Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 050747
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 AM CDT TUE MAY 05 2009
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN NM AND PORTIONS OF W/SW/FAR W
TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG 100-140 KT W-NWLY UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS
THE WRN CONUS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ENTER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
BY EVENING. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE UPPER JET ALONG THE W TX/ERN NM BORDER...WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW INTO SW TX. THE COMBINATION
OF HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE
WINDS W OF THE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF SRN NM AND W/SW/FAR W TX.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN NM AND PORTIONS OF W/SW/FAR W
TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH...WARM TEMPERATURES...STRONG
WINDS...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL
RESIDE NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
ELEVATED TERRAIN AND PASSES EXPECTED TO MORE EASILY REACH CRITERIA
GIVEN MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL WLY FLOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL TAKE
PLACE...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOW TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR
AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE NAMKF ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND INCREASING THE WILDFIRE THREAT. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE CRITICALLY STRONG
WINDS WILL BE THOSE OVER SRN NM AND FAR W TX...WHERE A BAND OF WLY
700 MB FLOW AOA 20 KT WILL RESIDE. AREAS OUTSIDE OF THAT REGION WILL
BE MORE MARGINAL...BUT MAY EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH
FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
...CENTRAL AND SRN WY...
MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 20-30 MPH WILL
OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SRN WY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. DUE TO
THE STRONG WINDS...WILDFIRE MITIGATION EFFORTS MAY BE HAMPERED
SOMEWHAT.
...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA...
SREF MEAN RH AND DETERMINISTIC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EARLY
AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAY FALL INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.
HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...WHICH
PRECLUDES A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA FROM BEING ASSIGNED.
..GARNER.. 05/05/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 050750
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 AM CDT TUE MAY 05 2009
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE E COAST IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE DURING
THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO A SECOND WAVE PROGRESSING E ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME
MORE ZONAL...ALLOWING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TO BECOME POSITIONED
FROM THE NWRN INTO THE N CENTRAL STATES. AS THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES E...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT OVER WY...STRONG/GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE
UPPER JET SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE SURFACE WINDS MAY LEAD TO
AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SRN WY...
A BAND OF STRONG WLY MID LEVEL FLOW /30-35 KT AT 700 MB...60 KT AT
500 MB/ IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD WY DURING WEDNESDAY. THESE WINDS
WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONG/GUSTY SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE.
THOUGH MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RESIDE ABOVE 20 PERCENT
BEHIND AN EARLY MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE THREAT.
..GARNER.. 05/05/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...