLY...RELATED TO A TROUGH FROM CUBA TO THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC TO CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 101W
AND 104W.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FLOW REGIME MEETS A SEPARATE AREA OF BROAD
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF
HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 15N79W TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE AREA FROM CUBA TO
THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...IN AN AREA
OF BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE POSSIBLE PRESENCE OF THE
ITCZ. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 21N67W TO CENTRAL
PUERTO RICO TO 14N65W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 21N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE U.S.A.
EAST COAST TO THE NORTH OF 32N/33N. A REMNANT MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOST PROBABLY CAME BEFORE THE 32N/33N FEATURE
SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM BERMUDA TO 30N71W...
AND THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES FROM 30N71W TO 30N78W TO
FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W. ANOTHER PART OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG
THE LINE FROM FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W BEYOND 32N89W. A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE AREA FROM CUBA TO THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS...RELATED TO THE STATIONARY FRONT. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 81W...OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND PARTS OF FLORIDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N45W. CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS FROM
12N TO 30N BETWEEN 35W AND 61W.
$$
MT
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130343
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 13 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG POINTS 09N82W TO 07N92W TO 09N112W TO
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 07N77W TO 07N90W TO
09N97W...AND WITHIN 150 NM OF 11N112W AND 5N137W.
...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE W BOUNDARY OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N140W TO 24N138W INTO A DEVELOPING UPPER
CYCLONE AT 24N136W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING E TO ANOTHER
CYCLONE AT 19N127W. THIS SYSTEM IS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESS BLOCKED BY AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 24N127W. UPPER MOISTURE IS
NOTED OVER THE AREA FROM 24N TO 33N BETWEEN 139W AND 130W...
OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE
TROUGH AXIS ALONG 140W AND OVER THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA FROM
10N TO 22N BETWEEN 142W AND 120W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH HAS
SWUNG SE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION ALONG 32N115W TO 28N125W AND
ABOUT TO MERGE WITH YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH FROM 32N103W TO
27N122W. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 108W AND
122W.
A SECOND UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 14N98W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
N TO OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A THIRD UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER
VENEZUELA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W OVER THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC
TO A SHARP CREST AT 09N88W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 20N80W TO 16N88W TO 09N93W SEPARATING THE
TWO ANTICYCLONES. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W AND 115W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED
N OVER OLD MEXICO BETWEEN 97W AND 112W. CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ IS ALSO ENHANCED BETWEEN 91W AND 80W WITH SOME OF THE
DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADING NE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW
CARIBBEAN TURNING E AND CONTINUING E ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS.
AT THE LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS SE ALONG 32N133W TO 17N106W.
NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE NE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA N OF
23N E OF 130W TO THE BAJA COAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR
ABOUT 24 HOURS THEN THE N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT. A SMALL AREA OF NE TRADES TO 20 KT
ARE OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE FROM 09N TO 15N W OF 127W AND
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THU.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP...NE WINDS IN THE W CARIBBEAN ARE
OCCASIONALLY SURGING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20
KT...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING LATE AT NIGHT TO MID MORNING. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH THU.
$$
NELSON
000
AXNT20 KNHC 122340
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 1N32W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 40W EXTENDING TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. NO
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CONVECTION ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL DATA DEPICTS
ENHANCED CYCLONIC VORTICITY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH
INLAND ACROSS W AFRICA FROM 19N9W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 10N12W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS WELL E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER SW MALI AND IS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE NE GULF AND NRN FLORIDA WHICH IS SUPPORTING WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SE GULF DELINEATED BY A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA INTO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR PORT
CHARLOTTE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THIS LOW ALONG THE
SWRN FLORIDA COAST TO WITHIN 15/30 NM E OF KEY WEST. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG THE NRN GULF
COAST FROM APALACHICOLA BAY WWD TO ERN LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE GULF...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM THE N/CENTRAL GULF SW TO TUXPAN MEXICO. E TO SE WINDS OF
10-15 KT ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN GULF WITH WINDS
REACHING 20 KT ALONG THE S TEXAS COAST.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN...WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE...AND A
TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND EPAC...SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N INCLUDING
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA IN THE VICINITY OF A
1008 MB LOW CENTERED OVER WRN PANAMA. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIALLY
MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FOUND OVER THE NEARBY E PACIFIC
WATERS SW OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE ITCZ IS AN ENHANCING MECHANISM. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS RESULTING IN FRESH ELY
TRADE WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WHERE E
TO NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING. POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THESE SHOWERS
WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN THAT EXTENDS FROM 15N64W TO N OF ERN PUERTO RICO NEAR
20N66W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER SAINT CROIX...THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND ERN PUERTO RICO CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK
CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N41W IS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE ATLC PORTION
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OBSERVED. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING W ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE GREATEST OF THESE SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN TO 20N66W AND THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM
15N59W TO 21N67W. ALSO...ATMOSPHERIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE W ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT FROM 32N67W TO 31N71W THEN CONTINUING AS
A STATIONARY FRONT INTO A 1018 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N78W AND TO
THE ERN FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST NEAR MELBOURNE. NE WINDS TO 20
KT ARE PRESENT N OF THE FRONT...AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS
THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY AS IT TRACKS NW
TOWARD THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG AND WITHIN
90 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRESENT WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 11N20W
TO 3N50W WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 5N33W. ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
ITCZ.
