Future Vulnerability
In selecting between alternative plans, it is useful to be able
to compare the likely outcomes of each plan. We cannot predict the
future, but available models do allow us to estimate the likely
distribution of environmental vulnerability in the future based on
decisions made today. For example, the future distribution of
stresses on aquatic biodiversity can be estimated based on land use
change models and current species distribution information. This map
shows the distribution of areas that both have high species
diversity today and are likely to experience increased human
development.
All land use change models have some degree of uncertainty. One
way to estimate probability of change is to use a "weight of
evidence" approach, as we have done here. This graphic shows where
different models of land use change agree: watersheds where 4-5
models all predict significant change are considered most likely to
experience change.
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