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Predictive Estimates

Bulk ephedrine smuggling through Colombia and Central America into Mexico may increase in the near term. U.S. Department of State reporting indicates that Colombian DTOs are smuggling ephedrine shipments into Colombia for subsequent sale to Mexican DTOs. Detailed information on the extent of their operations is limited; however, this practice of smuggling ephedrine from Colombia, through Central America, to Mexico will very likely escalate as the government of Mexico further reduces legal importation of ephedrine and pseudoephedrine. Also of concern is the potential for Colombian DTOs to produce methamphetamine on a large scale if Mexico becomes unable to maintain a production level sufficient to meet U.S. demand.

Asian drug trafficking groups may increase methamphetamine distribution in the United States. Canada-based Asian groups are reportedly producing increasing amounts of methamphetamine in Canada for distribution in that country as well as to other areas such as Australia and Japan. According to Canadian law enforcement officials, these groups have only distributed limited quantities of Canadian methamphetamine in the United States. However, if they continue to increase methamphetamine production levels, these groups may use MDMA or marijuana trafficking networks in the United States to increase their distribution of Canadian methamphetamine in U.S. drug markets, particularly undeveloped markets or markets experiencing decreased methamphetamine availability and higher prices.

The nation may be exposed to additional forms of methamphetamine-related identity theft and fraud as methamphetamine abusers and distributors find new ways to exploit stolen identification information. Methamphetamine abusers may begin to use stolen identities to seek treatment for methamphetamine-related illnesses or may sell identities to individuals for their use in seeking medical treatment, prescription drugs, and even insurance payouts from a health insurance provider. The effects of such medical identity theft parallel those of financial identity theft; however, in addition to financial losses, victims' medical records could be altered without their permission. Incorrect entries in a person's medical record could lead to exclusion from certain types of employment, preclusion from acquiring health insurance, misdiagnoses, injury, and even death if the victim receives medical care based on incorrect information in his or her medical records.


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