ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/15/09 0756Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 0730Z  RUMINSKI
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LOCATION...ARIZONA...UTAH...NEVADA...CALIFORNIA...
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ATTN WFOS...FGZ...SLC...VEF...LKN...
ATTN RFCS...CBRFC...CNRFC...
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EVENT...PRECIP WITH WELL DEFINED VORT OVER NEVADA
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...STLT SIGNATURE W/VORT OVER SRN NV HAS
BECOME VERY WELL DEFINED PAST SEVERAL HRS WITH COMMA HEAD APPEARANCE
TAKING SHAPE ALG WITH COOLING AND CONSOLIDATION OF CLD TOPS. OVER PAST CPL
OF HRS LOCATION OF BEST PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ALG AN AXIS FROM ERN NYE NWRD
INTO EUREKA AND CENTRAL ELKO. PIVOT PT FOR NRLY STNRY PRECIP IS OVER NE
NYE WHILE RGN OF STRONGEST INFLOW AND COLDEST CLD TOP IS OVER EUREKA/ELKO.
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DYNAMICS ARE MAIN DRIVER FOR ENHANCED PRECIP AS MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM (PW ANOMALIES ARE MINIMAL) AS PER 00Z RAOBS AND GOES
DERIVED PW'S. FEEDER CLOUD BANDS ON E SIDE OF TROF OVER MOHAVE COUNTY
IN AZ..ERN LINCOLN IN NV AND WASHINGTON/IRON IN UT HAVE SET UP IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS AND ARE AIDING IN EFFICIENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. STG (120KT) JET IS STILL ON BACK SIDE OF TROF SO FURTHER
DIGGING IS LIKELY.
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MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER CURRENT WELL DEFINED VORT WILL DROP EN MASSE
TO THE SE OF WHETHER IT WILL CONT TO SPIN IN SRN NV AND A NEW VORT WILL
REFORM. WATCHING PROGRESSION OVER PAST 24 HRS AND WITH STG JET NOTED
ABV..FEEL THAT CURRENT VORT WILL BASICALLY DRIFT OVER SRN NV AND NEW
VORT WILL FORM OVER NW AZ LATER TNGT/WED MRNG. THIS WILL LIEKLY MAXIMIZE
PRECIP OVER SE HALF OF NV AS VORT SLOWLY SPINS DOWN AS DYNAMICS WEAKEN.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4020 11680 3881 11147 3479 11258 3585 11749
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