FXUS64 KLCH 092349
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
649 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009
.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR AS CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT DEVELOP AND/OR
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER
TONIGHT VERSUS THE PREVIOUS FEW...SO THERE WILL BE A GREATER
CHANCE OF DIPS INTO IFR. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
LATE TOMORROW MORNING AS THE CLOUDS LIFT/MIX OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009/ 
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNUSUALLY WARM AND HUMID EARLY MAY DAY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND
90 IN NORTHERN ZONES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUD COVER AND RADARS ARE CLEAR.
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
PACKAGE...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SUMMERLIKE HUMIDITY
LEVELS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MCS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO OUR
NORTH WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS
COMPLEX WITH PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL
SBCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG AND A WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR. A FEW PULSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ZONES CLOSER
TO THE BOUNDARY...AND SOME COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. SPC HAS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TOMORROW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
BY MONDAY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD
WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON PLACEMENT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NORTHERN CWA
BORDER. EXPECTING A SIMILAR SITUATION ON MONDAY THAT WILL BE SEEN
ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR...AND THUS SOME
DIURNAL MULTICELL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...SPC HAS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK AS SOME OF THE STORMS COULD REACH
SEVERE LEVELS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE EXPECTED
THREATS.
BY TUESDAY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AS
DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH NO FOCUS
FOR PRECIP IN THE AREA DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE NEEDED FOR ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT MODELS DO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY...AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS LOWERING FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
DRIER AIR INFILTRATES MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SO HAVE KEPT
REST OF FORECAST PERIOD DRY.
MARINE...
NO FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS AND
SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR SPRING. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH STRONGER FLOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS...BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  87  72  86 /   0  20  10  20 
KBPT  73  87  72  86 /   0  20  10  20 
KAEX  70  90  69  86 /  10  20  20  30 
KLFT  72  88  72  87 /   0  20  10  20 
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...04
AVIATION...04