Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
000 FGUS73 KGRR 212128 ESFGRR MIC005-015-025-037-045-057-065-067-073-075-077-081-105-107-121-123- 133-222328- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 528 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2009 ...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR RIVER BASINS IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... THE GRAND RAPIDS OFFICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR ALL LOCATIONS IN THE GRAND...MUSKEGON...CHIPPEWA...PINE...KALAMAZOO... AND ST JOSEPH RIVER BASINS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED IN ADDITION TO THE 5 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THE VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE VALID APRIL 27 2009 TO JULY 26 2009. ...90 DAY HIGH FLOW FORECAST... CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT EVART HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 12 FEET. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 10.4 FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- MUSKEGON RIVER EVART 12.0 8.1 8.3 8.8 9.1 9.2 9.6 9.9 10.4 11.2 CROTON 9.0 6.4 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.5 7.8 7.9 8.3 9.1 LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER MORLEY 6.0 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.8 4.0 4.2 5.0 WHITE RIVER WHITEHALL 6.0 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.2 4.3 4.6 5.0 5.4 5.8 PERE MARQUETTE RIVER SCOTTVILLE 5.5 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.4 4.7 CHIPPEWA RIVER MT PLEASANT 8.0 3.9 4.4 4.9 5.1 5.4 5.6 6.1 6.6 7.2 PINE RIVER ALMA 8.0 2.5 3.2 3.8 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.6 6.6 RED CEDAR RIVER WILLIAMSTON 9.0 5.5 6.1 6.2 6.6 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.6 8.5 EAST LANSING 7.0 4.5 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.3 7.3 LOOKING GLASS RIVER EAGLE 7.0 4.0 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.6 5.9 6.4 7.2 8.0 MAPLE RIVER MAPLE RAPIDS 9.0 5.0 6.0 6.9 7.2 7.7 8.1 8.5 8.8 9.4 THORNAPPLE RIVER HASTINGS 7.0 4.3 4.9 5.3 5.4 5.7 5.8 6.4 6.8 7.9 CALEDONIA 10.0 5.0 5.5 5.8 6.0 6.3 6.5 7.4 7.9 9.6 ROGUE RIVER ROCKFORD 8.0 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.7 8.0 FLAT RIVER SMYRNA 8.5 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 6.6 GRAND RIVER JACKSON 14.0 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.2 14.6 EATON RAPIDS 6.0 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.8 DIMONDALE 13.0 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.8 LANSING 11.0 5.3 5.7 6.1 6.4 6.8 7.6 7.9 8.9 10.1 GRAND LEDGE 11.0 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.6 8.0 8.7 PORTLAND 12.0 7.2 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.6 8.9 9.6 9.9 IONIA 21.0 13.1 14.2 15.0 16.0 16.6 17.4 18.1 19.3 20.5 LOWELL 15.0 7.9 8.5 8.8 9.5 10.1 10.6 11.1 12.3 14.0 ADA 20.0 10.9 11.7 12.4 13.4 14.2 15.0 16.1 17.2 18.8 GRAND RAPIDS 18.0 6.9 7.6 8.4 9.9 10.7 11.1 12.5 13.9 16.2 KALAMAZOO RIVER MARSHALL 8.0 5.0 5.2 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.7 7.0 8.7 11.4 BATTLE CREEK 9.0 4.3 4.4 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.3 7.4 COMSTOCK 9.0 5.3 5.7 6.3 6.4 6.7 6.9 7.5 8.4 10.2 NEW RICHMOND 11.0 7.9 8.4 8.6 8.9 9.2 9.5 9.8 10.8 11.5 BATTLE CREEK BATTLE CREEK 4.0 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.8 ST JOSEPH RIVER BURLINGTON 6.5 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.7 PORTAGE RIVER VICKSBURG 5.0 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.4 6.3 ...90 DAY LOW FLOW FORECAST... IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 10 THROUGH 90 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD FALL BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT EVART HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 12 FEET. THERE IS A 80 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 7.3 FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS LOCATION FS(FT) 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- MUSKEGON RIVER EVART 12.0 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 CROTON 9.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER MORLEY 6.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 WHITE RIVER WHITEHALL 6.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 PERE MARQUETTE RIVER SCOTTVILLE 5.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 CHIPPEWA RIVER MT PLEASANT 8.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 PINE RIVER ALMA 8.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 RED CEDAR RIVER WILLIAMSTON 9.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 EAST LANSING 7.0 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 LOOKING GLASS RIVER EAGLE 7.0 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 MAPLE RIVER MAPLE RAPIDS 9.0 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.3 THORNAPPLE RIVER HASTINGS 7.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 CALEDONIA 10.0 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 ROGUE RIVER ROCKFORD 8.0 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 FLAT RIVER SMYRNA 8.5 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 GRAND RIVER JACKSON 14.0 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.5 EATON RAPIDS 6.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 DIMONDALE 13.0 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 LANSING 11.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.5 GRAND LEDGE 11.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.3 PORTLAND 12.0 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.7 IONIA 21.0 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.2 9.5 LOWELL 15.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.9 ADA 20.0 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 8.1 GRAND RAPIDS 18.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 KALAMAZOO RIVER MARSHALL 8.0 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 4.1 4.1 4.1 BATTLE CREEK 9.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 COMSTOCK 9.0 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 NEW RICHMOND 11.0 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.5 BATTLE CREEK BATTLE CREEK 4.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 ST JOSEPH RIVER BURLINGTON 6.5 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 PORTAGE RIVER VICKSBURG 5.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER... SOIL MOISTURE... AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES... THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT:WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRR/(INTERNET ADDRESSES ARE ALL LOWER CASE). LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED EACH MONTH...NEAR THE END OF THE MONTH...THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. $$
