Climate Monitoring / Climate of 2006 / November / Global / Help

Climate of 2006 - November in Historical Perspective

Including Boreal Fall

National Climatic Data Center
18 December 2006

Global Analysis / Global Hazards / United States / U.S. Drought / Extremes
Use these links to access detailed analyses of Global and U.S. data.

Global Highlights:

Based on preliminary data, globally averaged combined land and sea surface temperature was fourth warmest on record for November 2006 as well as for boreal fall (September - November 2006) and sixth warmest for January-November year-to-date.
September - November temperatures were above average in Europe, southern Asia, eastern Russia, and western Alaska. Cooler-than-average conditions occurred in Siberia, the central U.S., and western Canada.
Precipitation during September - November was above average in western Alaska, the eastern U.S., most parts of Europe, southern parts of South America, and southern India. Drier than average conditions were observed in eastern Asia, central Europe, eastern Australia and the west coast of Canada.
Warm phase ENSO (El Niño) conditions remained during November.

The data presented in this report are preliminary. Ranks and anomalies may change as more complete data are received and processed. The most current data may be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

Introduction

Temperature anomalies for September - November and November 2006 are shown on the dot maps below. The dot map, below left, provides a spatial representation of anomalies calculated from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) data set of land surface stations using a 1961-1990 base period. The dot map, below right, is a product of a merged land surface and sea surface temperature anomaly analysis developed by Smith and Reynolds (2005). Temperature anomalies with respect to the 1961-1990 mean for land and ocean are analyzed separately and then merged to form the global analysis. Additional information on this product is available.

Anomalously warm temperatures have covered much of the globe throughout the year. The January-November 2006 year-to-date map of temperature anomalies shows the presence of warmer than average temperatures across all land areas except central Russia. Warmer than average SSTs occurred in the North and South Atlantic, North Pacific and the South Indian Ocean, with cooler than average conditions observed in the South Pacific.

During boreal fall, temperatures were above average across the entire globe, with the exception of Siberia, the central U.S., and western Canada, where cooler than average temperatures were observed. Warmer than average SSTs were observed across all oceans except in the South Pacific where cooler than average SSTs were observed.

Current season's Land Surface Temperature Dot map

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Current season's blended Land and sea surface Temperature Dot map

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During November, there were above average temperatures across the U.S., Europe, southern Asia, and eastern Russia. Cooler than average temperatures were observed in Siberia, Turkey, southern Alaska, and western Canada. Warmer than average SSTs occurred in the North Atlantic and the Niño 3 and 1+2 regions. Temperatures in much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific were more than 1°C (1.80°F) above average, and the average temperature in the Niño 3.4 region increased in November to approximately 1.21°C (2.18°F). Please see the latest ENSO discussion for additional information on the developing El Niño event.

Current month's Land SurfaceTemperature Dot map

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Current month's blended Land and sea surface Temperature Dot map

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The mean position of upper level ridges of high pressure and troughs of low pressure (depicted by positive and negative 500-millibar height anomalies on the September - November 2006 map and the November map) are generally reflected by areas of positive and negative temperature anomalies at the surface, respectively. For other Global products see the Climate Monitoring Global Products page.

Images of sea surface temperature conditions are available for all weeks during 2006 at the weekly SST page.

Temperature Rankings and Graphics

Effective with the January, 2006 report, NCDC transitioned from the use of the Operational Global Surface Temperature Index (Quayle et al. 1999) to the blended land and ocean dataset developed by Smith and Reynolds (2005). The differences between the two methods are discussed in Smith et al. 2005.

November:
November 2006 was the 4th warmest November since global surface records began in 1880 for global land and ocean surface temperatures. November land surface temperatures were 6th warmest, while ocean surface temperatures were 2nd warmest in the 127-year record behind 1997 in which a very strong 1997/1998 El Niño event was developing.

September - November:
For September - November 2006, the global land and ocean surface temperatures were 4th warmest on record. Land surface temperatures ranked 5th warmest, while ocean surface temperatures ranked 3rd warmest for the boreal fall. The year-to-date (January - November 2006) land and ocean combined temperature was tied for 6th warmest on record.

Current Month / Seasonal / Year-to-date

November	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest Year on Record
Global Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.74°C (+1.33°F) +0.52°C (+0.94°F) +0.58°C (+1.04°F)	6th warmest 2nd warmest 4th warmest	2004 (+1.40°C/2.52°F) 1997 (+0.54°C/0.97°F) 2004 (+0.73°C/1.31°F)
Northern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.81°C (+1.46°F) +0.66°C (+1.19°F) +0.72°C (+1.30°F)	7th warmest 1st warmest 4th warmest	2001 (+1.73°C/3.11°F) 2004 (+0.59°C/1.06°F) 2004 (+0.96°C/1.73°F)
Southern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.56°C (+1.01°F) +0.40°C (+0.72°F) +0.42°C (+0.76°F)	9th warmest 7th warmest 9th warmest	1982 (+1.45°C/2.61°F) 1997 (+0.55°C/0.99°F) 1997 (+0.58°C/1.04°F)

