HIV/AIDS Causes Lifespans to Decline in Southern Africa

March 2004

The HIV/AIDS epidemic in southern Africa has lowered the average life expectancy to less than 50 years, a level unseen since the 19th century.

In South Africa, for instance, the average life expectancy in 2002 was 48.8 years. By 2010, the average lifespan could drop to 36.5 years. Without the ravages of HIV/AIDS, life expectancy in South Africa would have been about 67 years, according to The AIDS Pandemic in the 21st Century, a USAID report.

Lower life expectancy is one consequence of the pandemic. Child mortality has increased and, more significantly, South Africa may soon reach the point where more of its citizens die than are born each year.

Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland, and Mozambique will also begin to experience negative population growth by the end of the decade. Children are among the hardest hit by HIV/AIDS. In 2000, South Africa had 1.2 million orphans; by 2010 it will have 3.5 million.

According to Children on the Brink, a USAID report released in 2002, about 40 percent of HIV/AIDS orphans were born with the disease. By 2010, the report states, an estimated 25 million children under 15 will have lost one or both parents to AIDS and complicating illnesses.

Just 20 years ago, few medical or population experts predicted the catastrophic effect HIV/AIDS would have on population growth. The AIDS Pandemic in the 21st Century notes: “That over 30 percent of adults would be living with HIV/AIDS in any country was unthinkable.” Given current rates, “many more millions of individuals will die due to AIDS over the next decade than have over the past two decades. Many of the southern African countries are only beginning to see the impact of these high levels of HIV prevalence.”

Current population trends in Southern Africa are expected to continue.

By 2020 there will be more men than women in the region, a factor that increases the incidence of violence against women. A South Africa demographic and health survey is now underway.

USAID's FY 2003 budget for HIV/AIDS South Africa was $22.9 million. The Program focused on preventing mother-to-child transmission, voluntary counseling and testing, care and support for people and their families living with HIV/AIDS, prevention campaigns and pilot treatment programs in the private sector. The budget will be significantly increased as part of the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief.

Access the March 2004 edition of FrontLines [PDF, 2MB]