$$
HUFFMAN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122151
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 12 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG POINTS 09N82W TO 08N87W TO 12N104W TO
05N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W AND
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N94W TO 10N115W AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N123W TO 05N140W.
...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE W BOUNDARY OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N140W TO 16N130W WITH ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESS BLOCKED BY AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 23N131W. UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER
THE AREA FROM 23N TO 34N BETWEEN 138W AND 132W...OTHERWISE DRY
UPPER AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG
140W AND CONTINUES SE OVER THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 09N
TO 22N BETWEEN 145W AND 120W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH HAS SWUNG SE
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION ALONG 32N117W TO 28N127W ACCOMPANIED
BY DRY UPPER AIR WITHIN 120 NM OF ITS AXIS.
A SECOND UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 15N100W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING N TO OVER W TEXAS. A THIRD UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER
VENEZUELA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W OVER THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC
TO A SHARP CREST AT 09N86W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 20N80W TO 11N92W SEPARATING THE TWO
ANTICYCLONES. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND 116W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N
OVER OLD MEXICO BETWEEN 98W AND 118W. CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ
IS ALSO ENHANCED BETWEEN 91W AND 78W WITH SOME OF THE DEBRIS
MOISTURE SPREADING NE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW
CARIBBEAN TURNING E NEAR 15N77W TO BEYOND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
AT THE LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS SE ALONG 32N131W TO 17N106W.
NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE NE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA N OF
23N E OF 130W TO THE BAJA COAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR
A COUPLE OF DAYS. A SMALL AREA OF NE TRADES TO 20 KT ARE
OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE FROM 09N TO 15N W OF 127W AND EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH THU.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP...NE WINDS IN THE W CARIBBEAN ARE
OCCASIONALLY SURGING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20
KT...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING LATE AT NIGHT TO MID MORNING. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH THU.
$$
NELSON
000
AXNT20 KNHC 121730
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N21W 1N32W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 41W EXTENDING TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 14W-17W...FROM 3N-5N
BETWEEN 19W-23W...AND FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 34W-36W. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ENHANCED CYCLONIC VORTICITY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE EASTERNMOST AREA OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...
WHICH LIKELY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION W OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA HAS FORCED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO SURGE S FROM
SARASOTA FLORIDA TO NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADAR TRENDS DEPICT THIS FEATURE WELL...BUT IT IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE. A QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 11/1130
UTC SHOWS N TO NE 10-15 KT WINDS NE OF THE FRONT. THIS LOW IS
LIKELY BEING DRIVEN BY A WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING SW
FROM THE W ATLC. THIS UPPER FORCING IS ALSO PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE FAR NE WATERS. E TO SE FLOW
AND MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION ON THE S/SW PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND NWLY FLOW ALOFT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CARIBBEAN...WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE CARIBBEAN
RIDGE...AND A TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND EPAC...SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
12N INCLUDING ADJACENT PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIALLY MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FOUND OVER
THE NEARBY E PAC WATERS S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...WHERE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ IS AN ENHANCING FACTOR.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS
RESULTING IN FRESH E TRADE WINDS. THESE FRESH E TRADE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FOUND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WHERE NE TO E 20-25 KT WINDS
ARE OCCURRING. POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE BEING ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THESE SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN THAT EXTENDS FROM
15N63W TO E OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N64W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT IN THE VICINITY
OF THIS TROUGH. ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE
CARIBBEAN...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF 1026 MB SURFACE HIGHS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE ATLC PORTION OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE ARE RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ATLC PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...
POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING W
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. THE GREATEST OF THESE
SHOWERS IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A RATHER
DISORGANIZED SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 20N64W TO 18N64W.
THIS TROUGH IS MOVING W NEAR 15 KT AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
LOSE ITS ORGANIZATION WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
DECREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE. ALSO...ATMOSPHERIC LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE W ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT FROM 31N75W TO A 1016 MB SURFACE LOW
NEAR 30N79W TO THE E FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N81W. NE WINDS TO
20 KT ARE PRESENT N OF THE FRONT...AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ACROSS THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY AS IT
TRACKS NW TOWARD THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT. ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRESENT WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 12N14W TO 2N48W WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 4N35W.
