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Connectivity in Marine Seascapes: Predicting Ecological and Socioeconomic Costs of Climate Change on Coral Reef Ecosystems

EPA Grant Number: R832223
Title: Connectivity in Marine Seascapes: Predicting Ecological and Socioeconomic Costs of Climate Change on Coral Reef Ecosystems
Investigators: Sanchirico, James N. , Broad, Kenneth , Brumbaugh, Dan , Hastings, Alan , Micheli, Fiorenza , Mumby, Peter J.
Institution: Resources for the Future , American Museum of Natural History , Stanford University , University of California - Davis , University of Exeter , University of Miami
EPA Project Officer: Jones, Brandon
Project Period: March 1, 2005 through February 29, 2008
Project Amount: $749,087
RFA: Effects of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services Provided by Coral Reefs and Tidal Marshes (2004)
Research Category: Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Global Climate Change , Aquatic Ecosystems

Description:

Objective:

This project seeks to integrate theory and data from ecology, biology, and the social sciences to address major questions about the potential consequences of climate change on coral reef ecosystems. The researchers will establish a general framework starting at the habitat scale that is linked with population biology and socioeconomic models. This structure will allow systematic exploration of several core questions, including: (1) How do local impacts including overfishing and mangrove deforestation affect the vulnerability of Caribbean coral reefs to climate change? (2) When do socioeconomic responses to changes in the ecosystem triggered by climate change stressors exacerbate the vulnerability of coral-reef ecosystems to future stressors? and (3) What are the critical ecological and/or socioeconomic uncertainties for predicting climate change impacts on ecosystem services that will yield the greatest returns from investigation? In all questions, ecosystem services will be measured through the effects on fisheries, biodiversity, and social/cultural systems.

Approach:

We will develop an integrated ecological-socioeconomic model that will be representative of Caribbean ecosystems and be formulated in discrete time and space. Data for estimating ecological and socioeconomic response functions are already being collected by this team in an ongoing NSF funded Biocomplexity project. This unique data set will allow us to highlight and measure the effects of local processes that are typically averaged out in more aggregate climate change models. The model will include explicit spatial processes, such as larval and adult/juvenile dispersal and movements of fishers, along with dynamic adjustment responses to predict the vulnerability of coral-mangrove ecosystems to climate change stressors. Given the large uncertainties in both the nature of the relationships and measurement, we undertake a value of information analysis to learn about the impacts of “reducing” uncertainties on various ecological and socioeconomic criteria.

Expected Results:

Taking advantage of ongoing model development and data collection analysis of Caribbean coral-reef ecosystems, our goals are to develop a new understanding of changes in ecological services due to climate stressors, provide a framework for evaluating different management scenarios on ecosystem services, and highlight mechanisms where climate stressors can cascade through the ecological and socioeconomic systems triggering responses that increase the vulnerability of the ecosystem.

Publications and Presentations:

Publications have been submitted on this project: View all 34 publications for this project

Journal Articles:

Journal Articles have been submitted on this project: View all 11 journal articles for this project

Supplemental Keywords:

bioeconomics, ethnography, aquatic, public policy, mathematics , Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Air, Scientific Discipline, RFA, climate change, Aquatic Ecosystems & Estuarine Research, Ecological Risk Assessment, Air Pollution Effects, Atmosphere, Aquatic Ecosystem, Chemistry, Monitoring/Modeling, Environmental Monitoring, coral reef communities, meteorology, climate model, Global Climate Change, socioeconomics, ecosystem indicators, tidal marsh, coastal ecosystems, climatic influence, habitat preservation, climate models, sea level rise, aquatic ecosystems, atmospheric chemistry, climate variability, coral reefs, environmental measurement, environmental stress, global change, ecosystem stress, ecological models, climate, global climate models

Progress and Final Reports:
2005 Progress Report
2006 Progress Report

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The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.

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