FZAK80 PAFC 090013
ICEAFC
SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
415 PM AKDT FRIDAY MAY 8 2009
FORECAST VALID...WEDNESDAY MAY 13 2009 
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...MODERATE TO LOW. 
THE EARLY SUMMER SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS ATTACHED.  
SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER
THE CENTRAL BERING BY WEDNESDAY. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
SPREAD UP THE ALASKA WEST COAST. 
-ARCTIC OCEAN-
-BEAUFORT SEA-
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
PKZ225-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
PKZ220-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
PKZ215-KOTZEBUE SOUND-
ICE COVERED.
-BERING SEA-
PKZ210-DALL POINT TO WALES-
PKZ200-NORTON SOUND-
PKZ185-ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
PKZ180-SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT-
PKZ160-BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN-
THE ICE EDGE LIES FROM 30 NM NORTH OF CAPE NEWENHAM TO 57.8N 165.2W
TO 57.3N 164.3W TO 57N 166.7W TO 57.9N 168.1W TO 58.9N 170.4W TO
59.6N 174.1W TO 59.8N 178.5W TO 59.9N 177.1E TO 61.3N ALONG THE
RUSSIAN COAST. THE EDGE IS MAINLY 2 TO 5 TENTHS YOUNG...NEW AND
FIRST YEAR THIN ICE.  
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEST OF 178W...MUCH WARMER SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL MOVE THE ICE EDGE TO THE NORTH 80 TO 100 NM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 
FORECAST FOR WATERS EAST OF 178W...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL DIMINISH
ICE ALONG THE EDGE. BRISTOL BAY WILL BE ICE FREE BY WEDNESDAY. THE
ICE EDGE WILL MOVE NORTH OF SAINT MATTHEW AND NUNIVAK ISLANDS. 
KCOLE 2009
...MAY 2009 YEAR GROUP ANALYSIS AND EARLY SUMMER OUTLOOK...
THE YEAR GROUP FOR MAY IS 1986 WITH 2006 THE SECOND CHOICE.  1986 AND
2006 WERE LA NINA YEARS WARMING TOWARD EL NINO WHICH IS THE SAME
OUTLOOK FOR 2009. 2009 IS SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN 1986 BUT THE STRENGTH
OF THE LA NINA PATTERNS IS SIMILAR. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THE NORTH
PACIFIC IS COLDER THAN NORMAL BUT WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL THIS YEAR
AND MAY ENTER AN EL NINO BY FALL. THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK DATES ARE
BASED ON THE EVENT DATES IN 1986 AND 2006 AND RECENT TRENDS. 
...EARLY SUMMER OUTLOOK MAY 2009...
EVENT                                      2009 OUTLOOK
NORTON BAY ICE 4/10 OR LESS                    23 MAY
NORTON BAY ICE FREE                            13 JUNE
LAST ICE SOUTH OF BERING STRAIT                 1 JULY
KOTZEBUE SOUND ICE 4/10 OR LESS                30 JUNE
KOTZEBUE SOUND ICE FREE                         4 JULY
LAST ICE SOUTH OF POINT HOPE                   11 JULY
WEST COAST ICE FREE TO BARROW                   8 AUGUST
ROUTE ACROSS NORTH COAST ICE FREE              20 SEPTEMBER
KCOLE MAY 2009
$$