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National Drug Threat Assessment 2005:
Threat Matrix

Product No. 2005-Q0317-006 February 2005

Overall Key Findings

Mexican criminal groups exert more influence over drug trafficking in the United States than any other group. Mexican criminal groups smuggle most of the cocaine available in domestic drug markets into the country. Moreover, Mexican criminal groups produce and subsequently smuggle into the country much of the heroin, marijuana, and methamphetamine available in U.S. drug markets.
Mexican drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) appear to be gaining control of a larger percentage of the cocaine smuggled into the United States. The estimated percentage of cocaine smuggled into the United States via the Mexico-Central America corridor increased sharply from 72 percent in 2002 to 77 percent in 2003, and preliminary data indicate that the percentage may be higher than 90 percent for 2004.
Domestic drug markets appear to be increasingly supplied with methamphetamine produced in methamphetamine superlabs in Mexico.
Production and distribution of ice methamphetamine--a higher purity, more addictive form of methamphetamine--by Mexican criminal groups has increased sharply over the past 2 years in many drug markets.
Colombian DTOs are increasingly relying on Mexican DTOs and criminal groups to transport South American heroin to the United States much as they rely on Mexican DTOs to transport cocaine.
The threat posed to the United States by the illegal diversion and abuse of prescription drugs has increased sharply since the mid-1990s and is now among the leading drug threats to the country.
Law enforcement reporting indicates that transportation of bulk currency out of the United States--primarily overland across the U.S.-Mexico border--is the principal form of money laundering by DTOs.

