T. M. Cronin¹, L. B. Wingard¹, G. S. Dwyer², P. K. Swart³, D. A. Willard¹ and H. Walker^4
1Mail Stop 926A US Geological Survey, Reston, VA
²Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke University Durham, NC
³Division of Marine Geology and Geophysics, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL
⁴Atlantic Ecology Division, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency, Narragansett, RI

Instrumental and paleoclimate records suggest that climate variability exerts a strong influence on the functioning of coastal ecosystems, and can at times override the ecosystem response to management actions. Although this variability can include changing temperatures, storm frequencies, and hurricanes, extremes in seasonal and interannual rainfall appear to be the most important factors for most coastal ecosystems over decadal timescales. Quite distinct from climate variability, but equally important for coastal restoration and management, are impacts posed by sea-level rise. Historical and current rates and causes of sea-level rise are the subject of intense research activity. In brief, growing evidence from instrumental, satellite, glaciological, climatic, and stratigraphic records suggests that the rate of global sea-level rise may be accelerating due to anthropogenic influence on climate. Specifically, increased rates are most likely due to thermal expansion of the global ocean and the melting of alpine glaciers and certain margins of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. While the future rates of sea level rise cannot yet be predicted, rising sea-level introduces additional complexities to the interpretation of past changes in salinity in shallow, semi-restricted bays such as Biscayne Bay, and even greater challenges to the management of low-lying coasts fringed by species such as mangroves and marshes sensitive to salinity and the rate of inundation.

Although these issues are not new to coastal environmental management, growing evidence for human influence on climate suggests that one goal of coastal restoration should be a careful assessment of region-specific climatic extremes in rainfall and the rates of past and present sea-level rise and their impacts on coastal ecosystems. In this talk we will prescribe a research agenda to achieve this goal.

Contact Information: T. M. Cronin, 926A, US Geological Survey, Reston, VA 20192 USA, Phone: 703-648-6363, Fax: 703-648-6953, Email: tcronin@usgs.gov

(This abstract is from the 2006 Greater Everglades Ecosystem Restoration Conference.)

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