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION.
$$
COHEN/CANGIALOSI
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121547
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 12 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG A LINE FROM 08N78W TO 08N87W TO 12N102W TO 05N132W TO
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM S OF
AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE
WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 115W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH PERSISTING MAINLY N OF 15N AND W OF 120W...AN UPPER RIDGE
OFF ACAPULCO MEXICO NEAR 14N100W...AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING NE TO SW FROM HONDURAS TO ROUGHLY 08N90W. DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W
AND 115W. SIMILARLY DIVERGENT FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 81W AND 84W...AND 87W AND 89W. IN
ADDITION...A RESIDUAL LINE OF CONVECTION IS EVIDENT OFF THE
MEXICAN COAST FROM ACAPULCO TO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...ENHANCED BY NORTHERLY DIVERGENT FLOW BETWEEN THE
UPPER ANTICYCLONE AND THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST.
FURTHER SOUTH...A 12Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT FLOW
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE RESULT OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WIND FLOW FILTERING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN...WITH THE ADDED
IMPACT OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE COSTA RICAN MOUNTAINS. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REAPPEAR
WED MORNING. TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH STARTING TOMORROW...ALLOWING THE PAPAGAYO WINDS TO
DIMINISH AS WELL.
OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST...SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW
20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW...BETWEEN THE COAST AND A 1026 MB SURFACE
HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 38N130W. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD
DOWN THE BAJA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A RENEWED
ROUND OF NORTHERLY SWELL TO 10 FT OFF THE FAR NORTHERN BAJA
COAST.
$$
CHRISTENSEN
000
AXNT20 KNHC 121028
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 33W AND CONTINUES TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-7N BETWEEN 12W-14W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 20W-28W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 33W-36W...
AND FROM 1S-4S BETWEEN 21W-25W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR
27N83W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO THE LOW CENTER TO SE
LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W. PRECIPITATION NEAR THE FRONT HAS RECENTLY
DISSIPATED OVER FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NE MEXICO FROM
25N-27N BETWEEN 98W-100W. WINDS S OF THE FRONT REMAIN 10-15 KT
FROM THE SE. A PATCH OF OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S BAY
OF CAMPECHE S OF 19N. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUD HAS
ADVECTED OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W FROM N MEXICO. FAIR SKIES
PERSIST OVER THE SE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
MOVING INTO THE W GULF W OF 90W PRODUCING NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND CLOUDINESS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE SE GULF.
EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO DRIFT TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 79W-86W. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 19N65W TO 13N60W. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA N OF 15N AND
E OF 74W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
PRODUCING SW-W FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 77W-79W. A LARGE
1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N43W PRODUCING
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO 28N65W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-65W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N42W. IN THE TROPICS
...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 4N35W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING W TO 4N55W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER N
FLORIDA TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.
$$
FORMOSA
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120948
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 12 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 08N78W TO 09N100W TO 06N127W TO 05N140W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS E OF 115W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF
AXIS FROM 122W TO 130W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90
NM OF AXIS W OF 138W.
...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N122W TO WEAK CYCLONE
AT 01N104W BRINGS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM LOW LATITUDES
UP NORTH TO S HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. BROAD AND
HEALTHY RIDGE CENTERED AT 15N103W BRINGS SWATH OF MOISTURE E
INTO CENTRAL MEXICO FEEDING IT TO THERMAL LOW PRES TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEAT.
WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRES 1026 MB AT 34N136W HAS RIDGE EXTEND
N OF 15N W OF 105W. RIDGE DRIFTING E INCREASING STRONG WINDS
ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST TO GALE FORCE WITHIN 24 HRS AND CAUSE
ANOTHER EPISODE OF N SWELL ENCROACHING INTO E PAC BASIN N OF 26N
E OF 120W.
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 124W FROM 04N TO 11N HAS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ BUT SUSTAINS LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES W INTO AREA OF DRY AIR MASS AND
UNFAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT.
$$
WALLY BARNES
000
AXNT20 KNHC 120521
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 27W AND CONTINUES TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 31W-34W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4S BETWEEN 20W-25W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR
30N82W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO 31N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND IN
THE VICINITY OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA FROM 30N-31N BETWEEN 86W-87W.
A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N87W.
5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THE HIGH. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF CONTINUES TO HAVE 10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW.
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEATHER DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
ARE OVER THE SURROUNDING LAND MASSES FROM MEXICO TO LOUISIANA TO
FLORIDA WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE GULF.
EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO MOVE TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT
CONTINUED SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 79W-84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA
FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 88W-90W. ELSEWHERE...RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA N OF 15N
AND E OF 74W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
PRODUCING SW-W FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...A SURFACE TROUGH TO
TRAVERSE THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SHOWERS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ALONG THE COAST OF N FLORIDA FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 80W-81W...AND
FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 75W-80W. A LARGE 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N40W PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 61W FROM 15N-20N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 55W-65W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N42W. IN THE TROPICS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 4N35W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO 4N55W.
EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER N FLORIDA TO DRIFT SE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.
$$
FORMOSA
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120343
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAY 12 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO
06N110W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 07N87W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
POINT 10N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 08N112.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO POINTS 05.5N125W
AND 03N134W.
...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA EAST OF
95W. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH MULTI LEVEL
OVERCAST CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM THE ITCZ NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA EAST OF 85W. THIS MOISTURE EMANATES FROM ENHANCED ITCZ
CONVECTION WHICH HAS DIMINISHED IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
A MUCH LARGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 17N123W.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CIRCULATION IS ANOTHER EXTENSIVE AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH MULTI LEVEL OVERCAST CLOUDS THAT
EXTENDS EAST OF A LINE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR
27N112W TO 15N117W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 115W...THE AREA EXTENDS EAST
TO ABOUT 95W. ENHANCED CONVECTION IS WITHIN THIS AREA SOUTH OF
15N AND THE MOISTURE EMANATES FROM THIS CONVECTION INCLUDING
CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. FROM THE ITCZ TO 25N WEST OF THIS
AREA OF MOISTURE THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. NORTH OF 25N THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS ARE SOMEWHAT MOIST BUT ARE STILL CLOUD FREE.
REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE A FLAT HIGHT
PATTERN.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 105W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS NEAR 122W/123W FROM 11N TO 06N. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ BUT IT NOW
APPEARS THAT THE TROUGH IS MOVING WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION...HOWEVER SOME CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60
NM OF THE TROUGH BUT SHOWS NO SIGN OF ORGANIZATION. REMAINDER OF
THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD TROUGH.
GAP NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WILL
OCCASIONALLY REACH 20 KT MAINLY IN THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
$$
LL
000
AXNT20 KNHC 112350
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 34W EXTENDING TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. NO
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
W TO NW MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS ERN TEXAS. THIS TROUGH IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOCATED 60/90 NM INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SKIRTING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NRN GULF COAST
AND DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING AS IT
MOVES E-SE AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
ELSEWHERE...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ZONE AS
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE
GULF WITH AN EMBEDDED 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N86W. GIVEN
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE OBSERVED OVER
MUCH OF THE ERN AND MIDDLE WATERS AND E TO SE 10-15 KT WINDS ARE
LOCATED OVER A PORTION OF THE WRN WATERS...DUE TO A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER
MEXICO. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE NE
GULF.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL VENEZUELA NW TO HONDURAS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EPAC...ALONG WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS SOUTH OF
PANAMA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 12N. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA IS RESULTING IN FRESH ELY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE BASIN. THESE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF UP TO 25 KTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N47W IS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE ATLC PORTION
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING W ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW N
ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 15N60W TO 21N59W. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING W NEAR 15
KT TOWARD THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
THE NRN WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOW WINDS BACKING TO A NELY DIRECTION
WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE AS INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST FOR THE NE CARIBBEAN AND ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. ALSO...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 32N23W
27N31W 24N44W 16N53W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS W-SW TO 25N31W. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRESENT S OF 10N W OF 20W...WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 4N35W. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ.
$$
HUFFMAN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112114
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 11 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO
06N110W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100
NM OF THE POINT 06N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N84W TO 05N87W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE
AREA FROM 08N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 93W TO 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 07N110W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT
13.5N113.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF
THE POINT 04N134W.
...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA EAST OF
95W. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH MULTI LEVEL
OVERCAST CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM THE ITCZ NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA EAST OF 86W. THIS MOISTURE EMANATES FROM ENHANCED ITCZ
CONVECTION.
A MUCH LARGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 17N123W.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CIRCULATION IS ANOTHER EXTENSIVE AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH MULTI LEVEL OVERCAST CLOUDS THAT
EXTENDS EAST OF A LINE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR
28N112W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 119W...THE AREA EXTENDS EAST TO ABOUT
95W. ENHANCED CONVECTION IS WITHIN THIS AREA SOUTH OF 15N AND
THE MOISTURE EMANATES FROM THIS CONVECTION INCLUDING CONVECTION
WITHIN THE ITCZ. FROM THE ITCZ TO 25N WEST OF THIS AREA OF
MOISTURE THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVELS. NORTH OF 25N THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE
SOMEWHAT MOIST BUT ARE STILL CLOUD FREE.
REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE A FLAT HIGHT
PATTERN.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 105W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS NEAR 119W FROM 13N TO 05N. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ BUT IT NOW
APPEARS THAT THE TROUGH IS MOVING WEST OF THE CONVECTION.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD TROUGH.