Illicit Drug	Key Findings	Source Locations	Seized En Route/Within U.S. in 2003	Transit Countries	Primary Entry Points into U.S.	Primary Markets and Principal Suppliers	Wholesale Price Range in the U.S.	Principal Retailers	Retail Price Range in the U.S.	Projections
Cocaine	-Powder cocaine use by adolescents decreased since 1999 while cocaine use among adults increased slightly. -Cocaine production declined from 700 mt in 2001 to 460 mt in 2003. -Increased seizures in Texas indicate it is the state through which most cocaine enters the U.S.	Foreign: Colombia, Bolivia, Peru Domestic: None	116,898 kg (233,000 kg reportedly available to U.S. markets)	Mexico, Central American countries, Caribbean island nations	Southwest Border (SWB) states (Texas, California, Arizona, New Mexico); Miami/S Florida; New York City (NYC)	Atlanta: Mexican, Colombian, Dominican Chicago: Mexican, Colombian Houston: Mexican, Colombian, Dominican, Jamaican Los Angeles: Mexican Miami: Colombian, Haitian New York: Colombian, Dominican, Mexican	$13,000-$30,000 per kg (powder)	African American, Hispanic street gangs; African American, Caucasian, Cuban, Dominican, Haitian, and Puerto Rican independent dealers and criminal groups	$25-$110 per gram (powder) $10-$100 per rock (crack)	-Rates of cocaine use among adolescents likely will continue to decline. -Continued reduction of cocaine production in Colombia and interdiction of cocaine shipments in the transit zone may result in worldwide reductions of retail cocaine availability.
Methamphetamine	-Increasing methamphetamine availability in the Northeast region. -Ice availability has increased sharply since 2002. -Production of methamphetamine in Mexico is increasing. -Sharp increase in methamphetamine seizures at and between Arizona ports of entry (POEs).	Foreign: Mexico and, to a much lesser extent, Southeast Asia Domestic: California	3,845 kg	Mexican: Direct from source SE Asian: Direct from source	Mexican: SWB states (California, Texas, Arizona, and New Mexico) SE Asian: California, Hawaii	Los Angeles: Mexican, outlaw motorcycle gangs (OMGs) Phoenix: Mexican San Diego: Mexican San Francisco: Mexican (Hawaiian, Filipino, and Asian DTOs distribute ice)	$3,500-$99,000 per kg* (powder); $13,200-$154,000 per kg* (ice) *normally sold in pound quantities $1,600-$45,000 per pound (powder); $6,000-$70,000 per lb (ice)	Mexican, Caucasian, and Asian criminal groups; Caucasian independent dealers; Asian and Hispanic street gangs; OMGs	$20-$300 per gram (powder) $60-$700 per gram (ice)	-Increases in foreign and domestic production should raise domestic methamphetamine availability. -Production and distribution of ice by Mexican criminal groups is likely to increase.
Marijuana	-Since 1994, marijuana emergency department (ED) mentions and treatment admissions increased. -U.S. marijuana production increasing partly because of increased involvement by U.S.-based Mexican DTOs. -Size of marijuana shipments from Canada increased.	Foreign: Mexico, Colombia, Canada, Jamaica Domestic: California, Appalachia (Tennessee, Kentucky), Hawaii, Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon)	1,225,000 kg (seizures in Texas, Arizona, California, and New Mexico account for 1,139,000 kg)	Mexican: Direct from source Colombian: Mexico, Caribbean island nations Canadian: Direct from source Jamaican: Caribbean island nations	Mexican: SWB states (primarily Texas and Arizona followed by California and New Mexico) Colombian: Miami/S Florida, SWB states, New York City Canadian: Northern Border states Jamaican: Miami/S Florida, New York City	Chicago: Mexican Dallas/Houston: Mexican Los Angeles/San Diego: Mexican, Jamaican; street gangs Miami: Hispanic, Haitian, African American New York: Jamaican, Mexican Phoenix/Tucson: Mexican, Jamaican Seattle: Caucasian, Hispanic, Vietnamese, OMGs	$770-$4,400 per kg* (commercial-grade); $1,980-$13,200 per kg* (sinsemilla) *normally sold in pound quantities $350-$2,000 per lb (commercial-grade); $900-$6,000 per lb (sinsemilla)	Caucasian, Jamaican, African American, Hispanic, Asian, and Native American local independent dealers; African American and Hispanic street gangs; Jamaican, Mexican, and Asian criminal groups; OMGs; prison gangs	$5-$50 per gram $2-$10 per joint	-As DTOs continue to expand large-scale domestic cultivation operations, overall marijuana production in the U.S. will increase. -Expansion of cannabis cultivation on public lands may increase the threat of violence against unsuspecting passersby.
Heroin	-Heroin treatment admissions increased each year since 1992. -Potential worldwide heroin production increased in 2002, 2003, and 2004 primarily because of increased production in Afghanistan. -Sharp increase in South American heroin seizures along Southwest Border.	Mexico, Colombia, Southeast Asia (Burma, Laos, Thailand); Southwest Asia (Afghanistan, Pakistan)	2,361.8 kg	Mexican (MX): Direct from source South American (SA): Direct from source, Central/South American countries, Caribbean island nations, Mexico Southeast Asian (SEA): China, SE Asian countries, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Canada Southwest Asian (SWA): European and Central Asian countries, Canada	MX: SWB states (primarily California and Texas followed by Arizona and New Mexico) SA: Miami/S Florida, NYC, Newark, SWB states (primarily Texas) SEA: NYC, Los Angeles, Northern Border states (Washington, Michigan, New York) SWA: NYC, Chicago, Detroit, Atlanta, Washington, D.C.	Chicago: Colombian (SA), Mexican (MX), Nigerian (SEA, SWA) Los Angeles: Mexican New York: Colombian, Dominican, Mexican, Chinese, Nigerian, Pakistani	MX: $18,000-$50,000 per kg SA: $52,000-$90,000 per kg SEA: $40,000-$80,000 per kg SWA: $60,000-$70,000 per kg	African American (MX, SA), Asian (SEA, SWA), Caucasian (SA), Colombian (SA), Dominican (SA), Guatemalan (MX), Honduran (MX), Mexican (MX), Puerto Rican (SA) criminal groups; African American (MX, SA, SEA, SWA), Hispanic (MX, SA, SEA, SWA) street gangs	$10 per dose (approximately 50-100 mg)	-Demand for heroin will remain lower than for other major drugs. -The increase in worldwide heroin production is unlikely to cause an increase in heroin availability in the U.S. because the increase is mostly attributed to Southwest Asian heroin, which is typically destined for Asian and European drug markets.
MDMA	-MDMA availability has decreased since 2001. -More adolescents perceive risk in using MDMA. -Decrease in MDMA smuggled directly to the U.S. from source areas. Asian DTOs increasingly are involved in MDMA trafficking and may become the primary domestic suppliers.	Foreign: Netherlands, Belgium (also Poland, Germany, Canada, Latin America) Domestic: Limited	1,319,492 du	Western European countries, Canada, Mexico, Dominican Republic	New York City, Newark, Miami, Los Angeles (via international airports); Northern Border states (New York, Washington), Texas	Los Angeles: Israeli, Russian, Asian Miami: Russian, Israeli, Eastern European, Dominican (also Colombian, Caucasian) New York: Israeli, Russian, (also Asian, Eastern European, Dominican, Colombian, OMGs, Traditional Organized Crime {TOC} groups)	$4-$20 per du (1,000 du lots)	Caucasian independent dealers; African American, Asian, and Hispanic street gangs; OMGs; prison gangs	$6-$50 per du	-MDMA abuse likely to continue declining among all age groups. -MDMA smuggling across the Northern Border may increase as MDMA trafficking organizations avoid transporting the MDMA directly to the U.S. by first transporting the drug to Canada.

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National Drug Threat Assessment 2005: Threat Matrix

Overall Key Findings

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National Drug Threat Assessment 2005:
Threat Matrix