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Future Vulnerability

In selecting between alternative plans, it is useful to be able to compare the likely outcomes of each plan. We cannot predict the future, but available models do allow us to estimate the likely distribution of environmental vulnerability in the future based on decisions made today. For example, the future distribution of stresses on aquatic biodiversity can be estimated based on land use change models and current species distribution information. This map shows the distribution of areas that both have high species diversity today and are likely to experience increased human development.

All land use change models have some degree of uncertainty. One way to estimate probability of change is to use a "weight of evidence" approach, as we have done here. This graphic shows where different models of land use change agree: watersheds where 4-5 models all predict significant change are considered most likely to experience change.

Land-use change overlayed with native aquatic species

 
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