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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 12/29/08 0610Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 0545Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...CALIFORNIA...OREGON...
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ATTN WFOS...PDT...REV...MFR...STO...PQR...EKA...
ATTN RFCS...NWRFC...CNRFC...
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EVENT...CONTINUING THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LONG DURATION HEAVY PRECIP EVENT OVER
PORTIONS OF CA AND OR WILL NOT ONLY CONTINUE TONIGHT BUT ALSO PERHAPS
BECOME HEAVIER IN PORTIONS OF SW OR AND NW CA WITH APPROACH OF RATHER
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE E PAC.  WOULD EXPECT
PRECIP RATES OF ANYWHERE BETWEEN 0.2-0.4"/HR WITH 6-12 HOUR PRECIP TOTALS
OF BETWEEN 1-3" IN THE MOST FAVORED TERRAIN THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF
THE NIGHT.
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SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED TROP FOLD, EVIDENT IN THE DRYING ON
WV IMAGERY ALONG 140W, HAS HELPED TO BUCKLE THE FLOW ENOUGH SO THAT
DOWNSTREAM JET STREAK HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ON MORE OF AN ANTICYLONIC
CURVATURE.  THIS HAS HELPED TO FOCUS THE MAXIMUM UL DIVERGENCE IN AN AREA
JUST OFFSHORE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OREGON PER RECENT EXPERIMENTAL GOES
WIND ALGORITHM.  OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEGUN TO EVOLVE INTO A RATHER
LARGE BAROCLINIC LEAF FEATURE, INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASING LOW AND MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.  THIN RIBBON OF DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.00-1.25" APPEARS TO BE ROUGHLY COLLOCATED WITH
BEST FORCING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT OF BAROCLINIC
LEAF FEATURE.  THIS WOULD FAVOR BEST DYNAMIC FORCING/OROGRAPHIC ASCENT
AND ASSOCIATED HEAVIEST PRECIP TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES
OF NW CA AND SW OR WHILE ALSO DEVELOPING NORTHWARD INTO THE CASCADES
OF OR.  BELIEVE PRECIP HEAVY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15-18Z
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THEREAFTER WITH PASSAGE OF TROF AXIS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4561 12140 4513 12132 4432 12145 4344 12107 4304 12085
4232 12030 4185 12062 4219 12126 4229 12158 4191 12175
4156 12141 4138 12118 4074 12146 4044 12211 4020 12311
4004 12436 4133 12483 4415 12476 4526 12336
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