Latest Seasonal Assessment - Moderate to heavy rains eased drought impacts across the central Gulf Coast, the Southeast outside the Florida Peninsula, the middle Atlantic region, and parts of the southern Plains over the last few weeks, helping to bring numerous wildfires under control across western Oklahoma and northern Texas. Other drought-affected parts of the country saw conditions persist during this period, with some expansion and deterioration noted in a few areas. The Drought Outlook through the end of July 2009 is generally pessimistic in western sections of the country, with the likelihood of improvement increasing farther east. Mid-April precipitation should reduce impacts of the moderate drought in the mid-Atlantic region and the interior Southeast, and typical seasonal increases in precipitation should bring improvement to the Florida Peninsula and the Great Lakes region later in the forecast period. Across the southern Plains, where the most serious drought conditions are currently entrenched, heavy rainfall in some areas during the last half of April and typically wetter May-July conditions should bring improvement to most areas, though recovery in far southern and southwestern Texas may be less robust. Farther west, odds favor drier than normal May-July conditions and therefore persisting drought across the interior West, and the low precipitation amounts typical of this time of year along the Pacific Coast and in Hawaii should keep drought intact across those areas as well.

Forecaster: R. Tinker

Next Outlook issued: May 7, 2009 at 8:30 AM EDT