FXUS63 KMKX 092035
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN 
AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN 
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN REGION OF DIFFERENTIAL CVA WITH SHORT WAVE ON 
WATER VAPOR LOOPS...AND SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH NNERLY FLOW ON 
BACK OF DEPARTING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE FAR EAST AND NW FLOW WITH 
BUILDING HIGH OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WILL EXIT OVER THE LAKE BY 22Z.
CLEARING WILL BE BRIEF AS CLOUDS WITH UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE MOVE IN 
FROM THE NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO SHEAR OUT AS IT 
PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL WI SUNDAY MORNING...SO WILL ONLY HAVE A 
SLIGHT CHC OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS FAR NRN CWA TOMORROW 
MORNING WITH WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.
HIGH BUILDS OVER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOME QUESTION AS TO 
HOW CLEAR SKIES WILL GET AS SERIES OF WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA CROSS 
REGION IN WNW FLOW. OPERATIONAL BUFKIT DEW POINTS APPEAR A BIT TOO 
HIGH...WHICH HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS UP. WENT CLOSER TO 2 METER AND 
MOS GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS LOCAL WRF MODELS..WHICH DROP DEW POINTS 
IN OUTLYING RURAL LOCATIONS INTO THE MID 30S BY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE 
KEPT PATCHY FROST FOR LOCATIONS WITH AIR TEMPS AT/BELOW 37F. 
MODELS DEVELOP WARM AIR ADVECTION QPF MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN 
SWLY RETURN FLOW. GFS IS ONLY MODEL BRINING PCPN INTO CWA...WITH 
POCKET OF 850-700MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER 295K ISENTROPIC 
SURFACES KEEP LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND BETTER 
ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA TO THE NW OF CWA SO WILL LEAVE DRY FOR 
NOW.
TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET FOCUSES OVER IA AND MN 
DURING THE DAY...PUSHING INTO FAR WRN WI BY EVENING. WENT WARMER 
THAN MEX GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. 
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MAIN FOCUS IN EXTENDED IS ON SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH MID WEEK. TIMING 
ISSUES A PROBLEM WITH GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT SLOWLY OPENS THE 
500 MB WAVE...WHILE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE CLOSED 
LOW LIFTING TOWARDS HUDSON BAY AND A SECOND SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN 
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE TROF. BLENDED SOLUTION OF HPC FOLLOWED WITH 
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WAA AHEAD 
OF TROF...THEN SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF COLD 
FRONT TRAILING FROM SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS CANADA. HEAVY RAIN A 
POSSIBILITY BUT MAY BE LIMITED IF SECONDARY LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM 
FRONT HINTED AT BY BOTH MODELS DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH. 
DRY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE 
REGION. 12Z GFS REMAINS FASTER IN ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH NEXT 
SYSTEM FOR LATE WEEK THAN ECMWF. AGAIN PLAYED A MIDDLE GROUND SLOWER 
APPROACH WITH TIMING BASED ON GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF. HPC TEMP 
GUIDANCE FOLLOWED AS A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN WARMER MEX AND COOLER 
ECMWF 2 METER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR 
CIGS COULD HANG AROUND INTO EARLY EVENING IN THE EAST. WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING...STAYING LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. 
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT TO BKN LOW TO MID 
CLOUDS TOMORROW...BUT EXPECT CIGS TO STAY VFR. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED 
SHOWER OR TWO EARLY TOMORROW...BUT CHANCE TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN 
TAFS.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND WAVES DECREASED DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BOTH 
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY EARLY EVENING. THEREFORE THE SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL 
STILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. 
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT/LONG TERM...09
AVIATION/MARINE...07