GAP NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WILL
OCCASIONALLY REACH 20 KT MAINLY IN THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
$$
LL
000
AXNT20 KNHC 111725
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N22W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 37W EXTENDING TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 17W-21W...S OF 4N
BETWEEN 21W-34W...AND S OF 1N BETWEEN 41W-44W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
W TO NW MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...
THOUGH IT IS BEING PERTURBED SLIGHTLY BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALONG
87W/88W. THIS TROUGH IS NOT MUCH OF A WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE
GULF...BUT IT IS ENHANCING TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE SE CONUS. IN
FACT...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ZONE. A SFC
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF WITH
AN EMBEDDED 1019 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED JUST OFF THE TAMPA COAST.
THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
E AND MIDDLE WATERS AND E TO SE 15-20 KT WINDS OVER A PORTION OF
THE WRN WATERS...DUE TO THE TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER MEXICO. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXTENDING NW
FROM AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 2N55W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EPAC IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N W OF
78W. HOWEVER...THE LARGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER
THE PACIFIC WATERS S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ IS PRESENT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE N OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS RESULTING IN FRESH E TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE FRESH E TRADE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FOUND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WHERE NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO
25 KT ARE OCCURRING.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N46W IS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE ATLC PORTION
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT DAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR 32N40W AS A 1027 MB
SURFACE HIGH AT 12/1200 UTC. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE ARE RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
HOWEVER...POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE MOVING W ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. THE GREATEST
OF THESE SHOWERS IS LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
RATHER DISORGANIZED SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 20N57W TO
14N58W. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING W NEAR 15 KT TOWARD THE LEEWARD
AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THOSE LOCATIONS
DURING THE NEXT DAY WITH INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. ALSO...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E
ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N28W TO 28N19W TO 32N13W TO NE OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS COLD FRONT. ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRESENT S OF 13N E OF
43W...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 4N35W. ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION.
$$
CANGIALOSI/COHEN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111530
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAY 11 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS ALONG 06N77W TO 10N97W TO 10N115W TO 03N130W TO
05N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF
AXIS E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 100W
AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
BETWEEN 110W AND 115W.
...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N125W TO 11N119W.
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
IS FOSTERING A WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE ITCZ FROM
14N115W TO 06N119W...ALONG WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW A SWATH
OF N TO NE 20 KT WINDS MAINLY N OF 22N BETWEEN 125W AND
135W...ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA
CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 34N137W. LONG PERIOD SWELL UP TO
11 FT OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH
THIS SWELL WILL DECAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
WILL MOVE EAST...INCREASING THE SQUEEZE PLAY ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND USHERING A NEW ROUND OF NORTHERLY SWELL
ALONG THE BAJA COAST WED.
E OF 110W...DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 14N100W...WITH
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST ALONG 90W...FROM GUATEMALA
TO NEAR THE EQUATOR. DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THROUGH IS
ENHANCING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST S OF THE
ITCZ. ITCZ CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING FED BY 15 TO 20 KT CROSS
EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY FLOW...ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS
LIMITING CONVECTION BETWEEN 85W AND 100W. A 12Z QUIKSCAT PASS
SHOWS 20 KT FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS IS A RESULT
OF A COMBINATION OF STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADES FUNNELING THROUGH
THE PASSES IN NORTHERN COSTA RICA...AND MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW
OFF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS
DRAINAGE FLOW ABATES AND SEAS BREEZE INFLUENCES TAKE
CONTROL...BUT SHOULD REAPPEAR OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
THROUGH MID WEEK.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOMEWHAT TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1025 MB
HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 34N137W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH SW ARIZONA. THIS IS ENHANCING
GRADIENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THAT ALONG
WITH MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW...MAY ALLOW 20 KT SW WINDS OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT HOWEVER...KEEPING WINDS
BELOW 20 KT.
$$
CHRISTENSEN
000
AXNT20 KNHC 111059
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 4N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 32W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
5W-7W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 18W-23W...AND
FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 26W-28W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL FROM 3S-8S
BETWEEN 34W-40W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE N GULF
STATES WITH CONVECTION. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 28N84W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED
AROUND THE HIGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CONTINUES TO HAVE
10-15 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO CONTRIBUTING
TO THE FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT...CONTINUED FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SE FLOW OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE N GULF STATES.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA
FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 73W-80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS INLAND OVER PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE...RAIN AND
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA N OF 15N AND E OF 74W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW-W FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N48W. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN
57W-70W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 32N13W 29N18W 27N24W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONT. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 19N56W 13N56W MOVING W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N64W.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FURTHER E BETWEEN 20W-55W. IN THE
TROPICS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 6N36W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO 8N60W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE E ATLANTIC TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.
$$
FORMOSA
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110947
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAY 11 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 06N78W TO 08N114W TO 05N124W TO 06N130W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS E OF 91W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM S OF
AXIS FROM 100W TO 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 118W.