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September-November	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest Year on Record
Global Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.75°C (+1.35°F) +0.50°C (+0.90°F) +0.57°C (+1.03°F)	5th warmest 3rd warmest 4th warmest	2005 (+1.15°C/2.07°F) 1997 (+0.54°C/0.97°F) 2005 (+0.64°C/1.15°F)
Northern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.74°C (+1.33°F) +0.64°C (+1.15°F) +0.68°C (+1.22°F)	5th warmest 1st warmest 4th warmest	2005 (+1.27°C/2.29°F) 2003 (+0.63°C/1.13°F) 2005 (+0.82°C/1.48°F)
Southern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.75°C (+1.35°F) +0.39°C (+0.70°F) +0.44°C (+0.79°F)	6th warmest 6th warmest 5th warmest	1997 (+0.85°C/1.53°F) 1997 (+0.55°C/0.99°F) 1997 (+0.59°C/1.06°F)

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January-November	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest Year on Record
Global Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.73°C (+1.31°F) +0.45°C (+0.81°F) +0.52°C (+0.94°F)	6th warmest 5th warmest 6th warmest	2005 (+0.98°C/1.76°F) 1998 (+0.50°C/0.90°F) 2005 (+0.61°C/1.10°F)
Northern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.80°C (+1.44°F) +0.49°C (+0.88°F) +0.60°C (+1.08°F)	5th warmest 4th warmest 5th warmest	2005 (+1.03°C/1.85°F) 2005 (+0.55°C/0.99°F) 2005 (+0.73°C/1.31°F)
Southern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.54°C (+0.97°F) +0.42°C (+0.76°F) +0.44°C (+0.79°F)	7th warmest 4th warmest 5th warmest	2005 (+0.86°C/1.55°F) 1998 (+0.51°C/0.92°F) 1998 (+0.55°C/0.99°F)

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The most current data may be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

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Precipitation

The maps below represent anomaly values based on the GHCN data set of land surface stations using a base period of 1961-1990. During September - November 2006, above average precipitation was observed in Scandinavia, Turkey, eastern Europe, southern India, western Alaska, eastern U.S., and southern parts of South America. Below average precipitation was observed in areas including eastern Australia, eastern Asia, central Europe, and the west coast of Canada.

During November 2006, above average precipitation fell over areas that included northeastern and northwestern U.S., eastern Brazil, most parts of Scandinavia, and eastern Asia. Heavy rain and flooding occurred in the Greater Horn, where it is said to be the worst in 50 years. Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Northwest U.S. have as well experienced heavy rain and flooding. Below average precipitation was observed in eastern Australia, where the effects of long term drought continue. Southern Europe and central U.S. were also drier than average. Additional details on flooding and drought can also be found on the November Global Hazards page.

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Precipitation Dot map in Millimeters for November

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ENSO SST Analysis

Last week of the month's ENSO condtions Map

Click here for animated loop

Sea Surface Temperatures continued to increase across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during November, indicative of a strengthening El Niño episode (shown in the adjacent animation of weekly sea surface temperature anomalies). A comprehensive summary of November 2006 ENSO conditions can be found on the ENSO monitoring page. For the latest advisory on ENSO conditions go to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
Images of sea surface temperature conditions are available for all weeks during 2006 at the weekly SST page

Troposphere

Current Month / Year-to-date
Temperatures above the Earth's surface are measured using in-situ balloon-borne instruments (radiosondes) and polar-orbiting satellites (NOAA's TIROS-N). The radiosonde and the satellite records have been adjusted to remove time-dependent biases (artificialities caused by changes in radiosonde instruments and measurement practices as well as changes in satellite instruments and orbital features through time).

The radiosonde data used in this global analysis were developed using the Lanzante, Klein, Seidel (2003) ("LKS") bias-adjusted dataset and the First Difference Method (Free et al. 2004) and maintained as part of the Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate. Satellite data have been adjusted by the Global Hydrology and Climate Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). An independent analysis is also performed by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) and a third analysis has been performed by Dr. Qiang Fu of the University of Washington (UW) (Fu et al. 2004)** to remove the influence of the stratosphere on the mid-troposphere value. Global averages from radiosonde data are available from 1958 to present, while satellite measurements began in 1979.

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Radiosonde measurements indicate that for the January-November year-to-date period, temperatures in the mid-troposphere (approximately 2 to 6 miles above the Earth's surface) were 0.58°C above average being the 3rd warmest January-November since global measurements began in 1958. However, as shown in the table below, satellite measurements of the January-November 2006 year-to-date period for the middle troposphere varied from 6th to 7th warmest on record depending on the analysis method.

Although the rankings from satellite measurements are lower than the in-situ radiosonde measurements for 2006 year-to-date, the 1979-2006 trends from the radiosonde measurements (0.15°C/decade) are similar to those calculated from satellite observations (0.13°C and 0.19°C/decade), as shown in the table below. The 1958-2006 mid-troposphere trend from radiosonde observations is 0.15°C/decade. (The UAH analysis is unavailable this month.)

