ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
HIZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 12/19/08 0830Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-WEST:0800Z  AMSU:0306Z  SSMI:0447Z
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LOCATION...HAWAII...
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ATTN WFOS...HFO...
ATTN RFCS...AKRFC...
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EVENT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WELL EAST OF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS NIIHAU TOWARD KAUAI.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS PRIMARY UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 22N175W, WHICH HAD BEEN MOVING STEADILY TO THE
SOUTHEAST, HAS NOW APPARENTLY SLOWED DOWN AND BEGUN TO WRAP UP. A BIT
FARTHER TO THE EAST SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW HAVE AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE AREA
OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS TAKEN ON SOMEWHAT OF A LINEAR MCS SATELLITE
PRESENTATION IN A FAVORABLY DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD AND IS NOW
CROSSING OVER NIIHAU. EARLIER AMSU AND SSMI PASSES SHOWED A NUMBER OF
PIXELS REPRESENTING AREAL AVERAGE INSTANTANEOUS RAIN RATES OF WELL OVER
1"/HR WHICH IS CERTAINLY NO SURPRISE GIVEN THE WELL DEFINED APPEARANCE
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. IR SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
HAVE INDICATED SOME SUBTLE WARMING WITH CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE AREA WHILE THE PORTION OF THE COMPLEX
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS SEEMS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS
INTENSITY. HOWEVER GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY (PWATS 1.75-2.00")
STILL GENERALLY EXPECT SATELLITE ESTIMATED RAIN RATES OF WELL OVER 1"/HR
WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS PASSING OVER NIIHAU TOWARD KAUAI. THE RELATIVELY
SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE CONVECTIVE LINE WITH STEERING FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO ITS ORIENTATION MAY ALLOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF CELL TRAINING
ACROSS NIIHAU AND EVENTUALLY KAUAI AND ENHANCED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 2239 16051 2227 15416 1827 15427 1850 16044
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