...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N124W TO POORLY
DEFINED WEAK CYCLONE AT 02N104W. AREA OF DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN
TROUGH AND BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM AT 14N100W ENHANCES DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG INTERSECTION OF ITCZ AND WEAKENING SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 117W. LARGE PLUME OF MOIST CONVECTION DEBRIS HEADS
N TRAPPED BETWEEN TROUGH AND RIDGE FEEDING THERMAL LOW PRES
ALONG CENTRAL MEXICO AND PROMPTING CONVECTION OVER DAYTIME
HEATED AREAS OF MEXICO.
HIGH PRES CENTER 1025 MB AT 33N138W WEAKENS AT FIRST DIMINISHING
WINDS ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA HENCE SUBSIDE NORTHERLY SWELLS
ENCROACHING ALONG W OF BAJA PENINSULA...THEN MOVING E BY EARLY
WED FORCING NEW TRAINS OF MODERATE SWELLS N OF 28N E OF 120W.
$$
WALLY BARNES
000
AXNT20 KNHC 110531
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 32W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 10W-12W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN
17W-20W...AND FROM EQ-1N BETWEEN 39W-42W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NE
BRAZIL FROM 4S-8S BETWEEN 33W-38W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE N GULF
STATES WITH CONVECTION. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 28N85W. FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
ARE NOTED AROUND THE HIGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CONTINUES
TO HAVE 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A SMALL AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM
19N-20N BETWEEN 91W-92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO THE
FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT...CONTINUED FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SE FLOW OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE N GULF STATES.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM
3N-10N BETWEEN 73W-77W. VERY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND
BELIZE. ELSEWHERE...RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA N OF 15N AND E OF 74W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW-W FLOW
OVER THE CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N45W. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN
57W-70W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS ALONG 32N14W 29N20W 29N25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM S OF THE FRONT. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 19N54W 13N54W MOVING W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
SAHARAN DUST HAS ALSO SPREAD FROM EQ-20N E OF 40W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N64W.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FURTHER E BETWEEN 20W-55W. IN THE
TROPICS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 6N36W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO 8N60W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE E ATLANTIC TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.
$$
FORMOSA
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110343
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAY 11 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE LIES ALONG A LINE FROM 06N77W
TO 07N105W TO 04N125W TO 06N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 07N81.5W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE
POINT 07.5N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 04.5N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 03N TO 05N FROM 122W TO 128W.
...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA EAST OF A
LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W TO THE
ITCZ NEAR 98W. THE AREAS IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT AND SUPPORTS
ENHANCED CONVECTION MOSTLY IN THE ITCZ AND OVER THE DAYTIME
HEATED AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE THE CONVECTION IS
DIMINISHING DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE RESULTING MULTI
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION ARE ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 21N121W AND COVERS
AN AREA WEST OF 105W NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO A LINE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO FROM NEAR 30N105W TO 25N125W TO THE ITCZ NEAR
125W. MOST OF THIS AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVELS EXCEPT FOR THE AREA EAST OF 115W WHERE MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED. THE MOISTURE EMANATES FROM ENHANCE
CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ NEAR 115W. THE CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED BY
BOTH DIFFLUENT AIR ALOFT AND BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 115W FROM 10N TO 03N.
THIS MOIST AIR IS FLOWING ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL MEXICO EXCEPT
FOR THE PART SOUTH OF 20N. CLOUDS ARE NOT PRESENT IN THIS MOIST
FLOW AS IT MOVES FROM THE OCEAN TO THE CONTINENT BUT CONVECTION
IS DEVELOPING AS THE AIR FLOWS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL
AND MULTI LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS ADVECTING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS OF MEXICO.
A SMALLER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED BEAR 26N132W AND IS
MOVING NORTHEAST ABOUT 20 KT. LITTLE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE.
REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS UNDER BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 120W WITH A
WEAKER RIDGE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 11N WEST OF 105W. EXCEPT FOR THE
SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED ELSEWHERE.
EASTERLY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE 15 TO 20 KT WITH BRIEF WINDS OF 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE HIGHER WINDS SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE DURING
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
$$
LL
000
AXNT20 KNHC 102348
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 36W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. A CLUSTER OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 14W-18W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SUBSIDENCE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
ARE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THIS STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS
BEING SUPPORTED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF TO CENTRAL MEXICO. A
1021MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 28N86W.
THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY BUT WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE GULF. ALOFT...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ADVECTING UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
GULF...WHERE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. POCKETS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N. LOW LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE
COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N
W OF 77W. ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN...ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1025 MB NEAR 30N49W
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE 24
HOURS. POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC
RIDGE. A CLUSTER OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 51W-56W. THE 2000 UTC
SFC OBSERVATION FROM A BUOY IN THE REGION SHOWS A DISTINCT NE-SE
WIND SHIFT...INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE AREA. FURTHER EAST...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N22W ALONG
28N29W TO 30N35W. SCATTERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRESENT S OF 10N E OF 56W...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH NEAR 6N35W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ.
$$
WADDINGTON
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102119
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAY 10 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE LIES ALONG A LINE FROM 06N77W
TO 06N105W TO 04N125W TO 06N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 05N TO 07N FROM 90W
TO 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
OF THE POINT 06N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 03N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 03N TO 05N FROM 121W TO 127W.
...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA EAST OF A
LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W TO THE
ITCZ NEAR 106W. THE AREAS IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT AND SUPPORTS
ENHANCED ITCZ CONVECTION MOSTLY IN THE ITCZ AND OVER THE DAYTIME
HEATED AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA/ THE RESULTING MULTI LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION IS ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.
A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 20N119W AND COVERS
AN AREA WEST OF 106W NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO A LINE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO FROM NEAR 30N105W TO 25N125W TO THE ITCZ NEAR
125W. MOST OF THIS AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVELS EXCEPT FOR THE AREA EAST OF 115W WHERE MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED. THE MOISTURE EMANATES FROM ENHANCE
CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ NEAR 115W. THE CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED BY
BOTH DIFFLUENT AIR ALOFT AND BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 11N113W TO 03N119W. THIS
MOIST AIR IS FLOWING ACROSS MOST OF MEXICO EXCEPT FOR THE PART
SOUTH OF 20N AND FROM 100W TO THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. CLOUDS
ARE NOT PRESENT IN THIS MOIST FLOW BUT CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
AS THE AIR FLOWS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL.
A SMALLER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED BEAR 26N133W AND IS
MOVING NORTH ABOUT 20 KT. LITTLE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE.
REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS UNDER BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 120W WITH A
WEAKER RIDGE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 11N WEST OF 105W. EXCEPT FOR THE
SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED
ELSEWHERE.
EASTERLY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO OCCASIONALLY BE 20 KT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHER
WINDS SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
$$
LL
000
AXNT20 KNHC 101721
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 3N19W 1N28W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 37W EXTENDING TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 4W-6W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF 6N BETWEEN 11W-29W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS S OF 2N BETWEEN 49W-51W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SUBSIDENCE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
ARE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS
BEING SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE N GULF THAT EXTENDS
WESTWARD FROM A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...AS WELL AS
A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE N GULF NEAR 29N85W. DURING THE
NEXT DAY...THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE N GULF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STATIONARY AND BE A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH AT 11/1200 UTC.
THE SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE RESULTING
IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
REGION. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE W GULF...WHERE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVERAGE IS INCREASING. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGHS AND SURFACE RIDGE IS RESULTING IN
SE SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF.
HOWEVER...NE TO E SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF DURING THE NEXT DAY.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS RESULTING IN
FRESH E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE FRESH E
TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND NEAR THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA...WHERE NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OCCURRING.
THE TRADE WINDS ARE ADVECTING POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF THESE SHOWERS IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 63W-67W.
ALSO...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS
RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN
76W-84W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...PANAMA....AND NW
COLOMBIA. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE E AND S CARIBBEAN.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N49W IS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE ATLC PORTION
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR 30N48W AS
A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH AT 11/1200 UTC. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH AND SURFACE RIDGE ARE RESULTING IN
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...WITH THE GREATEST OF THESE
SHOWERS S OF 25N BETWEEN 73W-80W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N82W TO 26N78W TO 29N75W. ALSO...A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE E ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM
30N35W TO 30N29W TO 32N21W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS
COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING W OF 24W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS
COLD FRONT. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
PRESENT S OF 11N E OF 57W...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 7N38W.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ.
$$
COHEN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101523
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAY 10 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1300 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE LIES ALONG A LINE FROM 07N77W
TO 07N97W TO 09N108W TO 05N125W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 82W TO
85W....WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 87W TO 100W...WITHIN 75 M N
OF AXIS FROM 93W TO 95W....AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS W OF 131W.
