| Accession Number | 5005306 |
| Title | Modeling, estimation, and adaptive management of manatees |
| Project Description | Managers making decisions about the endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus |
| latirostris) need to be able to integrate multiple sources of data into their decision process. To do |
| this, they need models of population dynamics, tools for statistical estimation of life-history |
| parameters, and an adaptive framework for this integration.To assess status, evaluate trends, and |
| make predictions about the effects of management actions, managers need synthetic models for |
| manatee population dynamics. We will develop stage-structured, stochastic population models for |
| the four manatee sub-populations, incorporating appropriate expressions of uncertainty about the |
| structure and parameters of the models. We will work with management agencies to use these |
| models for status assessment, population viability analysis, and evaluation of potential |
| management actions.A critical aspect of effective model development is having unbiased and |
| precise estimates of life-history parameters in the model. We will continue to develop new |
| statistical tools for analysis of manatee data, and work with other manatee scientists to |
| implement the best analytical tools available to estimate key population parameters.While there |
| are many sources of data about manatee ecology and population dynamics, managers have not |
| had a comprehensive framework for integrating this monitoring data into their decision processes. |
| We will develop applications of adaptive management for manatee management problems. Two |
| applications have already been identified:(1) Manatees have shown a strong biotic response to |
| environmental change, by using power plant effluents to extend their winter range northward. With |
| the anticipated changes in the power industry brought about by deregulation, and the possible |
| closing of a number of aging once-through-cooling plants, there is concern about how manatees |
| will respond to this new change in their environment. The Manatee Warm-water Task Force is |
| seeking to develop an adaptive structure for reducing uncertainty and evaluating potential |
| management actions. We will guide the development of this adaptive framework, build models to |
| support it, and advise agencies on integrated monitoring design.(2) The Fish and Wildlife Service, |
| under the Marine Mammal Protection Act, is obligated to promulgate rules regarding incidental |
| take of manatees resulting from government activities related to watercraft and watercraft access |
| facilities. We will develop models to determine a biologically sound level of human-related effects |
| that meet the ônegligible impactö standard, and will work with FWS to embed this model in an |
| adaptive framework for assessing and evaluating management decisions related to this issue |
| Keywords | adaptive management, estimation, manatee, negligible impact, population viability analysis, power |
| industry, stochastic population model, |
| Principal | Michael C Runge, USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center: michael_runge@usgs.gov; William L |
| Investigators | Kendall, USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center: william_kendall@usgs.gov; James D Nichols, |
| USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center: jim_nichols@usgs.gov; |
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