![[logo] US EPA](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/eot2008/20090507183842im_/http://www.epa.gov/epafiles/images/logo_epaseal.gif){kind=logo}
Global Change
Site Navigation
Recipients and their Research Results
Meetings, Workshops and Reviews
 |
Research Project Search
Scientists have observed a warming trend across the Earth since the late 19th century, with the most rapid warming occurring over the past two decades. If emissions of greenhouse gases continue unabated, some scientists say humans may change global temperature and the planet’s climate at an unprecedented rate. However, many questions remain about the cause, pace and consequences of these changes.
NCER’s STAR program is working towards EPA’s research goal of understanding the possible consequences of global change on human health, ecosystems and social well-being.
The purpose of the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) is to provide scientific information to stakeholders and policy makers in order to support them as they decide whether and how to respond to the risks and opportunities presented by global change.
Over the next decade, the GCRP plans a series of research and assessment activities culminating (in FY 2010) in a multi-sector, multi-region assessment in the consequences of global change in the U.S.
The emphasis of the GCRP's research and assessment strategy is on understanding the risks and opportunities presented by global change, the interdependent and interactive effects of multiple stresses, the human dimensions of global change (human activities that catalyze as well as those that respond to global change), and adaptation options.
The program has four focus areas of emphasis: (1) human health, (2) ecosystem health, (3) air quality, and (4) water quality.
NCER focuses on advancing the science to support assessments of the consequences of global change and human dimensions research. Current plans focus on the impacts of global change on air quality and on ecosystems.
Ecosystem Health Focus Area
The EPA Global Change Research Program conducts assessments of the effects of global change on aquatic ecosystems (freshwater and coastal) and their services. Global change impacts on aquatic ecosystems are understood by the development and application of methods that link global change to local changes in the physical, chemical, biological and ecological conditions in selected watersheds. Assessments are conducted in the context of other stressors and human dimensions (social, economic and technological drivers) to improve society’s ability to respond and adapt to the future consequences of global change. Global change includes climate variability and change, land use change. "Ecosystem services" describes both the conditions and the processes through which ecosystems sustain and fulfill human life. Ecosystem services maintain biodiversity, produce goods, and perform life-support functions.
The academic and stakeholder communities recognize the impact of global changes on aquatic ecosystems as an important area for research and assessment because of the goods and services that these ecosystems supply. Research gaps broadly include a need to understand how global change stressors affect the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of aquatic ecosystems and their services, and how specific human adaptive responses will affect environmental outcomes. Thus, predictive models and climate change scenarios integrated with other process models that incorporate multiple stressors, are designed to support projections of future ecosystem status, and examine feedbacks between human and ecological responses. GCRP is addressing several of these needs including:
- Landscape planning models that ascertain impacts of development on a changing landscape.
- Terrestrial and aquatic natural ecosystem responses to multiple stresses, including the consequences for productivity, biodiversity, and other ecosystem processes and services.
- Interactions of climate, UV, land cover, and land use in nutrient cycling, water supply and quality, and runoff.
- Models of ecosystem disturbance, and species dispersal and recruitment.
The Ecosystem Focus Area long-term goal is that "decision makers in the states and EPA regional and program offices will use scientific information and decision tools from EPA's research and assessment program to protect aquatic ecosystems by adapting to global change". Ecosystem assessments support multiple EPA strategic goals, including: Goal 4: Healthy Communities and Ecosystems. Likewise, assessments support EPA’s Office of Water in fulfilling their responsibilities under the Clean Water Act whose goal is to "restore and maintain the chemical, physical and biological integrity of the Nation’s waters".
Improving air quality is a major goal of the Agency and there is increasing recognition that climate and air quality are closely coupled through atmospheric chemical, radiative, and dynamic processes. While few studies have explicitly investigated the effects of global change on air quality, available evidence raises concerns that global change could adversely affect air quality. These studies suggest that global change could have significant impacts on ambient air quality. Changes in meteorology may affect air pollution levels by altering 1) rates of atmospheric chemical reactions and transport processes; 2) anthropogenic emissions, including adaptive responses involving increased fuel combustion for power generation (e.g. increased use of air conditioning); and 3) biogenic emission rates from natural sources. Patterns of land use can influence biogenic and anthropogenic emissions (e.g., increased urban sprawl may result in higher emissions from transportation sources or construction that lead to fugitive dust).
One of the long-term goals of EPA's GCRP is that air quality managers and decision makers in the states and EPA regional and program offices will use scientific information and models from EPA's research and assessment program to evaluate and implement adaptation policies that protect air quality from the impacts of global change. This goal will be accomplished through a series of projects building towards an ability to analyze the relationship between global changes and air quality. To address this issue, the GCRP is conducting a scenario-based assessment of the potential consequences of global change on regional US air quality, focusing on fine particles and ozone. The continuing research builds towards a 2007 assessment of changes in US air quality due to climate change, which includes direct meteorological impacts on atmospheric chemistry and transport and the effect of temperature changes on air pollution emissions. Further research will result in a 2010 assessment that adds the emission impacts from technology, land use, and demographic changes to construct plausible scenarios of US air quality 50 years into the future.
Air Quality Focus Area
Improving air quality is a major goal of the Agency and there is increasing recognition that climate and air quality are closely coupled through atmospheric chemical, radiative, and dynamic processes. While few studies have explicitly investigated the effects of global change on air quality, available evidence raises concerns that global change could adversely affect air quality. These studies suggest that global change could have significant impacts on ambient air quality. Changes in meteorology may affect air pollution levels by altering 1) rates of atmospheric chemical reactions and transport processes; 2) anthropogenic emissions, including adaptive responses involving increased fuel combustion for power generation (e.g. increased use of air conditioning); and 3) biogenic emission rates from natural sources.
Patterns of land use can influence biogenic and anthropogenic emissions (e.g., increased urban sprawl may result in higher emissions from transportation sources or construction that lead to fugitive dust).
One of the long-term goals of EPA's GCRP is that air quality managers and decision makers in the states and EPA regional and program offices will use scientific information and models from EPA's research and assessment program to evaluate and implement adaptation policies that protect air quality from the impacts of global change. This goal will be accomplished through a series of projects building towards an ability to analyze the relationship between global changes and air quality. To address this issue, the GCRP is conducting a scenario-based assessment of the potential consequences of global change on regional US air quality, focusing on fine particles and ozone. The continuing research builds towards a 2007 assessment of changes in US air quality due to climate change, which includes direct meteorological impacts on atmospheric chemistry and transport and the effect of temperature changes on air pollution emissions. Further research will result in a 2010 assessment that adds the emission impacts from technology, land use, and demographic changes to construct plausible scenarios of US air quality 50 years into the future.