Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 090732
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
332 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009
.SHORT TERM...
FCST CONCERNS RELEGATED TO INTENSE MID LVL SW TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF
NE IA THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC...UPSTREAM PREFNTL LINE OF CONVN HAD
DISSIPATED COMPLETELY AS MID LVL ASCENT OUTRACES SFC BNDRY...NOW
INTO WRN IL. CAA SURGE ON BACKSIDE OF MID LVL CIRC QUITE INTENSE AND
GIVEN EXTRAPOLATION OF DEEP DRY SLOT IN CONJUNCTION W/STRONGEST LL
MOMENTUM SURGE THIS MORNING HAVE ISSUED A RARE MAY WIND ADVISORY FOR
NE HALF OF CWA...ROUGHLY US 30 NORTH. PARTIAL INSOLATION WITHIN
DRYSLOT WILL AIDE THINGS W/A SVRL HR PD OF 30-40KT WIND POTENTIAL
WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA...GREATEST FM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN
COINCIDING W/DURATION OF ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL CREST EARLY AND LIKELY FALL THROUGH AFTN OWING
TO INTENSITY OF LL CAA WRAPPING AROUND INTENSE CYCLONE. HWVR SYS
RACES EWD WITHIN CONTD PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLW AND PROGGED INTO SRN
ONTARIO BY LATE MORNING SO CONDS WILL IMPROVE BY LT AFTN.
CLRG TONIGHT AS UNSEASONABLY STG SFC RIDGING BUILDS SEWD OUT OF THE
NRN PLAINS. WILL KEEP W/SLIGHTLY EXPANDED PATCHY FROST MENTION FAR N.
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE ZIPS EWD ON SUN AND MAY PROMOTE ENOUGH CLD CVR
TO CURTAIL MORE WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL SUN NIGHT BUT WILL MAKE
NO CHGS TO PRIOR MENTION. TEMPS THROUGH THE PD WELL BLO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
STATUS QUO ON LONG TERM PACKAGE AS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO FULL
POTENTIAL OF MID WEEK SYSTEM FOR THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE CONTROL OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN STORE. 12Z MON H85 TEMPS OF +2 TO
+4 C WILL PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY UNTIL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND
ALLOWS SE FLOW TO BEGIN IN EARNEST BY 00Z WEDS WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO +6 TO +8 C. THIS SAME SE FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP ANY MSTR AT BAY
UNTIL JUST BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES. WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS SOME
DECENT POTENTIAL TO GIVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AS
WELL AS A THREAT FOR SEVERE....SCENARIO LOOKS OMINOUSLY SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE ARE SEEING NOW WITH MSTR ONLY BRIEFLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF EACH
WAVE AND JUST NOT ENOUGH TO GIVE WHAT IS NEEDED FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. WILL AT LEAST GIVE SOMEWHAT OF A NOD TO FACT THAT MED
RANGE MODELS ARE REMAINING GENERALLY CONSISTENT IN OVERALL ARRIVAL
WINDOW...GIVE OR TAKE 6 TO 12 HOURS. 12Z ECMWF BRINGS IN A SLUG OF
RAIN AND STORMS ALONG WARM FRONT WITH 850 MB TEMPS QUICKLY
INCREASING DURING THE DAY WEDS FOLLOWED BY CD FNT WEDS NGT INTO
EARLY THURS. GFS LESS PRONOUNCED WITH WARM FRONT ACTIVITY BUT ABOUT
AS ROBUST ON QPF AS THE ECMWF WITH BOTH HINTING AT 1 TO 2 INCHES.
QUICK GLANCE AT NEW 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A SLOWER TREND TO THE CDFNT MORE
ARRIVING LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURS WITH WRM FNT ACTIVITY NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE. SCENARIO OF A ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER MID WEEK QUITE
PLAUSIBLE...BUT TRACK RECORD OF LATE WITH BEST MSTR PLUMES AND POOR
TIMING OF WAVES SOMEWHAT TAINTING MY OPINION ON THE POTENTIAL. WILL
KEEP POPS IN AS PATTERN IS DUE TO CHANGE SOONER THAN LATER TO BRING
A RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE AND POTENTIALLY STORMIER SETUP.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PD. MAIN CONCERN LIES W/STG GRADIENT
WIND POTENTIAL AS INTENSE SW TROUGH OVR NE IA ACCELERATES EWD THIS
MORNING AND DEEPENING DRY SLOT ADVTS EWD ACRS NRN HALF OF CWA IN
CONJUNCTION W/STRONGEST ISOLLABARIC MOMENTUM PUSH. THAT SAID...BOTH
TERMINALS WILL SEE A SVRL HR PD OF STG PK SFC GUSTS UP ~ 40 KTS FM
MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN AIDED BY INSOLATION WITHIN DRY SLOT.
OTHERWISE FNTL SURGE AND RENEWED DEEP CONVN DVLPG ONCE AGAIN THROUGH
THE MID MS/TN VALLEYS SUGGEST SUGGEST FNTL SCALE CIRC WILL FALL
APART COMPLETELY BY SUNRISE W/LTL SUSTAINED FOCUS FOR THUNDER AND
HAVE DROPPED ALL MENTION.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
/4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ003>009-012-014-016>018.
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HOLSTEN
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...HOLSTEN