Note: These temperatures are for the atmospheric layer centered in the mid-troposphere (approximately 2-6 miles above the Earth's surface) which also includes a portion of the lower stratosphere. (The MSU channel used to measure mid-tropospheric temperatures receives about 25 percent of its signal above 6 miles). Because the stratosphere has cooled due to increasing greenhouse gases in the troposphere and losses of ozone in the stratosphere, the stratospheric contribution to the tropospheric average, as measured from satellites, may create an artificial component of cooling to the mid-troposphere temperatures. The University of Washington (UW) versions of the UAH and RSS analyses attempt to remove the stratospheric influence from the mid-troposphere measurements, and as a result the UW versions tend to have a larger warming trend than either the UAH or RSS versions. For additional information, please see NCDC's Microwave Sounding Unit page.

January- November	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest Year on Record	Trend
*RSS mid-trop	+0.18°C/0.32°F	7th warmest	1998 (+0.54°C/0.97°F)	+0.13°C/decade
*UW-RSS mid-trop	+0.28°C/0.50°F	6th warmest	1998 (+0.66°C/1.19°F)	+0.19°C/decade
RATPAC	+0.58°C/1.04°F	3rd warmest	1998 (+0.75°C/1.35°F)	+0.15°C/decade

*Version 02_1

The November 2006 mid-troposphere rankings were also warmer than average as shown in the table below.

November	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest Year on Record	Trend
*RSS mid-trop	+0.13°C/0.23°F	10th warmest	2002 (+0.32°C/0.58°F)	+0.12°C/decade
*UW-RSS mid-trop	+0.25°C/0.45°F	7th warmest	2005 (+0.44°C/0.79°F)	+0.18°C/decade

*Version 02_1

Stratosphere

Current Month / Seasonal
The table below summarizes stratospheric conditions for November 2006. On average, the stratosphere is located approximately between 10-14 miles above the Earth's surface. Over the last decade, stratospheric temperatures have been below average in part due to the depletion of ozone and the atmospheric increase in greenhouse gases. The large positive anomaly in 1982 was caused by the volcanic eruption of El Chichon in Mexico, and the sharp jump in temperature in 1991 was a result of the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. Temperatures returned to pre-eruption levels within two years.

November	Anomaly	Rank	Coolest Year on Record
UAH stratosphere	-0.64°C (-1.15°F)	4th coolest	2000 (-0.87°C/-1.57°F)
*RSS stratosphere	-0.61°C (-1.10°F)	4th coolest	2000 (-0.84°C/-1.51°F)

*Version 02_1

September-November	Anomaly	Rank	Coolest Year on Record
UAH stratosphere	-0.58°C (-1.04°F)	4th coolest	2000 (-0.78°C/-1.40°F)
*RSS stratosphere	-0.59°C (-1.06°F)	4th coolest	2000 (-0.71°C/-1.28°F)

*Version 02_1

For additional details on precipitation and temperatures in November, see the Global Hazards page.

References

Christy, John R., R.W. Spencer, and W.D. Braswell, 2000: MSU Tropospheric Temperatures: Dataset Construction and Radiosonde Comparisons. J. of Atmos. and Oceanic Technology 17 1153-1170.

Free M., D.J. Seidel, J.K. Angell, J. Lanzante, I. Durre and T.C. Peterson (2005) Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate (RATPAC): A new dataset of large-area anomaly time series, J. Geophys. Res., 10.1029/2005JD006169.

Free, M., J.K. Angell, I. Durre, J. Lanzante, T.C. Peterson and D.J. Seidel(2004), Using first differences to reduce inhomogeneity in radiosonde temperature datasets, J. Climate, 21, 4171-4179.

Fu, Q., C.M. Johanson, S.G. Warren, and D.J. Seidel, 2004: Contribution of stratospheric cooling to satellite-inferred tropospheric temperature trends. Nature, 429, 55-58.

Lanzante, J.R., S.A. Klein, and D.J. Seidel (2003a), Temporal homogenization of monthly radiosonde temperature data. Part I: Methodology, J. Climate, 16, 224 240.

Lanzante, J.R., S.A. Klein, and D.J. Seidel (2003b), Temporal homogenization of monthly radiosonde temperature data. Part II: Trends, sensitivities, and MSU comparison, J. Climate, 16, 241 262.

Mears, Carl A., M.C. Schabel, F.J. Wentz, 2003: A Reanalysis of the MSU Channel 2 Tropospheric Temperature Record. J. Clim 16, 3650-3664.

Peterson, T.C. and R.S. Vose, 1997: An Overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network Database. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2837-2849.

Quayle, R. G., T. C. Peterson, A. N. Basist, and C. S. Godfrey, 1999: An operational near-real-time global temperature index. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 333-335.

Smith, T. M., and R. W. Reynolds (2005), A global merged land air and sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880-1997), J. Clim., 18, 2021-2036.

For all climate questions other than questions concerning this report, please contact the National Climatic Data Center's Climate Services Division:

Climate Services Division
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fax: 828-271-4876
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For questions about this report, please contact:

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NOAA/National Climatic Data Center
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fax: 828-271-4328
email: Jay.Lawrimore@noaa.gov

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fax: 828-271-4328
email: David.Easterling@noaa.gov

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