ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/11/09 0159Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0145Z KUSSELSON
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LOCATION...NEW YORK...N PENNSYLVANIA...N OHIO...EXT S MICHIGAN...
LOCATION...INDIANA...
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ATTN WFOS...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...IWX...
ATTN RFCS...NERFC...MARFC...OHRFC...NCRFC...
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EVENT...CONCERN ABOUT TRAINING HVY RAIN BURSTS OVER AREA OF LOW FF
GUIDANCE VALUES AND ANY SNOW MELT...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AXIS AS PER LATEST
GPS...BLENDED TPW...GOES SOUNDER AND 00Z RADIOSONDE ANALYSIS WAS CENTERED
NE TX THRU C ARKANSAS CONVECTION CURVING CYCLONICALLY THRU NE
ARKANSAS AND SE MO TO C IL AND THEN FROM THERE NEWD THRU N INDIANA
AND EAST ACROSS FAR N OHIO/EXT SE MI THRU SW NY/EXT NW PA TO SE NY.
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS AXIS HVY RAIN WILL FALL UNTIL FRONTAL PART OF
THE PLUME BACK IN N INDIANA AND SWWD FROM THERE ARRIVES.  SO VULNERABLE
AREAS WILL BE THOSE THAT GET AT LEAST TWO GOOD SHOTS OF HVY RAIN AND/OR
TRAINING ACTIVITY THAT COULD SET UP ACROSS FAR N OHIO THRU FAR N PA AND
SW TO S CENTRAL NY...COINCIDENTALLY ABOUT THE SAME AREA OF SOME OF
THE LOWEST FF GUIDANCE VALUES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.   SO AGREEING
WITH HPC EVENING FF/FLOOD AREA FOR TONIGHT.  BECAUSE THE BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN LIFTING NORTH A LITTLE MORE IN OHIO AND NOW INTO NW PA...CHANCE
TRAINING ACTIVITY TONIGHT COULD SHIFT A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTH OF WHERE
IT IS NOW...BUT PROBABLY NOT TOO MUCH AS FRONT RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH
MOISTURE PLUME AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE FOLLOWING PRETTY QUICKLY
AT LEAST THRU ILLINOIS...INDIANA FIRST HALF OF NIGHT AND OHIO INTO W PA
LAST HALF OF TONIGHT.    WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...
SATELLITE ANALYSIS GRAPHIC ON HOME PAGE SHORTLY AT ADDRESS BELOW...
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4349 7896 4287 7534 4118 7553 4119 8153 4101 8511

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