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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on May 5, 2009
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Print Version | Day 1 Outlook | Day 2 Outlook | Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info
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Please refer to local WFO fire weather forecasts for specific fire
weather watches and red flag warnings.
Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)
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| D3 | Thu, May 07, 2009 - Fri, May 08, 2009 |
D6 | Sun, May 10, 2009 - Mon, May 11, 2009 |
| D4 | Fri, May 08, 2009 - Sat, May 09, 2009 |
D7 | Mon, May 11, 2009 - Tue, May 12, 2009 |
| D5 | Sat, May 09, 2009 - Sun, May 10, 2009 |
D8 | Tue, May 12, 2009 - Wed, May 13, 2009 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
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ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 050846
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT TUE MAY 05 2009
VALID 071200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE DAY 3-8 FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
FAST NRN STREAM WITH SMALL AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN.
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE FROM VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODEL MEMBERS DISPLAY
SIMILAR UPPER AIR PATTERNS...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREAS WILL NOT BE
ASSIGNED AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...SEVERAL POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER SCENARIOS EXIST...AND MAY BE GIVEN AN OUTLOOK AREA DURING
LATER FORECASTS.
ON THURSDAY/DAY 3...MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE AN OUTLOOK AREA DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF A HOT/DRY SURFACE AIRMASS. ON FRIDAY/DAY 4...THE HOT/DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF NM AND FAR
W TX...W OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER WRN TX. DETERMINISTIC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS INDICATE NEAR CRITICAL SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS MAY DEVELOP...BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE OVERALL
PROBABILITY REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CHANGES
LITTLE DURING DAYS 5 AND 6...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RESIDING OVER
SW TX ON DAY 5...AND THEN SAGGING SOUTH /PER MREF GUIDANCE/ INTO
MEXICO ON DAY 6. VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST W OF THE
LOW OVER NM AND AZ ON DAY 5...BUT FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE WEAK. A LARGE TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO
DIG/AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS ON DAYS 7 AND 8...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS E...FAVORING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. INCREASING MODEL
VARIABILITY AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD ARE INDICATED DURING THIS LATER TIME
PERIOD...LEADING TO SUBSTANTIAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
..GARNER.. 05/05/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
$$
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
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