FZUS81 KCLE 171721 ICEFBO GREAT LAKES BREAK-UP OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 123 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2009 BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CREATED AN ACTIVE ICE SEASON FOR THE WINTER OF 2008-2009 ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WINTER OF 2008-2009 STARTED OUT TO BE FAIRLY COLD OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA HAD BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE REPORTED OVER THE EAST. TEMPERATURES FELL FURTHER FROM NORMAL DURING THE MONTH OF JANUARY. THIS CONTRIBUTED TO THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE SEASON. FEBRUARY SAW A BREAK AS TEMPERATURES CLIMBED TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH AND THIS AIDED IN DECREASING THE ICE COVER OVER LAKE ERIE BY THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH. A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PERSISTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER AND JANUARY WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE CAUSED A FUNNELING EFFECT OF COLD AIR OUT OF THE NORTH POLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER HAD A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 3 TO 9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ENTIRE LAKES REGION. SOME WARMING TOOK PLACE DURING THE SECOND WEEK ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKES WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WHILE THE WESTERN PORTIONS CONTINUED AT A STEADY PACE OF 3 TO 9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A COLD SNAP HIT THE WESTERN LAKES DURING WEEK THREE OF DECEMBER WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH THE LAKES. THE SAME STORM SYSTEM BROUGHT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST HALF. GENERALLY NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OCCURRED THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF JANUARY BUT THEN THE BOTTOM DROPPED OUT BY WEEK THREE WHERE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKES PLUMMETED TO BETWEEN 9 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE TEMPERATURE WARMED TO BETWEEN 3 AND 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE LAKES DURING THE FOURTH WEEK OF JANUARY. THE SOUTHEAST THREE QUARTERS HAD TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 3 AND 9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE FIRST...THIRD AND FOURTH WEEKS IN FEBRUARY HAD TEMPERATURES THAT WERE BETWEEN 3 AND 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE SECOND WEEK SAW A STRONG SURGE IN WARMTH AS TEMPERATURES CLIMBED TO BETWEEN 9 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVED NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA PRODUCING WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE TYPICAL JANUARY THAW CAME ABOUT A MONTH LATER. WATER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WERE RUNNING EITHER AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR OCTOBER INTO NOVEMBER. THIS SET THE STAGE FOR A RAPID COOL DOWN OF THE WATER TEMPERATURES THAT TOOK PLACE DURING THE WINTER MONTHS. ONCE DECEMBER ARRIVED WITH ITS COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...THE LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES BEGAN TO TAKE A NOSEDIVE. THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER...ICE BEGAN TO QUICKLY FORM ON THE LAKES AND RESULTED IN ONE OF THE MOST EXTENSIVE ICE COVERAGE YEARS IN RECENT HISTORY. THE LAST SIMILAR ICE SEASON WAS THE 2003-2004 SEASON WHERE EXTENSIVE ICE COVERED A LARGE PART OF THE LAKES. A CONTINUOUS PROCESS OF ICE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRED DURING THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. MINOR ICE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER IN THE BAYS DE NOC...GREEN BAY...AND IN THE PROTECTED BAYS AND HARBORS ALONG WITH THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE. THE ICE FIELDS CONTINUED TO PROGRESS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE MONTH AND EXPANDED RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY PART OF JANUARY. THE ICE FIELDS RESULTED IN COMPLETE COVERAGE OF LAKE ERIE AND NEARLY COMPLETE COVERAGE OF LAKES HURON AND SUPERIOR. THE UNITED STATES COAST GUARD REPORTED OPERATION COAL SHOVEL BEGAN IN THE LOWER PART OF LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE ON DECEMBER 24TH. OPERATION TACONITE OPERATED ON THE REST OF THE UPPER LAKES AND BEGAN ON DECEMBER 15TH. OPERATION COAL SHOVEL WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKING OPERATIONS AT LEAST UNTIL EARLY APRIL AND OPERATION TACONITE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST APRIL 25TH. THIS ALL DEPENDS ON ICE CONDITIONS AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. THE SOO LOCKS ARE EXPECTED TO OPEN AT THE NORMAL DATE OF MARCH 25TH. THE SEASONAL FREEZING DEGREE DAYS AS OF MARCH 16TH ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE CURRENT FREEZING DEGREE DAY TOTALS ARE A RESULT OF THE ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS. THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE COMPARISON OF EACH STATION TO NORMAL... FREEZING DEGREE DAY ACCUMULATIONS AT SELECTED STATIONS THROUGH THE DAY (MARCH 16 2009) COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR THAT DAY: LOCATION 2009 NORM LOCATION 2009 NORM ------------------------------ ------------------------------ DULUTH, MN 2408 2122 MUSKEGON, MI 653 582 MARQUETTE, MI 2020 1353 ALPENA, MI 1454 1100 SAULT STE MARIE, MI 1799 1656 DETROIT, MI 612 465 GREEN BAY, WI 1713 1329 TOLEDO, OH 644 411 MILWAUKEE, WI 907 800 CLEVELAND, OH 374 267 CHICAGO, IL 815 459 BUFFALO, NY 598 537 FLUSHING OF THE ICE IN THE RIVERS NORMALLY BEGINS IN THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER AND ABNORMALLY HIGH FREEZING DEGREE DAYS...THE FLUSHING OF THE NORTHERN RIVERS WILL BE DELAYED BY A COUPLE WEEKS. THE MAIN RIVERS IN THE NORTH WERE STILL AFFECTED BY CONSIDERABLE ICE AS OF MARCH 17TH. THE ST. CLAIR RIVER AND DETROIT RIVER ALONG WITH LAKE ST. CLAIR ARE RELATIVELY FREE OF ICE AT THIS TIME. THE 30 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH INTO EARLY APRIL CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES. IN OTHER WORDS...THIS MEANS THERE IS AN EQUAL CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE EITHER ABOVE...BELOW...OR NEAR NORMAL. THE COMPUTER MODELS DO NOT HAVE A STRONG CONNECTION ON WHETHER ONE OF THE THREE POSSIBILITIES WILL EXIST DURING THIS PERIOD. THE 30 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE REST OF MARCH INTO EARLY APRIL. THE 90 DAY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATE THERE IS AN EQUAL CHANCE FOR ABOVE...BELOW...OR NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS. THE 15 DAY ICE OUTLOOK INDICATES ICE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE SUN ANGLE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT COULD OCCUR IN APRIL...THE ICE WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO ITS NATURAL DECAY CYCLE DUE TO GRADUAL WARMING OF THE WATER AND SUN PENETRATION INTO THE ICE. STORMS WILL AID IN BREAKING UP THE ICE FIELDS AS THEY WEAKEN. ICE CONDITIONS CAN BE SIGNIFICANTLY ALTERED BY STRONG WINDS AND SUNSHINE. PERSISTENT WINDS INTO A WATERWAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN JAMMING FROM ICE FLOES THAT STILL EXIST. ON THE OTHER HAND...WINDS OUT OF A WATERWAY WILL FLUSH THE REMAINING ICE INTO THE OPEN WATER WHERE MELTING MAY OCCUR AT A FASTER RATE. LARGE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE HIGH SUN ANGLE CAN HELP BREAK UP THE LARGE ICE FLOES MORE QUICKLY THAN WARMER TEMPERATURES. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ICE OUTLOOKS ISSUED ON MONDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND FRIDAY FROM THE NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE ICE BECOMES INSIGNIFICANT TO SHIPPING. $$ LOMBARDY