ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
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NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 12/05/08 0558Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0545Z KUSSELSON
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LOCATION...SW AND C NEW YORK...NW PENNSYLVANIA...NE OHIO...
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ATTN WFOS...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...
ATTN RFCS...NERFC...MARFC...OHRFC...
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EVENT...LAKE EFFECT OFF ERIE AND ONTARIO...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...BASIC THEME FOR LAKE PLUMES OFF ONTARIO
AND ERIE ARE FLOW NOT TURNING MUCH IF ANY BEHIND SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS E ONTARIO PROVINCE AND POSITIVE TILT OF MAIN TROUGH ALLOWING FOR
MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND SHORT WAVE.   SO THAT SHOULD ALLOW MAIN
PLUME OFF THE EAST PART OF LK ONTARIO TO AFFECT OSWEGO AND SPREAD OUT
INTO S LEWIS AND N ONEIDA COUNTY REST OF TONIGHT AND DON'T BELIEVE
NE WAYNE OR N CAYUGA WILL SEE PLUME BACK INTO THOSE COUNTIES DESPITE THE
PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE.  NOW AM SEEING AN ORGANIZED BLOB ON TAIL END OF
LK ONTARIO PLUME THAT COULD FURTHER ENHANCE MAIN SNOW PLUME AS IT GETS
CLOSE TO OSWEGO AND MOVES INLAND.  IF THAT OCCURS...FRINGES OF THIS BLOB
COULD CATCH PARTS OF NE WAYNE AND/OR N CAYUGA BUT I WOULD RATE THAT AS
ONLY A 50-50 CHANCE.  IN ANY CASE BURSTS OF HVY SNOW INTO OSWEGO COULD
INCR TO NEAR 2.0"/HR ESPECIALLY IN UPGLIDE AREA AWAY FROM THE LAKE.
OFF LK ERIE MULTIPLUMES OFF LK RESULTING IN LIGHT TO VERY OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SNOW.  TIMES OF MODERATE MORE A RESULT OF FETCH INTO EXT NE
OHIO AND UPGLIDE INTO EXT SW NY COUNTIES.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...SEE ANALYSIS GRAPHIC ON HOME PAGE SHORTLY AT
ADDRESS BELOW...
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4396 7536 4345 7482 4172 7988 4199 8198 4369 7727

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