Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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000 FXUS63 KAPX 150358 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1158 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2009 .SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 348 PM/ HIGH PRES OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GTLKS TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING 983 MB CYCLONE. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AS THE HIGH DRIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND THE NEXT CYCLONE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. SATURDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY. A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 939 PM/...TONIGHT 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1020MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE IL/IN BORDER...WITH A NARROW RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER AND INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO (ALSO REFLECTED AT 850/700MB). DIURNAL CLOUD COVER HAS FADED WITH SCATTERED-BROKEN CI IN THE VICINITY...AS MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE STATE (PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO 0.35 INCH ON 00Z APX SOUNDING). HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CROSS THE WESTERN LAKES TONIGHT...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA. FROST POTENTIAL IS A CONCERN...LIGHT WINDS WILL BE A PLUS...HIGH CLOUDS AND CURRENT DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER ARE NOT. SOME OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FROST AS PER CURRENT FORECAST...AND PROBABLY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY. JPB && .LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 348 PM/...FRIDAY AND BEYOND FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM AS THE RETURN FLOW LOOK LIKE IT GETS ESTABLISHED IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND THE HIGH CLOUDS LOOK TO BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE SO WITH BY 00Z THE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND +7C. SO WITH THE MIXING THAT WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES WILL GET INTO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA THAT THE MAIN SLUG OF PRECIPITATION SLIDES TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST WITH THE WARM FRONT AND THE SECONDARY SFC LOW. THE MAIN LOW AND THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN AND N LAKE SUPERIOR. GLAD THAT I MENTIONED MY SKEPTICISM ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM BECAUSE THE TWO SYSTEM HAVE A VOID AREA, WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. STILL NOT SURE THAT THE HPC IDEA IS THE RIGHT WAY YET AS THIS SEEMS TO HAVE A LOOK OF MOST OF THE NORTHERN MICHIGAN GETTING INTO THE "RIP OFF ZONE." THINK THAT SATURDAY MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON WILL BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF RAIN LEAVING IN THE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY THE SUN BREAKING OUT LATE. SATURDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FROST WILL BE EXPECTED AS THE MOISTURE MOVES OUT AND THE SKIES CLEAR AND THE WINDS IN SHELTERED AREAS WILL DECOUPLE. SUNDAY...WITH THE CHILLY AIR IN THE REGION IN THE MORNING THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE EAST ALLOWING THE DRY AIR TO MOVE IN WITH THE CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WON`T GET VERY FAR AS THE COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION SO THAT LOWER TO MID 50S IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY GET A LITTLE COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND BETTER DECOUPLING. EXTENDED (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)....MONDAY, THE DRY AIR STAYS IN THE REGION AND PROVIDES A DRY DAY AT THIS POINT. TUESDAY, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY, WILL GO WITH THE CROWD AND SAY THAT THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THEN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FRONT COMES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THURSDAY, THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO E UPPER IN THE MORNING. SO MORE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. LUTZ FURTHER OUT...BELIEVE WE MAY BE IN FOR A RECONFIGURATION OF LONG WAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH A SUMMER-LIKE SIGNAL...BASED ON 500MB 5-DAY MEAN HEMISPHERIC HGT ANOMALIES FROM GFS MREF CENTERED ON D11 /MAY 25TH/. EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG MREF MEMBERS AND DETERMINISTIC GFS IS ONTO THIS AS WELL. GFS IS A BIT BULLISH ON 588+ HGTS AND +16C TEMPS BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE QSTN. THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE SWRN USA FOR THE LAST MONTH IS FCST TO BE REPLACED BY W COAST TROFFING. THIS...COMBINED WITH DIMINISHING POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTH SEA...WILL ALLOW FOR HEIGHTS TO RISE AND POSITIVE ANOMALIES TO DVLP OVER THE ERN USA. AS A RESULT...THE POLAR JET IS FCST TO LIFT TO THE USA-CANADA BORDER AND THE POLAR FRONT WILL REMAIN IN MUCH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE GTLKS...INSTEAD OF PLUNGING DOWN INTO THE S. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FCSTG HGTS 576-582 THRU THE END OF THE MONTH. H8 TEMPS OF +12C APPEAR AT TIMES WITH ONLY 3C OF SPREAD. THIS BODES WELL FOR ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND INCREASED MCS ACTIVITY NEARBY. CONTINGENT UPON PSBL CONTAMINATION BY CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS...HAVE TO BELIEVE A COUPLE EPISODES OF 80S ARE AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY. STAY TUNED... JH && .MARINE.../ISSUED AT 348 PM/ GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AREAS WHERE GUSTS HAVE TEETERED WITH GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT HIGH PRESSURE/WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES THROUGH THE EVENING UNTIL THIS OCCURS AND ALLOW WAVES TO SUBSIDE. WINDS/WAVES THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB SMALL CRAFT THROUGH FRIDAY. ADAM && .AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1155 PM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN LOWERING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RAIN MOVING INTO TVC/PLN AFTER 00Z SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. LH...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$