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TO 50 KT AROUND 110W TO 115W IS
DIRECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS UPPER JET IS WEDGED BETWEEN A
WEAKENING UPPER LOW NEAR 22N119W AND AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR
14N100W. WITHIN 600 NM SW QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW IS MARKED BY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WHILE THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE IS INTERCEPTING
SOME OF THE NORTHWARD MOVING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A
SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 12N111W TO 04N116W
COINCIDES WITH THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER JET. THE TROUGH POSITION IS EVIDENT IN THE 1352 QUIKSCAT
PASS. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE
FOUND BETWEEN 04N AND 07N E OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 110W AND
WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS WELL AS W OF THE TROUGH
FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W. THE JET WILL NUDGE
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW TO ITS WEST WEAKENS AND JOINS
WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NW WATERS...LEAVING A
BROAD NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER FORECAST WATERS W OF
100W MON. THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO NUDGE WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE DISRUPTION OF THE DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW
OVER W CENTRAL WATERS BY THIS TROUGH...IN ADDITION TO THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN N OF FORECAST WATERS...HAS CAUSED THE TRADE
WINDS TO DIMINISH.
TO THE S OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N100W LIES AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 00N92W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO 09N87W.
CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES IS INHIBITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 100W TO 110W. FARTHER E...DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS
ANTICYCLONE AND THE ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA HAS
ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA N OF THE ITCZ.
OVER NE WATERS...DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS CAN BE FOUND ALONG
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN THE VICINITY OF THE CALIFORNIA
CURRENT. OFFSHORE...20 KT N WINDS ARE EVIDENT ON THE ASCAT PASS
FROM 0556 UTC N OF 24N BETWEEN 123W AND 130W. THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE
SW U.S. AND NW MEXICO AND THE 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
34N134W WILL WEAKEN OVER FORECAST WATERS...ALONG WITH THE
WINDS...AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS FARTHER N ALONG THE CA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING NORTHERLY SWELL TO NE WATERS.
GAP WINDS...THE 1214 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS DOWNWIND OF
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAVE REACHED 20 TO 25 KT. THE RETURN OF
STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN HAS ALLOWED EASTERLY FLOW
TO BLEED THROUGH NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA.
WHILE THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW WILL LIKELY PULSE...WITH A
MAXIMUM IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN 20 KT AND ABOVE HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
$$
SCHAUER CLARK
000
AXNT20 KNHC 101026
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 36W EXTENDING TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 4W-2E. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 10W-15W...AND FROM 3N-5N
BETWEEN 16W-23W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 28N85W. FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE
NOTED AROUND THE HIGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CONTINUES TO
HAVE 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF
CONTRIBUTING TO THE FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT...CONTINUED FAIR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SE FLOW OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE N GULF STATES.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA FROM
7N-12N BETWEEN 82W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
BELIZE FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 88W-90W. ELSEWHERE...RAIN AND
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA N OF 17N AND E OF 74W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW-W FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT...LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N49W. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN
57W-70W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 34N20W 32N25W
31N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST HAS ALSO SPREAD FROM EQ-20N
E OF 55W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N69W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FURTHER E
BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE TROPICS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 6N42W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO 8N60W.
EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE E ATLANTIC TO BE JUST W OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.
$$
FORMOSA
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101005
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAY 10 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 08N86W TO 09N109W TO 05N116W TO 07N130W TO
07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS E
OF 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM
OF AXIS FROM 110W TO 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS E OF 130W.
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 22N118W REMAINS BLOCKED FROM
MOVING E BY LARGE ANTICYCLONE AT 14N100W. BETWEEN BOTH THESE
FEATURES A BROAD SWATH OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE
INTO MEXICO WHERE THERMAL TROUGH TURNS IT INTO CONVECTION WITH
THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE SWATH CONTINUES INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS FEEDING COLD FRONT MOVING SE.
AT THE SURFACE...
QUICKLY WEAKENING HIGH PRES CENTER 1028 MB AT 34N135W FORCED E
BY APPROACHING COLD FRONT NOW ALONG 145W. THIS DECREASES AREA
COVERAGE OF TRADE WINDS TO W OF 135W AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENS
TRADES BELOW 20 KT WITHIN 24 HRS. GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 32N HAS
ALSO DIMINISH AND N SWELLS ENCROACHING INTO E PAC SUBSIDE
GRADUALLY THROUGH NEXT TWO DAYS.
WEAK LOW PRES SURFACE TROUGH FROM 11N110W TO 04N115W ATTRACTING
FRESH SE-S WINDFLOW ALONG WITH MODERATE SWELL TRAINS OBSERVED
S OF 06N FROM 107W TO 130W. TROUGH WEAKENS AND SWELLS SUBSIDE
WITHIN 24 HRS.
GAP WINDS...RETURN OF STRONG TRADE WINDS IN WRN CARIBBEAN
PROMPTED BY 1008 MB LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA ALLOW FOR ELY FLOW TO
SEEP THROUGH NRN COSTA RICA AND SRN NICARAGUA INTO GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...WITH FRESH BREEZE BEGINNING LATER TODAY.
$$
WALLY BARNES
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