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Small Area Income & Poverty EstimatesModel-based Estimates for States, Counties, & School Districts |
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by
Matthew Christenson
International Program Center
U. S. Census Bureau
All of the demographic data available for Puerto Rico are evaluated and, when appropriate, adjusted with the aid of an array of computer-based demographic analysis programs developed either by the U.S. Bureau of the Census or the United Nations. When we are satisfied that the data are of the highest possible quality, we produce the estimates and projections using a computer program developed by the U.S. Census Bureau called the Rural Urban Projection Program (RUP). This program works with data at the level of single-year age groups to produce yearly estimates or projections. At present we have estimates for the population of Puerto Rico for the years 1990-1999 and projections that extend to the year 2050.
The estimates and projections for Puerto Rico were made with the following data:
Fertility: Registered births for the years 1990-1999 are used to estimate fertility. Our understanding of Puerto Rico's historical trends in fertility is used to project future fertility.
Mortality: Registered deaths for the years 1990-1999 are used to estimate mortality. Our understanding of Puerto Rico's historical trends in mortality is used to project future mortality.
International Migration: This component of population change is more difficult to estimate since there are no official registries of the movement of people into and out of Puerto Rico. In lieu of direct estimates, we derive an estimate of international migration based upon the pattern implied by comparing the censuses of 1980 and 1990.